MENA WATCH: WE ACCEPT NEW OBAMA DEAL – Gantz: Israel can ‘live with’ new Iran nuclear deal

 

Defense Minister Benny Gantz tells Foreign Policy journal that he can “accept” US approach of “putting Iran back in its box,” but wants to see a “viable Plan B.”

By  ILH Staff , Erez Linn ISRAEL HAYOM  15.9.2021

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MENA WATCH : Intelligence Officials Warn Al-Qaeda Could Rebuild in Afghanistan Within 1-2 Years

CNN – The Soufan Group 15.9.2021
Al-Qaeda could rebuild inside Afghanistan in one to two years, top intelligence officials said Tuesday, noting that some members of the terrorist group had already returned to the country. Earlier this year, top Pentagon officials said al-Qaeda could reconstitute in two years. They told lawmakers after the fall of the Afghan government that they were revising that timeline. “The current assessment probably conservatively is one to two years for al-Qaeda to build some capability to at least threaten the homeland,” Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said Tuesday at the annual Intelligence and National Security Summit. David Cohen, the deputy director of the CIA, said the CIA was closely watching “some potential movement of al-Qaeda to Afghanistan,” but noted the challenge of determining when al-Qaeda or the ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan would “have the capability to go to strike the homeland.”

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken defended the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in his second day of hearings before lawmakers on Tuesday. Testifying to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Blinken insisted withdrawing was the right move and said the Trump administration’s February 2020 peace deal with the Taliban had tied President Biden’s hands. “Even the most pessimistic assessments did not predict that government forces in Kabul would collapse while U.S. forces remained,” he noted. Blinken said the administration would hold the Taliban to their promises not to allow Afghanistan to be used as a base for terrorist attacks.

During the hearing, committee chairman Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) called the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan “clearly and fatally flawed.” He also threatened to subpoena Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin after the Pentagon chief declined to appear at the hearing alongside Blinken, and suggested he could oppose Pentagon nominees based on Austin’s no-show. “A full accounting of the U.S. response to this crisis is not complete without the Pentagon — especially when it comes to understanding the complete collapse of the U.S. trained and funded Afghan military,” Menendez noted. “I expect that the secretary will avail himself to the committee in the near future,” he said, adding, “If he does not, I may consider the use of the committee’s subpoena power to compel him and others to testify.” In a statement, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said Austin “regrets that conflicting commitments made that appearance impracticable.” Austin is scheduled to testify before the Senate Armed Services Committee on September 28. New York Times, Bloomberg, Washington Post, Associated Press, Politico
Related:
CNN: Biden Overruled Blinken and Austin’s Attempts to Extend U.S. Presence in Afghanistan, New Woodward/Costa Book Says
Politico: Congress’ New Afghanistan Challenge: Bipartisan Oversight of Biden’s Pentagon
Roll Call: Congress’ Afghanistan Watchdog will Continue Oversight
CNN: Hawley Says He’ll Hold up State and Defense Department Nominees Unless Blinken and Austin Resign

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MENA WATCH : WHAT SHOULD THE UNITED STATES EXPECT FROM A TALIBAN GOVERNMENT?

THE SOUFAN CENTER  15.9.2021
  • Just last week, the Taliban installed several members of the Haqqani Network in senior government positions, including Sirajuddin Haqqani as interior minister and Khalil Haqqani as minister for refugees.
  • The threat posed by Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) looks likely to bring the Taliban and al-Qaeda even closer together.
  • Because the Taliban has now assumed responsibility for governing Afghanistan, its bandwidth to monitor al-Qaeda and other jihadist groups will be limited.
  • There is major concern in Washington DC and allied capitals about the future role played by external actors in the region, especially Iran, Pakistan, Russia, and China.
Twenty years after being ousted by United States-led forces, the Taliban have returned to power in Afghanistan. Just last week, the Taliban installed several members of the Haqqani Network—an insurgent group and subset of the Taliban—in senior government positions, including Sirajuddin Haqqani as interior minister and Khalil Haqqani, Sirajuddin’s uncle, as minister for refugees. Both Haqqani appointees are wanted by U.S. authorities for their involvement in terrorist activities; Sirajuddin Haqqani has a $10 million bounty on his head through the State Department’s Rewards for Justice Program and a $5 million bounty through the FBI, and the FBI is also offering a $5 million reward for information leading to Khalil Haqqani’s arrest. The former Haqqani is described as a specially designated global terrorist, while the latter has been accused of acting on behalf of al-Qaeda and linked to al-Qaeda “terrorist operations.” The Haqqani network, which is a part of the Taliban, was designated as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) on September 19, 2012, nearly nine years ago. The Haqqani Network remains responsible for some of the most devastating attacks against civilians during the last two decades of conflict. Moreover, several members of the government are listed under UN sanctions regimes, complicating political engagement and the delivery of humanitarian assistance and support where designated terrorist groups or individuals are involved.

