• On October 16, the 20^th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is set to open and will determine China’s leadership for the next term, including the likely re-election of Xi Jinping, who is consolidating power and influence.
• China’s economic slowdown—accelerated by prolonged lockdowns due to the CCP’s “dynamic zero-COVID” policy—is the key domestic issue facing Xi’s rule.
• The usually carefully scripted and planned Party Congress—void of public debate—conceals the years of political maneuvering, guanxi (alliance) building, and lobbying that has led up to the selection of officials for key positions in the party during the event.
• It is expected that following the Party Congress, Xi—as the Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC)—will continue to move forward with the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

As propaganda banners fill the streets of Beijing, the usually carefully scripted and planned Party Congress—void of public debate—conceals the years of political maneuvering, guanxi (alliance) building, and lobbying that has led up to the selection of officials for key party positions during the event. Critically, the Party Congress will yield the composition of the 20^th Politburo and its Standing Committee (PSC), with the latter being the most powerful decision-making body in China. While it is commonly understood that Xi yields ultimate decision-making power in the government, the composition of the 20^thPolitburo and its Standing Committee will provide insights into how successful Xi is in his venture to eliminate opposition and promote protégés that would support his ambition of lifetime rule.

China’s economic slowdown—accelerated by prolonged lockdowns due to the CCP’s “dynamic zero-COVID” policy—is the key domestic issue facing Xi’s rule. The World Bank forecasts that China’s 2022 GDP growth will be 2.8 percent, falling noticeably short of the CCP’s March “guidance” of 5.5 percent. Observers continue to look for signs of whether Xi will ease the zero-Covid policy following the Party Congress; however, other economic woes plague the Chinese economy as well, including the ongoing real estate crisis. Additionally, both domestic and foreign policy decisions appear to have made economic engagement with China less attractive for Western markets and companies. In September, the president of the European Chamber of Commerce in China noted that no new European companies had entered the Chinese market since 2020, with many European companies losing interest in continued investment in the country—instead looking elsewhere in Asia.

If Xi consolidates power, the aggressive foreign policy that has come to characterize his tenure is likely to continue. It is expected that following the Party Congress, Xi—as the Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC)—will continue to move forward with the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). With four of the six current CMC members likely to retire, the composition of the CMC following the Party Congress will yield important insights into Xi’s priorities for China’s armed forces, including the Eastern Theater Command (Taiwan Strait). Last week, Chinese government officials hailed the progress of China’s foreign policy and diplomacy under Xi—dubbed “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy exemplified by brazen statements, including on social media, by Chinese diplomats. The most recent example of China’s “wolf warriors” was in full swing over the weekend, piggybacking off Russian disinformation narratives insinuating that the United States orchestrated the sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines in the Baltics.

With war raging in Europe and a revanchist Russia undeterred, Xi’s expected consolidation of power presents geopolitical challenges in the Indo-Pacific for the United States and allies, especially related to freedom of navigation, international trade, and the uncertainty of military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. In addition, throughout his rule, Xi has capitalized upon nationalist sentiments at home to shore up support, including by criticizing the US-led world order and Western attempts to stymie China’s power. With an economic downturn in China, Xi and the CCP will likely continue appealing to nationalist sentiments—an unpredictable force that cannot always be controlled by the political elite.