Overview
- The ceasefire is being maintained in the Idlib region of northern Syria, but there has been an increase in the number and severity of local incidents between the warring sides. This week, a car bomb (according to another version, an IED) was activated against one of the vehicles of the Russian forces during a joint Russian-Turkish patrol on the M-4 highway (Aleppo-Latakia). Three Russian soldiers were slightly wounded (and apparently some Turkish soldiers as well) and the joint patrol was stopped. Local media reported Russian airstrikes and Syrian army artillery fire at areas controlled by the rebel organizations, apparently in response to the attack.
- In the Iraq Province, ISIS’s main area of activity, ISIS’s attacks continued, mainly the activation of IEDs against the Iraqi security forces and Shiite militias (the Popular Mobilization). At the same time, the Iraqi security forces continued to carry out counterterrorist activity. All this, against the backdrop of the increase in the COVID-19 morbidity rate in Iraq (nearly 30,000 active cases, including 420 patients in serious condition, and 3,150 deaths). According to a report based on Iraqi and American security sources, ISIS is now reorganizing its forces in order to increase the scope of its activity and also carry out showcase attacks, in anticipation of a new state of chaos in Iraq or the departure of US and International Coalition forces (Al-Hurra, July 8, 2020 ).
- This week, Nigeria was the most active of ISIS’s provinces in Africa and Asia. According to ISIS, more than 50 Nigerian soldiers were killed in an ISIS ambush in the northeast of the country. According to reports published this week (requiring verification), the leader of Abu Sayyaf, the central organization comprising ISIS’s East Asia Province, was wounded in battle against the Philippine army and died of his wounds. If the report is correct, this is a severe blow to the East Asia Province.
The Idlib region
Incidents in the Idlib region between the Syrian army and the jihadi organizations
- On July 14, 2020, the Syrian forces fired artillery at the outskirts of the city of Ariha, about 10 km south of Idlib (Idlib Plus, July 14, 2020). This may have been a response to the detonation of the car bomb/IED.
- On July 10, 2020, there were clashes between the rebel organizations and the Syrian forces about 35 km south of Idlib (Edlib Media Center – EMC, July 10, 2020).
- On July 9, 2020, the Syrian forces fired artillery at two villages about 40 km south of Idlib (Edlib Media Center – EMC, July 9, 2020).
- On July 9, 2020, the Syrian forces fired artillery at two villages north of Maarat Nu’man (Idlib Plus, July 9, 2020).
Detonation of a car bomb (or an IED) against the joint patrol on M-4
- On July 14, 2020, a car bomb (or an IED) was detonated against one of the vehicles of the Russian forces during a joint patrol with the Turks. The explosion occurred when the vehicle passed through the Ariha area, about 12 km south of Idlib. Several Russian soldiers were wounded. A video documenting the explosion was posted on a number of Telegram channels, including one affiliated with Islamic rebels who operate under Turkish sponsorship (Enab Baladi, a Syrian news website affiliated with the rebel organizations, July 14, 2020).
- According to Russian media, the explosion was caused by an IED planted at the spot and activated against the patrol at dawn. As a result of the explosion, three Russian soldiers were slightly wounded and several Turkish soldiers were wounded as well. The patrol was immediately stopped. The Russian forces in Syria are investigating the incident with Turkish and Syrian security officials (RT news agency; TASS, July 14, 2020). The Turkish Defense Ministry announced that “terrorist operatives” (i.e., jihadi rebel organizations) activated a car bomb to disrupt the efforts to secure peace in Idlib (Enab Baladi, July 14, 2020).
Right: A moment before the car bomb exploded. Left: The explosion of the car bomb (Ebu El Furkan @slaam46 Twitter account, affiliated with the Damascus Center for Political Studies in Istanbul, July 14, 2020)
UAV attack against the Russian airbase in Hmeymim
- On July 12, 2020, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that two UAVs that had taken off from the Idlib area had attempted to attack the Russian airbase in Hmeymim on July 11, 2020. Head of the Russian Reconciliation Center Rear Admiral Alexander Shcherbitsky said that the two aircraft had come from the northeast and had been intercepted by the airbase aerial defense system at a distance of about 5 km from the Hmeymim airbase (Sputnik, July 12, 2020).
ISIS’s activity in the various provinces
- On July 9, 2020, ISIS released an infographic entitled “The Harvest of the Fighters,” summing up its activity in the various provinces on July 2-8, 2020. According to the infographic, a total of 56 attacks were carried out by ISIS around the world, compared to 60 in the preceding week. A total of 18 attacks (about 32%) were carried out in Iraq, which continues to be the main arena of ISIS’s activity. In addition, 11 attacks (about 19%) were carried out in Syria, eight (about 16%) in the Sinai Province, seven (about 12%) in West Africa (mainly in Nigeria), four in East Asia (the Philippines), three in Yemen, one in India, one in Somalia, one in Central Africa, and one in Pakistan (Al-Naba’ weekly, July 9, 2020).