The Taliban is now in charge of Afghanistan and has never broken its relationship with al-Qaeda. With al-Qaeda leaders pledging bayat (allegiance) to the Taliban, the latter is the senior partner in the arrangement. The Haqqani Network is the connective tissue that links al-Qaeda with the Taliban. The Taliban and al-Qaeda need each other—the Taliban benefits from al-Qaeda’s continued support, which is a force multiplier, and al-Qaeda depends on the Taliban to provide safe haven and sanctuary to reestablish its base of operations and regrow its network. The threat posed by Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) serves to bring the Taliban and al-Qaeda even closer together. While it does not behoove the Taliban to allow al-Qaeda to set up shop on Afghan soil if al-Qaeda’s goal once again becomes targeting the West—the Taliban just regained power, and it doesn’t want to risk losing it as a result of an al-Qaeda attack in Europe or the United States—there are serious doubts about whether the Taliban could prevent al-Qaeda from perpetrating such an attack if they possessed the appropriate means and determination. Moreover, it may be necessary in that case for the international community to consider if there is willingness to give the Taliban any incentive for cooperation with Western powers.

Former U.S. State Department Coordinator for Counterterrorism Nathan Sales suggested that al-Qaeda could regenerate its external operations planning capabilities within six months, and the Central Intelligence Agency and the Defense Intelligence Agency have assessed that al-Qaeda could rebuild in a year or two. As Ali Soufan has noted, it took from just 1996 for the organization to go from a nascent entity to the 9/11 attacks, benefitting in great part from international inattention and the instability in Afghanistan. Because the Taliban is now tasked with governing the war-torn country of Afghanistan, its bandwidth to monitor al-Qaeda and other jihadist groups in the country will be limited. Even if al-Qaeda does not seek to immediately rebuild its networks with the intention of attacking the West, it could do so with the aims of becoming a major player once again throughout South Asia.

There are a number of regional scenarios that could afford al-Qaeda the opportunity to play a more significant role beyond Afghanistan’s borders. While the international community is struggling to discern exactly what to make of a Taliban-led government in Afghanistan, the notion of a “kinder, gentler” Taliban is preposterous, as evidence of civilian killings, violence against women, and media restrictions continue to mount. The gains of a generation of Afghan women are likely to be nullified completely, and the Taliban appear to have strategically aimed their violence to discourage a new generation of professionals, educators, and the media from building on the progress made to date. The Taliban in 2021 is the same as the Taliban of twenty years ago, especially in terms of ideology. The Taliban may temporarily be more pragmatic in its public declarations and dealings, particularly while media attention is still on Kabul, as they are a learning organization, fully aware of the risks of immediately reverting to pre-September 11, 2001 form, and can be expected to divert to their hardline stance as the world’s attention eventually shifts to addressing other crises.

The Taliban’s leadership is aware of the importance of garnering political legitimacy and recognition, having lobbied the UN Security Council to be removed from the (“1267”) terrorism sanctions regime, and in the interest of securing formal recognition by international actors as the government of Afghanistan. Moreover, their behavior will also be shaped by the pressure to secure promises of foreign aid to meet the many needs of the Afghan people. Food shortages have been exacerbated following the takeover and the World Food Programme has stated that nearly 14 million Afghans are on the brink of starvation. The international community will be necessary for Afghanistan to avoid a major humanitarian catastrophe, and the UN Special Envoy on Afghanistan, Deborah Lyons, told the Security Council recently that it was crucial for Afghanistan to be able to access the nearly $10 billion of its central bank assets to stave off a “total breakdown of the economy and social order.” There is also major concern in Washington, D.C and allied capitals about the future role played by external actors in the region, especially Iran, Pakistan, Russia, and China. Whether the United States likes it or not, these countries will all have a more hands-on role in the future stability (or instability) in Afghanistan, just when the U.S has fewer resources on the ground. Some of these countries are likely already cultivating proxy forces or preparing for the next phase of the conflict.

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MENA WATCH : UN report adds to claims that Turkish-backed militias are committing war crimes in Syria

15.9.2021 ERBIL (Kurdistan 24) – A new report issued on Tuesday by the United Nations’ Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria suggests that Turkish-backed groups in the embattled Middle Eastern nation have “committed torture, cruel treatment and outrages upon personal dignity, including rape and other forms of sexual violence, which constitute war crimes.”

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MESOP NEWS : WURZELTIEFES WESENHAFTES ESSENTIAL = UR-JUDENTUM !

LILar: ARABISCHEN Spaßvögeln muß entgangen sein daß Jerusalem seit 3000 Jahren judaisiert ist. Die Juden wurden vertrieben,aber sie kommen immer in „ihre“ Stadt zurück.

