Synopsis: Civil society’s rejection of oppressive regime practices, especially towards women, shows no signs of waning anytime soon. The regime’s contradictory statements to mollify the protest movement by reining in the Morality Police were muddled at best and viewed less as a sincere conciliatory measure and more as a desperate attempt to shift the narrative away from the regime’s brutal crackdown. While regime change may not be on the immediate horizon, the momentum clearly puts the regime on notice that change could arise sooner rather than later.

Protest Movement Undeterred

According to UN officials, hundreds of Iranians have been killed and thousands have been arrested since the protests began following the mid-September arrest and death of Zhina Mahsa Amini in the hands of Iranian authorities. Barely two weeks into the protests, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei blamed Israel and the U.S. for the “chaos” in Iran, one of the earliest desperate attempts by the regime to deflect blame away from the regime’s internal failed policies.

Despite the regime’s relentless attempt to violently suppress the largely women-led protests, the strength of the movement continues unabated. In fact, support for the protesters has spread far beyond Iran’s boarders and has even reached the World Cup soccer events in Doha. The Iranian national team was chastised by their own government for their silent protest in support of the movement, while some members of the U.S. soccer federation briefly altered the Iranian flag as a show a solidarity to Iranian protesters. Within the U.S. domestically, murals depicting far reaching support for Iranian women’s rights have appeared in several major cities.

It’s Not Just About the Morality Police

Conflicting reports, and inconsistent statements among Iranian officials, surround the fate of Iran’s notorious Morality Police. The now disputed comments by Iran’s Attorney General on the future of that unit demonstrate less of a public relations debacle and more of Iran’s futile attempt to mollify the protesters by offering a hallow gesture which grossly underestimates the depth and complexity of the long simmering discontent by Iranian civil society. At the same time, his comments could simply reflect the reality that, as local sources have recently noted, the presence of the Morality Police has been markedly reduced of late either by design or simply due to insufficient numbers to remain even nominally effective.

The archaic act of hijab enforcement and its potentially disastrous results is not the only or even the most significant social issue in Iran. But those fateful regime actions in mid-September directly impacted at least half of the population and provided the spark which ignited a chain reaction that sent a clear and unambiguous message directly to Tehran. In that message, the women of Iran bravely raised their voices to tell the regime that they have long reached their limit to oppressive and arbitrary policies aimed at limiting personal freedoms that are enjoyed by societies throughout the modern world. As such, they refuse to let regime brutality extinguish their thirst for a better life.

Iranian Regime Put on Notice

In 2010 and 2011, the Arab Spring protests rose up and rocked several countries in the Middle East and North Africa. As with similar protests over the years, the results were mixed as new governments sometimes proved less effective than previous governments and, in many cases, the movements eventually lost momentum due to a variety of reasons, including brutal reprisals.

Iraq experienced its own grassroots movement in recent years, with the October 2019 protests leading to a change in government and a series of snap elections. Unlike the previous protests that were often led by disenfranchised Sunni youth, Iraq’s protest movement found its greatest strength in the Shia heartland, and the results have been profound. Resolution of key grievances, however, such as fighting corruption, improving job opportunities for Iraqi youth, and providing basic services such as electricity and water remain to be seen.

For its part, Iran also experienced waves of modern protests, arguably most notably the Green Movement which had shown remarkable resilience despite numerous setbacks over the years. The nature of today’s movement, in contrast, is something that the regime has not seen lately in terms of scope and impact. In short, Iranian women refuse to back down, and their profound courage has inspired large swaths of Iranian civil society, in particular younger women and girls, to follow them.

Additionally, Iranian-Kurdish opposition parties are gaining strength on a daily basis and remain dedicated towards reaching a consensus on a post-regime government dedicated to supporting and protecting the Iranian people. Given this prospect, there’s no wonder that concerns have emerged by the regime for doubting their longevity in what they had considered for decades as their fundamental right to control all of Iran in perpetuity.

Next Steps

The regime is clearly troubled by their lack of an effective response to the protest movement, and their most recent violent actions demonstrate a desperate strategy of deflection. Rocket attacks into the Iraqi Kurdistan Region and military threats along the border are nothing more than a pretext for drawing attention away from the regime’s lack of resolving their own internal problems. Iran’s attempts to drag the Iraqi Kurds into an armed dispute demonstrate a complete disregard for Iraqi sovereignty as well as a misguided and dangerous attempt to challenge Iraq’s political will during the first weeks and months of a new government in Baghdad.

For an outside perspective, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence noted on December 2 that the Iranian government does not see the ongoing protests in Iran as an “imminent threat to the regime.” For their part, senior Israeli military intelligence officials stated recently that the Iranian regime can survive the current protests. However, as one official added, “Seen long-term, it would appear this regime will not survive.”

Woven among these views, the underlying message from the U.S. and Israel is clear in that regime survivability is likely in doubt and that Iran’s root problems will remain for years to come and could eventually prove the regime’s undoing. Whether such changes occur sooner rather than later will most probably depend largely on the will of the Iranian people and the ability of civil society to provide a credible alternative form of leadership that could bring Iran out of the dark shadows and into the light of the modern world.

Change must occur from within Iran’s borders, and the regime will have no one to blame but themselves. “Women, Life, Freedom” – more than a slogan; it’s a statement of hope and intent.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here represent those of the author and not necessarily those of the WKI.