- According to the infographic, over 185 people were killed and wounded in the attacks. The largest number of casualties (66) was in West Africa (Nigeria often represents the deadliest battle zone although most of the attacks take place in Iraq). The other casualties were in the provinces of Syria (28), Iraq (26), the Sinai Peninsula (24), Yemen (16), East Asia (the Philippines), Central Africa (6), India (3), Somalia (3), and Pakistan (1) (Al-Naba’ weekly, July 9, 2020).
The Syrian arena
The region of Deir ez-Zor, Al-Mayadeen, and Albukamal
- On July 11, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF fighter riding a motorcycle about 14 km north of Al-Mayadeen. He was wounded (Telegram, July 12, 2020).
- On July 8, 2020, an SDF fighter was targeted by machine gun fire about 14 km north of Al-Mayadeen. He was killed (Telegram, July 10, 2020).
Al-Raqqah region
- On July 11, 2020, an IED was activated against a bus carrying fighters of the Syrian forces about 25 km northwest of Al-Raqqah. About 10 soldiers were killed or wounded (Telegram, July 12, 2020).
Al-Sukhnah region
- On July 11, 2020, ISIS squads reportedly attacked outposts of militias handled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in the Al-Sukhnah Desert. Ten militiamen were killed. Afterwards, Russian fighter jets reportedly attacked the ISIS operatives and (mistakenly) hit a group of militia operatives. Two operatives were killed and seven wounded (Zaman Al-Wasl, July 12, 2020).
The Iraqi arena
This week, ISIS carried out intensive activity in western and northern Iraq. The common form of attack was the detonation of IEDs against the Shiite militias (Popular Mobilization Forces) and the Iraqi security forces. At the same time, the Iraqi security forces’ counterterrorist activity continues, in spite of the upsurge in COVID-19 morbidity (the number of confirmed cases doubled within two weeks and the number of deaths increased[1]).
Attacks last week in Iraq according to ISIS’s claims of responsibility
Baghdad Province
- On July 7, 2020, an IED was activated against a Shiite gathering site near a mosque in the southwestern part of Baghdad. Several Shiites were killed or wounded (Telegram, July 9, 2020).
Diyala Province
- On July 13, 2020, an IED was activated against the Popular Mobilization forces about 15 km northeast of Baqubah. Three sappers were killed (Telegram, July 14, 2020).
- On July 13, 2020, two IEDs were activated against Popular Mobilization fighters about 40 km northeast of Baqubah. Four fighters were killed and others were wounded (Telegram, July 14, 2020).
- On July 12, 2020, two IEDs were activated against a foot patrol and forces of the Popular Mobilization northeast of Baqubah. Two commanders and a fighter were killed and five others were wounded. Another IED was activated against a Popular Mobilization vehicle west of Khanaqin. Three fighters were killed and three others were wounded (Telegram, July 13, 2020).
- On July 11, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi police vehicle about 20 km southwest of Khanaqin. Two policemen were killed and others were wounded (Telegram, July 13, 2020).
- On July 11, 2020, an IED was activated against a Popular Mobilization vehicle about 100 km northeast of Baqubah. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, July 12, 2020).
Wreckage of the Popular Mobilization vehicle destroyed by an ISIS IED (Telegram, July 14, 2020). The Popular Mobilization emblem is visible on it”.
Salah al-Din Province
- On July 12, 2020, an Iraqi police vehicle was targeted by machine gun fire about 70 km north of Baghdad. One policeman was killed (Telegram, July 13, 2020).
- On July 12, 2020, an Iraqi police compound was targeted by machine gun fire about 80 km north of Baghdad. One policeman was wounded (Telegram, July 13, 2020).
- On July 11, 2020, an IED was activated against a Popular Mobilization vehicle about 20 km southeast of Tikrit. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, July 12, 2020).
- On July 10, 2020, two Grad rockets were fired at Shiite gathering sites in the area of Amirli, about 80 km east of Tikrit. According to ISIS, accurate hits were observed (Telegram, July 11, 2020).
- On July 7, 2020, an IED was activated against a vehicle of the Iraqi government counterterrorist unit west of Tikrit. The passengers, including two officers, were killed or wounded (Telegram, July 9, 2020).
Nineveh Province
- On July 12, 2020, an IED was activated against a vehicle about 15 km south of Mosul. Three soldiers were killed (Telegram, July 14, 2020).