Mena-Watch

Sep 14

Botschaft von Al-Qaida zum 9/11-Jahrestag: „Jerusalem wird nicht judaisiert werden“.

 

Wer zuerst kommt – mahlt zuerst ! Alle wurzellosen Spätheimkehrer zählen nur apart! (UR-DEUTSCHE AUFFASSUNG, fremdenfeindlich, rassistisch)

www.mesop.de

 

MENA WATCH  : : CIA sees early signs of al-Qaeda regrouping in Afghanistan, says US official

 

 by Josph Fitsanakis INTEL ORG 15-9-2021

AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES ARE noticing early signs that al-Qaeda may be regrouping in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, according to the deputy director of the United States Central Intelligence Agency. The presence of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan was the primary reason behind the invasion of the country by the United States in 2001. In subsequent years, the militant group, which was behind the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, suffered heavy losses, and saw its members disperse across the region. Many others were captured or killed.

Now, however, with the Taliban back in power in Afghanistan, there are concerns that al-Qaeda may make a comeback in the war-torn country. Under the leadership of Osama bin Laden, al-Qaeda worked closely with the upper echelons of the Taliban in the 1990s and early 2000s. Contacts between the two groups continue to exist, and could potentially deepen following the exit of the United States and its Western allies from Afghanistan.

On Tuesday, David Cohen, who serves as deputy director of the CIA, said that American intelligence agencies are closely monitoring the situation. Speaking at the Intelligence and National Security Summit in Washington, DC, Cohen acknowledged that the shuttering of the United States embassy in Kabul, as well as the closure of a network of CIA stations across Afghanistan, had “diminished” the ability of American intelligence agencies to assess conditions on the ground. He added, however, that current intelligence reports indicate “some potential motion of al-Qaeda [returning] to Afghanistan”.

Cohen added that much of the intelligence that has been collected in recent weeks comes from “over-the-horizon platforms”, meaning that the collection is taking place from countries that border Afghanistan. However, the CIA in particular is already working to develop “methods to work within the horizon”, he said. At the moment, the United States intelligence community estimates that it could take al-Qaeda between one and two years to amass its former strike capability, so as to directly threaten American interests.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 15 September 2021

MENA WATCH : „Diverses Parlament”: Das ZDF träumt vom Libanon

Das ZDF findet unser Parlament nicht divers genug +erklärt auf einer interaktiven Webseite, „welche Bevölkerungsgruppen im Bundestag fehlen – und warum das ein Problem ist“.

„Dem deutschen Volke“ steht über dem Westportal des Reichstages in Bronze

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MENA WATCH : Wiederaufbau des syrischen Militärs: Bedeutung für Israel

Nach einem Jahrzehnt eines blutigen Bürgerkriegs hat der Prozess des Wiederaufbaus des syrischen Militärs begonnen, das immer noch mit Rebellen an verschiedenen Orten des Landes konfrontiert ist. Russland und der Iran kämpfen um Einfluss in diesem Wiederaufbauprozess, und Syriens Militär wird vermutlich in den kommenden Jahren von ihnen abhängig bleiben. Da dies direkte Auswirkungen auf Israel hat, wie könnte Jerusalem diese Situation angehen?

 Anat Ben Haim INSS Insight Nr. 1519, 15. September 2021 ISRAEL

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MENA WATCH :Rebuilding the Syrian Military: Significance for Israel

After a decade of a bloody civil war, the process of rebuilding the Syrian military – which still faces pockets of rebels in various locations in the country – has begun. Russia and Iran are struggling for influence in this reconstruction process, and Syria’s military will presumably remain dependent on them in the coming years. As this has direct implications for Israel, how might Jerusalem address this situation?

 Anat Ben Haim INSS Insight No. 1519, September 15, 2021 ISRAEL

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MENA WATCH : Kurdistan’s Weekly Brief, September 14, 2021
A weekly brief of events occurred in the Kurdistan regions of Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey.
Iran 

  • The Iranian regime acted on its previous threats to carry out operations in Iraqi Kurdistan by dispatching warplanes, UAVs, and at least one suicide drone to attack Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDP-I) positions near Erbil Governorate’s Choman and Sadikan subdistricts on Thursday and Friday. The Cooperation Center for Iranian Kurdistan’s Political Parties (CCIKP) condemned the attacks, which damaged property but caused no reported casualties, and accused the Iranian regime of “running away from dozens of internal crises by creating another.” The CCIKP also called for the Government of Iraq (GOI), Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), international community, and freedom seekers to “put an end to the regime’s violations.”
  • The Hengaw Organization for Human Rights reported Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps intelligence officers (Ettela’at) tortured a Kurdish activist named Yasir Mangori to death in Urmia. Moreover, Iranian security forces detained eight Kurds in Mehabad, two siblings, Bahrouz and Rasul Azizi, in Sanandaj (Sena), Kamil Salahi in Baneh, and a teenager named Mohammed Fardani in Sardasht. Lastly, Mehabad’s Islamic Revolutionary Court sentenced a Kurdish man named Saed Fathi to four years and two months in prison for “membership in a Kurdish opposition party.”
  • Iranian border guards killed a Kurdish border porter (kolbar) named Rasul Karimi and wounded three near Baneh on Saturday. Iranian border guards also wounded two shepherds in the same area on Friday. Lastly, Iranian authorities killed a kolbar named Sirwan Golzari near Marivan, and another was injured when he fell from a cliff near Nowsud.

