Turkish army armored vehicle.

The press conference where the SDF forces announced the results of Operation Deterrence of Terrorism (Kurdistan 24, June 10, 2020)

Overview

• This week there was an additional decline in the scope of ISIS’s activity around the globe, as part of a trend that has lasted for several weeks. The main reason for this appears to be ISIS’s concentrated effort to carry out the wave of attacks in the second half of May (the Raids of Attrition). Iraq continued to be the focal point of ISIS’s activity (18 attacks, about 40% of all the attacks), while attacks in Nigeria took the lead this week in terms of the number of fatalities.
• ISIS’s difficulties with its media network: ISIS’s Amaq News Agency has significantly reduced its publications. Routine reports from the various provinces have been significantly reduced, and Telegram (which serves as ISIS’s central distribution platform) continues to shut down ISIS-affiliated accounts.
• In the Idlib region in northern Syria, the erosion of the Russian-Turkish ceasefire continues. This week as well, local incidents between the Syrian army and the rebel organizations continued, albeit at a lower intensity than the previous week.

The Idlib region

Overview

The ceasefire in the Idlib region continued this week, with local incidents between the rival sides. The joint patrols of the Russian and Turkish armies on the M-4 highway continue without unusual incidents. Two senior commanders in the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Guardians of Religion Organization were eliminated in a targeted killing carried out by a UAV (apparently American), which attacked their vehicle in the city of Idlib^[1].

Main events on the ground

Ground activity

• On June 13, 2020, the rebel organizations halted a Syrian army infiltration attempt in the northeastern Al-Ghab Plain, about 40 km southwest of Idlib (Idlib Plus, June 13, 2020).

Artillery fire

• On June 13, 2020, the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham reported that the Syrian forces had fired artillery at roads in the Turkmen Mountain, southwest of Idlib (Ibaa, June 13, 2020).
• On June 12, 2020, the Syrian forces fired artillery at an area 20 km south of Idlib (Idlib Plus, June 12, 2020).

Russian airstrikes

• On June 13, 2020, Russian fighter jets carried out an airstrike in the area of Jabal Zawiya, about 25 km south of Idlib (Idlib Plus, June 13, 2020).
• On June 13, 2020, Russian fighter jets carried out airstrikes in the rural area south of Idlib (Edlib Media Center – EMC, June 13, 2020).

Joint patrols on the M-4 highway continue

• This week, the joint patrols of the Russian and Turkish armies continued uninterrupted. On June 10, 2020, Turkey and Russia carried out their 16th joint patrol on the M-4 highway (Aleppo-Latakia), reaching an area about 14 km east of Jisr al-Shughur (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, June 14, 2020). It was reported that for reasons as yet unclear, the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham had evacuated all its checkpoints on the M-4 highway (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, June 14, 2020). On June 16, 2020, another joint patrol was carried out, without any unusual incidents (Anatolia, June 16, 2020).

Turkish army reinforcements

• On June 14, 2020, a Turkish army convoy entered Syria. The convoy, which included 20 trucks carrying cast concrete structures, made its way to the M-4 highway (Khotwa, June 14, 2020). In the ITIC’s assessment, the concrete structures were intended to set up positions in areas where the Turkish army is deployed, possibly due to Turkish concern over another outbreak of hostilities.

     
Right: Turkish army armored vehicle. Left: Turkish army truck carrying concrete structures (Khotwa, June 14, 2020)

Two senior Al-Qaeda-affiliated commanders killed

• On June 14, 2020, a UAV (apparently American) attacked a vehicle in the city of Idlib carrying two commanders of the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Guardians of Religion Organization. They were both killed. The senior among them was Khaled al-Arouri, codenamed Abu al-Qassem al-Urduni (i.e., the Jordanian). He was a Palestinian with Jordanian citizenship who served as the Guardians of Religion Organization’s military commander (he was formerly Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi’s deputy in Al-Qaeda). The other operative killed was another commander in the organization, Bilal al-San’ani (i.e., from Sana’a, Yemen). Another operative was severely wounded (Khotwa, June 14, 2020).

