DECADE OF PATIENCE: HOW CHINA BECAME A POWER IN THE WESTERN BALKANS / EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON  FOREIGN RELATIONS  – 2. Febr 2021

• China has become the most prominent third actor in the Western Balkans.
• The country’s activities are spread unevenly across the region, but they follow a common approach.
• This approach is marked by China’s wide-ranging efforts to establish itself in key economic areas and to gradually position itself as an indispensable actor.
• China is slowly transforming its interactions with Western Balkans countries in sectors such as culture, media, and politics into long-term and institutionalised relationships.
• As European and US ambivalence towards the Western Balkans persists, the region will be in increasing danger of falling into an endless spiral of competition between various foreign actors.
• Western policymakers should address the widening developmental gap between the region and the EU through initiatives such as targeted investment plans in energy and infrastructure, sectoral integration frameworks, and the frontloading of EU law in the accession process.

China is faking its nonchalant attitude towards the Western Balkans. It actually has a well-thought-out strategy in the region, in many instances, and it continuously works on expanding and embedding its presence across the Western Balkans. The process appears to be accelerating at a time when there is an emerging Western consensus on the challenges posed by Beijing’s forays into the region.

The latest policy brief by Vladimir Shopov, visiting policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations – Decade of patience: How China became a power in the Western Balkans – explores the newfound wariness of China on the one hand, and on the other, the country’s public image as a source of huge economic opportunities in an era of geopolitical change.  

The author argues China is on the cusp of acquiring real leverage over policy choices, political attitudes, and narratives in some parts of the Western Balkans, and that Western policymakers’ first response to these challenges should be to map them out and to try to anticipate how China will develop its activities in the Western Balkans. The EU and NATO could go some way towards addressing this through regular, well-structured, and comprehensive monitoring and analysis of Chinese activity in the region, including closing the development gap and gaining public support.

Vladimir Shopov, visiting policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, states, 

“Beijing’s wider political, social, and cultural initiatives there deserve a great deal of attention – which they are only now beginning to receive. China is moving onto a new stage of engagement with the Western Balkans, implementing a policy of heightened interaction with various parts of society in numerous policy areas.” 

The paper describes China’s expansive approach to the Western Balkans, which centres on the development of numerous relationships with individuals and institutions. These relationships – which involve everything from infrastructure and energy to culture, the media, and party politics – are intended to promote Chinese narratives and interests. To this end, Beijing has exploited the geopolitical ambivalence of many Western capitals, grasping the opportunities to invest in strategically important sectors that arise from the persistent development between the Western Balkans and the EU, as well as the region’s lack of sustained political and economic convergence with the bloc.

Vladimir Shopov adds, 

“Chinese leaders have capitalised on a political affinity with elites in captured states. Beijing is creating incentives for cooperation within these insider groups and beyond, with many citizens of Western Balkans countries adopting a transactional mindset as their dreams of European integration fade. This process is gradually leading to the emergence of an economic and political ecosystem in which China and the Western Balkans have significant shared interests.” 

About the author

Vladimir Shopov is currently a visiting policy fellow at ECFR. He has a wide range of experience as policy adviser to Bulgarian ministers and institutions, and as a diplomat during the country’s EU accession negotiations. Shopov has provided consultancy and research services to numerous Western companies in a range of fields. He has been a guest lecturer at European and Asian policy institutes and universities and is currently an adjunct professor at Sofia University. Shopov has engaged in project work with various policy institutes in areas of Asian affairs, EU studies, soft security, and EU conditionality.

Media enquiries

The author is available for comment and interview. For all requests, please contact ECFR’s communications director, Ana Ramic (ana.ramic@ecfr.eu).

About ECFR

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is a pan-European think-tank that aims to conduct cutting-edge independent research in pursuit of a coherent, effective, and values-based European foreign policy. With a network of offices in seven European capitals, over 60 staff from more than 25 different countries and a team of associated researchers in the EU 27 member states, ECFR is uniquely placed to provide pan-European perspectives on the biggest strategic challenges and choices confronting Europeans today. ECFR is an independent charity and funded from a variety of sources. For more details, please visit: www.ecfr.eu.

The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. This report, like all publications of the European Council on Foreign Relations, represents only the views of its author.