MESOP RESEARCH BY “INSTITUTE OF MODERN RUSSIA” The Iran Deal: Moscow Crossed Another “Red Line”

21 April 2015 – Donald N. Jensen – On April 13, Russian president Vladimir Putin cleared the way for the long-postponed delivery of Russian S-300 missiles to Iran. He thus demonstrated his determination to boost Russia’s economic and security ties to Tehran in the wake of a new interim deal curbing Iran’s nuclear program. Donald Jensen, resident fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations, argues that Russia is likely to be the big loser from such a deal over the long term. 

Russia’s planned sale of Russian S-300 missiles to Iran was cancelled in 2010 under pressure from the West, but the recent lifting of the ban has removed a major irritant in bilateral relations between the two countries. A senior Russian official has stated that Russia has also begun supplying grain, equipment, and construction materials to Iran in exchange for crude oil—an arrangement that could eventually be worth up to $20 billion to Russia. The announcement of this deal coincided with the arrival of a high-level Iranian delegation in Moscow for a meeting of the security secretaries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). While Russia and China are key members of SCO, Iran has observer status and is moving toward joining, but is currently blocked by United Nations sanctions.

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IRAN WON’T GIVE UP ON ITS REVOLUTION / By Soner Cagaptay, James F. Jeffrey & Mehdi Khalaji

New York Times – April 26, 2015 – Given Iran’s hegemonic history under the Safavids, the Shah, and the mullahs alike, Washington should not expect the regime to compromise its principles any time soon. The announcement last month of a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran has led some to believe that Tehran will now enter the international system as a responsible actor. But such optimism ignores the fact that Iran’s current government still bears the imprint of a long imperial history and longstanding Persian regional ambitions.Iran is a revolutionary power with hegemonic aspirations. In other words, it is a country seeking to assert its dominance in the region and it will not play by the rules. Yet, the Obama administration hopes a nuclear agreement will have a “transcendental effect” on Iran and convince it to abandon its imperial aspirations in return for a sense of normalcy.

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MESOP TODAYS COMMENTARY BY : Matthias Kuentzel on Germany, Iran & the Bomb

April 26, 2015, – In the last post, I mentioned Matthias Kuentzel’s Germany and Iran: From the Aryan Axis to the Nuclear Threshold. It should be of interest to anyone interested Germany’s role in the Iran nuclear issue. The book was published in Germany in 2009 and in the United States in 2014. The American edition, published in 2014, includes an epilogue that deals with the nuclear negotiations up to 2013. Kuentzel is also the author of Jihad and Jew-Hatred: Nazism, Islamism and the Roots of 9/11, which was published in Germany in 2002 and in the United States in 2007. That work remains an important contribution to tracing the ideological lineages from Nazism, through Islamism to the Islamist terror of recent years.

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MESOP STRATEGY : Delivery of the S-300 Aerial Defense Systems to Iran: Signaling a Change in Russia’s Middle East Policy

EAST KURDISTAN (IRAN) – INSS Insight No. 688, April 26, 2015 – Udi Dekel , Zvi Magen Udi Dekel

On April 13, 2015, Russia announced the release and upcoming delivery of the advanced S-300 aerial defense systems to Iran. The shipment had been held up for the last six years, even though Russia contended that these systems were meant for defensive rather than offensive purposes and despite the fact that Iran had already paid for them. Israel cannot ignore the development, but it must also avoid creating a serious crisis with Russia. Therefore Israel would do well to signal Moscow that it intends to reexamine a host of issues relating to Russia, including Israel’s “neutrality” on the Ukraine crisis; potential arms deals between Israel and Russia’s neighbors, something Israel has so far avoided because of Russian opposition; the Russian initiative regarding the political process with the Palestinians, especially if it is not coordinated with the United States; a balancing of Russian interests regarding the supply of natural gas to the nations in the Middle East and Europe; and support for the Sunni Arab states in fighting the Iranian axis and its proxies in the Middle East.

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MESOP: THE IRANIAN DANGER FOR KURDISTAN – Iranian Army Reinforcements on Kurdistan Region Border / Iranian army to launch a military drill on the borders with KRG

Basnews | Hersh Rahman – 23 Aprl 2015 – ERBIL – The Islamic Republic of Iran has been increasing army personnel on the borders with the Kurdistan Region over the last two days.