   
The vehicle carrying the two commanders of the Guardians of Religion Organization, which was hit by a missile (Moussa Al Hassan@MoussaNDT Twitter account, June 14, 2020)

Setting up a new operations room affiliated with Al-Qaeda

• On June 12, 2020, five jihadi organizations affiliated with Al-Qaeda announced the establishment of a new operations room called “Stand Fast.” The operations room is led by the Guardians of Religion Organization and includes four other marginal jihadi organizations: Jama’at Ansar al-Islam (“the Group of Islam Supporters”), Jabhat Ansar al-Din (“the Front of Religion Supporters”), Tansiqiyat al-Jihad (“Coordination of Jihad”), and Liwa al-Muqatileen al-Ansar (“Brigade of Fighters-Supporters”) (Telegram, June 12, 2020).
• Three jihadi organizations which were members of the “Awaken the Believers” operations room joined the new operations room. Thus, the “Awaken the Believers” operations room, active since October 2018, has been shut down and replaced by the new operations room.

Northeastern Syria

The area of Deir ez-Zor, Al-Mayadeen, and Albukamal

• On June 15, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle about 50 km northeast of Deir ez-Zor. The passengers were killed or wounded (Isdarat, June 16, 2020).
• On June 15, 2020, ISIS operatives raided the headquarters of an SDF local council about 8 km southeast of Al-Mayadeen. The head of the local council was killed by machine gun fire (Telegram, June 15, 2020).
• On June 14, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle about 10 km north of Albukamal. The passengers were wounded (Isdarat, June 15, 2020).
• On June 9, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle in the village of Al-Basira, about 14 km north of Al-Mayadeen. The vehicle was damaged (Isdarat, June 10, 2020).

SDF counterterrorist activity

• On June 4, 2020, the SDF forces launched Operation Deterrence of Terrorism in the region extending from the rural area south of Al-Hasakah to the Euphrates Valley. Ground forces of the SDF and the International Coalition countries operated in coordination with Coalition aircraft and the Iraqi forces near the Iraqi-Syrian border.
• The first phase of the operation ended on June 10, 2020. During the mopping up activity, which was accompanied by special commando operations, the forces detained 110 suspected ISIS supporters. In addition, large quantities of weapons were seized, including handguns with silencers used to carry out targeted killings, and many explosives (SDF Press, June 10, 2020).

Eastern Syria (the area of Al-Sukhnah and Palmyra)

• On June 11, 2020, ISIS operatives attacked a Syrian army checkpoint in the rural area of Al-Sukhnah, about 60 km northeast of Palmyra. Five Syrian soldiers and fighters of the forces supporting them were killed (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, June 11, 2020).
• On June 10, 2020, Syrian soldiers were targeted by machine gun fire northwest of Al-Sukhnah, about 60 km northeast of Palmyra. Three soldiers were killed and two motorcycles were seized (Isdarat, June 10, 2020). Photos released in the media show the bodies of three men in civilian clothes. ISIS claims that they were Syrian soldiers (Isdarat, June 10, 2020).

The desert area east of Hama

• On June 11, 2020, ISIS operatives attacked positions of the Syrian army in the area of Oqayrabat (about 70 km east of Hama). Three fighters of forces supporting the Syrian army were killed and several others were wounded (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, June 11, 2020).
• In response, on June 11, 2020, Syrian fighter jets attacked sites where ISIS operatives are deployed in the Oqayrabat area. At the same time, the Syrian army fired artillery and carried out mopping up activity in areas east and northeast of Hama, searching for ISIS squads. In total, 21 ISIS operatives and 13 Syrian soldiers and fighters supporting them were killed in those incidents (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, June 14, 2020).

The Iraqi arena

Iraq’s leading position in ISIS’s activity

• Iraq continues to be the hub of ISIS’s activity: on June 11, 2020, ISIS released an infographic entitled “The Harvest of the Fighters,” summing up its activity in the various provinces between June 4 and June 11, 2020. A total of 44 attacks were carried out by ISIS around the world, a figure significantly lower than the number of attacks in the period preceding the Raids of Attrition.
• A total of 18 attacks (about 41%) were carried out in Iraq, which remained the center of ISIS’s activity. In addition, 9 attacks (about 20%) were carried out in ISIS’s West Africa Province, 7 (about 16%) in Syria, 2 in Central Africa, 2 in the Sinai Province, 2 in the Somalia Province, 1 in the Libya Province, 1 in the Yemen Province, 1 in the East Asia Province (the Philippines), and 1 in the Khorasan Province (Al-Naba’, as published in Isdarat, June 11, 2020). According to the infographic, over 142 people were killed and wounded in ISIS’s attacks around the globe. The largest number of fatalities and wounded was in the West Africa Province (40), followed by the provinces of Iraq (38), East Asia (18), Central Africa (15), Syria (14), Sinai (10), Somalia (4), Yemen (2), and Khorasan (1).