Iraq 

  • Iranian-backed militias targeted US personnel stationed at Erbil International Airport with two suicide drones late Saturday, but US defense systems shot down both drones and ensured the attack caused no casualties and minimal disruption of airport activities. The US and KRG both condemned the attacks, while several Kurdish officials also blamed a lack of cooperation between Iraqi forces and the Peshmerga in the “Disputed Territories” for creating a security environment favorable to Iranian proxies and called for the implementation of several previous agreements intended to facilitate joint operations. Saturday’s attack, which was the sixth in Erbil since September 2020, coincided with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Khadimi’s visit to Tehran that was intended to reduce the number of Iranian proxy operations in Iraq.
  • ISIS (Da’esh) again exploited the fragile security situation in the “Disputed Territories” by killing a police officer and three civilians near Makhmour on Saturday. That said, the US provided the Peshmerga and Iraqi forces with additional equipment to bolster their ability to combat terrorist organizations.
  • The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) ended its four-year absence from Kirkuk by launching a parliamentary election campaign in the governorate. KDP candidate Shakhwan Abdullah claimed the party intends to reopen its Kirkuk headquarters, which was occupied and closed by Iraqi security forces on October 16, 2017, next week. Meanwhile, Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) has formed a committee to supervise the nation’s parliamentary elections scheduled for October 10, though lack of primary services and sectarian and ethnic tensions have led to expectations of low voter turnout.
  • Turkish warplanes injured two civilians and damaged homes in Sulaymaniyah Governorate’s Sangaser subdistrict last Tuesday. Ongoing Turkish operations in Iraqi Kurdistan, which Turkey has repeatedly claimed are targeting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), have killed dozens of civilians and forced the evacuation of hundreds of villages.

Syria 

  • The League of Arab States (LAS) held its 156th session of foreign ministers in Cairo on Thursday and released a statement that rejected Turkish aggression in Turkey and Libya and called for Turkey to stop “hosting radical groups” and withdraw its forces from Arab states. The LAS statement also denounced Iran’s “continuous interference in Arab affairs” and emphasized the necessity of Iran halting its support of groups that fuel conflicts on Arab soil.
  • The Turkish military and its Islamist proxies shelled several villages in Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlled territory near Ain Essa, Tal Tamer, and Manbij last week. Turkish artillery strikes also wounded two Syrian Arab Army (SAA) personnel west of Turkish-occupied Giri Sip (Tal Abyad). That said, the SDF announced it repelled Turkish-backed fighters’ attempt to infiltrate several areas northwest of Manbij.
  • The head of the SDF’s Office of Media and Information, Farhad Shami, released footage that purportedly shows several members of the Turkish-backed “Sunni Hawk” group torturing a civilian. Simultaneously, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported Turkish proxies in Afrin arbitrarily arrested five Kurdish civilians, seized a Kurdish man’s house, and imposed levies on residents in Barrad village for harvesting their crops.

Tukey 

  • In an op-ed published in Turkish news outlets, the jailed Kurdish politician and former head of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), Selahattin Demirtaş called on Turkey’s components to work together in the upcoming “most important” elections. “Kurds, Alevis, conservatives, socialists, Kemalists, democratic nationalists, should be able to act together over common ground,” said Demirtaş, claiming that if not, then Turkey’s ruling party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) will try to make its “authoritarian regime permanent.” Demirtaş’s remarks come as the HDP faces closure by the government and Turkish opposition parties have yet to form any alliances for the 2023 elections.
  • On Thursday, the 5th High Criminal Court in Diyarbakir (Amed) held a new hearing for the jailed Kurdish politician and co-founder of the Rosa Women’s Association, Ayla Akat Ata. The Turkish government has accused Ata of “making propaganda for a terrorist organization” in what has become known as the “Kobani Trial.” Furthermore, during a hearing against another prominent Kurdish activist, Ayşe Gökkan, the judge had lawyers removed and court police attempted to arrest several of those related to Gökkan who were in attendance. Meanwhile, the Turkish police arrested a human rights activist named Tahir Tüyben in Mersin for social media posts.

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