- On July 7, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army “agent” about 45 km southwest of Mosul. He was wounded (Telegram, July 8, 2020).
Al-Anbar Province
- On July 9, 2020, two Popular Mobilization intelligence operatives were targeted by machine gun fire west of Hit, 135 km northwest of Baghdad. Both of them were killed (Telegram, July 10, 2020).
- On July 7, 2020, ISIS operatives attacked an Iraqi army headquarters east of Al-Rutba. Several soldiers were killed or wounded. The headquarters was destroyed and a communications tower there was set on fire (Telegram, July 8, 2020).
Kirkuk Province
- On July 11, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi police vehicle about 50 km west of Kirkuk. Five federal policemen were killed (Telegram, July 11, 2020).
- On July 11, 2020, a Tribal Mobilization compound was targeted by machine gun fire about 60 km west of Kirkuk. Two fighters were killed (Telegram, July 11, 2020).
Counterterrorist activities by the Iraqi security forces
Diyala Province
- On July 12, 2020, an Iraqi army force operating against ISIS as part of Operation Heroes of Iraq located six canisters of explosives about 50 km northeast of Baqubah. In addition, the force found IEDs, a generator, two oil tanks, and mortar shells (Facebook page of the Iraqi Defense Ministry, July 12, 2020).
- On July 12, 2020, an Iraqi army force operating as part of Operation Heroes of Iraq about 60 km north of Baqubah located two ISIS guesthouses. They also found a tunnel used by ISIS and six IEDs (Facebook page of the Iraqi Defense Ministry, July 12, 2020).
Nineveh Province
- On July 11, 2020, teams of the Iraqi Interior Ministry Intelligence Directorate captured 11 wanted ISIS operatives in various areas in the Nineveh Province (Al-Sumaria, July 11, 2020).
Report on ISIS’s new organizational structure
- On July 8, 2020, the Al-Hurra TV (an American Arabic-language channel) aired a presentation detailing ISIS’s new organizational structure in Iraq, created after Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi’s death (October 27, 2019). The presentation is based on Iraqi intelligence sources and on a report by the Center for Global Policy operating in Washington. It was prepared by Hisham al-Hashemi (a senior Iraqi researcher on security and Islamic movements, who was shot dead on July 6, 2020 in Baghdad; the assassin was probably affiliated with Kataeb Hezbollah, a Shiite militia handled by the Iranian Qods Force).
- According to the Al-Hurra report, ISIS is now composed of 14 provinces and five ministries (in Arabic: dawawin, singular: diwan). In addition, there is a directorate (in Arabic: idarah) which is in charge of running ISIS’s provinces outside Syria and Iraq. Following the loss of its territorial control zones, ISIS canceled the directorates which were responsible for the morality police (Al-Hisba) and the provision of services to the population. Local commanders were reportedly given more extensive powers in everything that pertains to the executive matters. According to the presentation, ISIS currently includes 3,500-4,000 fighting operatives as well as 8,000 members who are not currently active (Note: In the ITIC’s assessment, these numbers seem low, possibly related only to the Iraq Province).
- According to the report, American and Iraqi security sources agree that Al-Baghdadi’s successor is codenamed Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Qurashi, and his real name is Amir Mohammad Sa’id al-Salbi al-Mawla (Note: He usually goes by the codename of Haji Abdallah). Al-Baghdadi’s successor heads the new organizational structure. There are two supreme committees subordinate to him:
- The Shura Committee / the Consulting Committee (Lajnat al-Shura): It is headed by Haji Jum’ah Awad al-Badri, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi’s brother. The role of the committee is to outline policy and select the heads of the provinces. The Shura Committee includes five office holders: Abu Mohammad al-Masri, Abu Hashem al-Jazrawi, Naif Hamad Shayya’, Abu Sa’ad al-Libi, and Abu Abdallah al-Ghulami.
- The Appointed Committee (Al-Lajna al-Mufawwadah): This is ISIS’s supreme executive body. It is headed by Sami Jassem al-Jabouri. Under Al-Jabouri’s command there are five office holders in charge of matters such as security, finance, religious matters, and media. The Appointed Committee supervises the heads of ISIS’s provinces, including the head of the Iraq Province, Jabbar Salman al-Issawi.
According to the Al-Hurra report, ISIS operatives detained in Iraq confirmed that the airstrikes carried out by the International Coalition were the main reason for the organization’s defeat. They noted that after the withdrawal of the Coalition forces from Iraq, ISIS would once again carry out showcase attacks. ISIS currently focuses its efforts on reorganizing its ranks in an anticipation of a new state of chaos in Iraq or the withdrawal of the International Coalition forces led by the US from Iraq, to increase the scope of its activity once again.