This mobilisation of the Iranian army equipped with heavy weapons, is most noticeable in the areas of Sardasht and Piranshar, close to the eastern borders of the Kurdistan Region, BasNews understands. Military experts confirmed the news and said, “The Iranian army soon is going to launch a drill on the borders with the Kurdistan Region in which heavy weapons will be used.”

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Defense bill takes aim at Iran / Congress is targeting Iran with the piecemeal release of its annual defense bill over the next few days.

Author Julian PecquetPosted April 21, 2015 – The must-pass legislation is expected to contain multiple provisions demanding that the Obama administration continue treating Iran as a US foe even as the two countries negotiate a nuclear agreement, aides tell Al-Monitor. Already, preliminary text released April 21 by the House Armed Services Committee calls on the Pentagon to establish a strategy for countering Iran’s “growing unconventional warfare capabilities.”

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MESOP : Open letter of Ali Khamenei’s nephew to the US president Barak Obama

I believe that any agreement or concession that is not associated with basic conditions in reality will only be assisting this regime in achieving its indecent goals.

Dear Mr. President

I am presenting this open letter as one of the serious opponents of the Islamic republic of Iran on behalf of the like-minded opposition groups and myself. Because of my knowledge of this regime, especially of Ali Khamenei who is my uncle (my mother’s brother), I see it as my duty to inform you about this regime and the issue of nuclear negotiations with the Islamic regime of Iran.

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Zunahme der Hinrichtungen im Iran nach dem Rahmenabkommen zu Atomwaffen in Lausanne

Anzahl der Hinrichtungen 2014: 1200  /  Anzahl der Hinrichtungen 2015: bisher 400

Anzahl der Hinrichtungen vom 12. bis zum 18. April: 81.

Das bedeutet 12 Hinrichtungen am Tag. Nahezu alle 2 Stunden wird ein Mensch hingerichtet.

Unter der Präsidentschaft Hassan Rohanis wurden mehr als 1600 Menschen durch Erhängen hingerichtet, darunter Jugendliche, Frauen, Arbeiter, Homosexuelle, Minderheiten und Regimegegner.

Die deutsche Bundesregierung verschließt die Augen vor den Szenen der Hinrichtungen! Und während die Anzahl an Hinrichtungen unter Rouhani exponentiell ansteigt, fordert Bundeskanzlerin Merkel den Westen auf, die Sanktionen gegen das atomare menschenverachtende Regime möglichst geschlossen aufzuheben, Reuters 14.04.2015.



Russia Wants to ‘Redesign’ the Middle East

Russia thinks American policy in the Middle East has been irresponsible, but is pursuing a strategy where Iranian power would dominate. – By Gedalyah Reback – 21 April 2015 – Israelnational News – Under the radar last week, Vladimir Putin met with Mahmoud Abbas in Moscow. The meeting was not considered remarkable as Abbas has started to visit the Kremlin on an annual basis. The timing, though, corresponded with Putin’s definitely remarkable announcement Russia would reinitiate its sale of S-300 missiles to Iran. According to Sarah Fainberg of the Institute for National Security Studies, it is hard to ignore the correlation.“The official announcement that Putin was lifting the ban happened a few hours after Russia received Abbas in Moscow. It might be just a coincidence. But at this level of decision-making, coincidences are rare. It is sending a message about Russia’s intentions in the Middle East.”

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Von Sebastian Baltzer + Pascal Schneiders

Die Deutsch-Iranische Industrie- und Handelskammer in Teheran sucht einen neuen Geschäftsführer. So schnell wie möglich soll er loslegen – nicht nur, weil der bisherige Kammerchef, Daniel Bernbeck, im Sommer seine neue Stelle in Malaysia antritt. Sondern auch deshalb, weil es in den nächsten Monaten für seinen Nachfolger mehr als genug zu tun geben wird. Ende Juni soll das von den fünf Vetomächten der Vereinten Nationen und Deutschland ausgehandelte Atomabkommen mit Iran stehen. Dann dürften auch die seit zoo6 geltenden und 2012 deutlich verschärften Wirtschaftssanktionen gegen das mit seinem Erdöl reich gewordene, von dem jahrelangen politischen Konflikt aber wirtschaftlich zurückgeworfene Land gelockert werden. Und die deutschen Unternehmen, die ihre früheren Geschäftsbeziehungen wieder aufnehmen wollen, werden dazu jede Hilfe brauchen können. Denn ihren Platz haben längst andere eingenommen.

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