Iraqi estimate of the number of ISIS operatives

• Hisham al-Hashemi, researcher of radicalism and terrorism, estimates that over 7,000 ISIS operatives are currently operating in Iraq and Syria. He notes that ISIS lacks both funds and a supportive environment (Al-Sumaria, June 15, 2020).

Main activities carried out by ISIS in the past week

Diyala Province

• On June 13, 2020, civilians of the Kakaiya sect were targeted by sniper fire about 100 km northeast of Baqubah. Seven people were killed and others were wounded. When an Iraqi army force arrived at the scene to provide assistance, it was also targeted by sniper fire. Three soldiers were killed and five others were wounded (Telegram, June 14, 2020). Note: The Kakaiya is an ancient monotheist sect, mostly Kurdish. Its members, living mainly in northern Iraq, are considered infidels by ISIS and are persecuted by it (like the Yazidis).

Salah al-Din Province

• On June 14, 2020, a Popular Mobilization fighter was targeted by machine gun fire about 25 km north of Baghdad. He was wounded (Isdarat, June 15, 2020).
• On June 13, 2020, the house of the deputy governor of the Salah al-Din Province, about 80 km north of Baghdad, was targeted by machine gun fire. Two of his security guards were wounded (Isdarat, June 15, 2020).
• On June 10, 2020, an Iraqi police compound was targeted by machine gun fire about 40 km southeast of Samarra. One policeman was killed (Isdarat, June 10, 2020).
• On June 9, 2020, an IED was activated against a mine sweeping vehicle of the Iraqi government counterterrorist unit west of Baiji. The passengers were killed or wounded (Isdarat, June 10, 2020).

Baghdad Province

• On June 9, 2020, a Popular Mobilization commander was targeted by machine gun fire about 20 km southeast of Baghdad. He was killed (Isdarat, June 10, 2020).

Nineveh Province

• On June 15, 2020, an IED was activated against the vehicle of a Tribal Mobilization fighter about 35 km southwest of Mosul. The passengers were wounded (Isdarat, June 16, 2020).

Kirkuk Province

• On June 15, 2020, Iraqi soldiers were targeted by machine gun fire and an IED was activated against them about 40 km north of Kirkuk. Three soldiers were killed and four others were wounded (Isdarat, June 16, 2020).

Al-Anbar Province

• On June 14, 2020, Iraqi soldiers were targeted by sniper fire about 3 km west of Hit. Two soldiers were killed and another was wounded (Isdarat, June 14, 2020).
• On June 13, 2020, two IEDs were activated against two Iraqi army vehicles, about 20 km west of Hit. The passengers of both vehicles were killed or wounded (Isdarat, June 14, 2020).

Babel Province

• On June 11, 2020, a Popular Mobilization fighter was targeted by sniper fire about 40 km southwest of Baghdad. He was killed (Isdarat, June 11, 2020).
• On June 11, 2020, an IED was activated against a Popular Mobilization vehicle about 40 km southwest of Baghdad. One fighter was killed and another was wounded (Isdarat, June 11, 2020).

Counterterrorist activities by the Iraqi security forces

Al-Anbar Province

• On June 16, 2020, Iraqi security forces apprehended three ISIS operatives in Al-Qaim (near the Iraqi-Syrian border). One of them was in charge of ISIS’s billing activity and the other two were fighters who took part in the fighting against the Iraqi security forces during the battles for the liberation of Iraq (Iraqi Ministry of Defense, June 16, 2020).

Nineveh Province

• On June 16, 2020, an Iraqi Interior Ministry Intelligence force apprehended six ISIS operatives in various parts of the Nineveh Province (Al-Sumaria, June 16, 2020).

Diyala Province

• On June 15, 2020, an Iraqi Interior Ministry Intelligence force apprehended three “terrorist operatives” (implicitly ISIS operatives) about 40 km east of Baqubah (Al-Sumaria, June 16, 2020). The three had planted IEDs and activated them recently. Three IEDs were also seized (Al-Sumaria, June 15, 2020).