MESOPOTAMIA NEWS : Iraq Situation Reports:February 13 – 25, 2020 BY Institute for the Study of War
ISW is assessing the ongoing unrest and its effects on political-security dynamics in Iraq. The Iraq Situation Report (SITREP) map series summarizes key events and likely developments to come. The following set of SITREP maps covers the period February 13 – 25, 2020.
Key Takeaway: Iran’s proxy network is escalating its anti-U.S. campaign. The proxy network is likely responsible for a rocket attack on February 13 that targeted the same military base in Kirkuk Province where Katai’b Hezbollah killed a U.S. contractor in December 2019. An Iranian proxy leader and U.S.-designated terrorist, Akram al-Kaabi, announced during a speech in Tehran on February 14 that all of the “resistance” has shifted to an offensive phase of anti-U.S. operations. The United States directly intervened in the process of Allawi’s cabinet formation by sending high-level officials to meet or urge competing Iraqi power brokers – Sunni, Kurdish, and Shi’a – to force consensus in support of Allawi’s premiership.
Key Takeaway: Iran’s inability to contain the Coronavirus allowed the disease to spread to Iraq, whose health institutions are poorly equipped to manage the potential pandemic. Iraq is vulnerable due to the hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons, congested anti-government demonstrations, and routine pilgrimages by religious observers across the region, particularly from Iran. Failure to contain the virus could lead to greater anti-Iranian sentiment among Iraqis. Iraq imports billions of dollars in cross border trade from Iran per year. Restricted movement will lead to increased prices on basic necessities.