MESOPOTAMIA NEWS INTEL BY MEIR AMIT CENTER / ISRAEL – Spotlight on Global Jihad (January 7-13, 2021)

Main events of 2020

• Last week, ISIS published several infographics, summing up the activity of its provinces in Iraq and Syria in 2020. According to these infographics, and according to the ITIC’s data and several publications, five provinces stood out in 2020:
  • The Iraqi Province remains the epicenter of ISIS’s activity and reorganization. In Iraq, there was a sharp increase in the scope of ISIS’s activity, with the largest number of attacks (a total of 1,422, averaging close to 120 attacks per month). Most of the attacks (499) were carried out in the Diyala Province, a mixed Sunni-Shiite region north of Baghdad. Most of the attacks were “simple” guerrilla operations in the form of planting IEDs, shooting attacks, sniper fire and targeted killings. ISIS’s most notable successes in 2020 were the killings of several senior Iraqi army officers with the ranks of brigadier general and colonel. However, ISIS still refrained from carrying out complex attacks such as the deployment of large-scale forces or deadly suicide bombing attacks.
  • The Syria Province is in second place among the various provinces in the volume of attacks (593). Most of ISIS’s activity focused on the Euphrates Valley and the deserts in eastern Syria. A smaller number of attacks were carried out in the Daraa region in southern Syria and north of Aleppo, near the Syrian-Turkish border. Most of the attacks were “simple” guerrilla operations in the form of planting IEDs, shooting attacks, and targeted killings. However, ISIS carried out several deadly attacks in deserts in eastern Syria, a region where the scope and quality of activity of the attacks are on the rise.
  • The West Africa Province (Nigeria and its neighbors): This province ranks third among ISIS’s provinces in the number of attacks (385) and first in terms of the number of fatalities in these attacks. From northeastern Nigeria, the epicenter of the West Africa Province, ISIS’s activity also spills over to Nigeria’s neighbors (Niger, Mali, Chad and Burkina Faso). Terrorism researchers believe that the countries of Africa, which are preoccupied with coping with the COVID-19 crisis and are characterized by domestic political instability, are gradually becoming ISIS’s most important area of activity at the global level.
  • The Sinai Peninsula: In the northern Sinai Peninsula, ISIS operatives continued to carry out successful guerrilla attacks against the Egyptian security forces, which repeatedly failed to provide an effective response to ISIS’s activity. ISIS’s peak achievement in 2020 was a large-scale attack against the Egyptian army near the village of Rabi’a, west of Bir al-Abd (about 30 km from the Suez Canal). Dozens of soldiers were killed in the attack, after which ISIS operatives took control of several villages in this region and held them for about three months, until the Egyptian security forces managed to drive them out.
  • Afghanistan (Khorasan Province): In Afghanistan, ISIS recovered from the blow that it had suffered at the hands of the Afghan army with US support in the Nangarhar Province (southwest of Kabul). In February 2020, the Khorasan Province resumed its activity after several months of inactivity. Most of ISIS’s activity was carried out in the capital Kabul and it included deadly suicide bombing attacks. From Kabul, ISIS’s activity spilled over into additional provinces The attacks represent an effort on ISIS’s part to take advantage of the political uncertainty stemming from the US-Taliban agreement and the intention of the US to withdraw from Afghanistan. An increase in ISIS’s power in Afghanistan could lead to its activity spilling over to India and other countries in Southeast Asia.
• ISIS is optimistic about the global developments which, in ISIS’s assessment, may facilitate its activity in 2021. An article published in ISIS’s Al-Naba’ weekly claims that after the elections, the US will be preoccupied with its internal affairs, at the expense of activity outside its borders, and this is expected to weaken the International Coalition against ISIS. The article notes that the US has already significantly reduced its activity against ISIS around the world on the false grounds that ISIS has been defeated.

The Syrian arena

Summary of ISIS’s activity in Syria in 2020

ISIS’s attacks in Syria in 2020

Type of attacks by ISIS in Syria in 2020

• According to ISIS’s data, 1,327 people were killed and wounded in attacks carried out in 2020. The highest number of casualties, higher by far than in the other provinces, was in the Euphrates Valley and the desert region west of it (908). It is followed by the desert region in the western part of the provinces of Homs and Hama (194); northern Aleppo Province, i.e., the area near the Syrian-Turkish border (97); Al-Hasakah Province in northeastern Syria (72); and the Daraa region in southern Syria (56).
• The highest number of casualties in ISIS’s attacks was among the SDF fighters (901). In the ITIC’s assessment, the Kurdish SDF forces were the main target of ISIS’s attacks in the Euphrates Valley. They are followed by the Syrian army and the forces supporting it (407 soldiers and fighters, most of whom killed in the desert region in eastern Syria) and the Free Syrian Army (19 fighters who, in the ITIC’s assessment, were killed near the Syrian-Turkish border).

The Syrian arena

The Idlib region

ISIS’s activity in Syria^[3]

The region of Deir ez-Zor and Al-Mayadeen

• On January 11, 2021, an SDF intelligence operative was targeted by machine gun fire in the village of Shahil, about 10 km north of Al-Mayadeen. He was killed.
• On January 9, 2021, an IED was activated against a convoy. One of the vehicles in the convoy carried a senior IRGC commander, an Iranian named Hajj Gholam Hossein Dehghan. He was killed along with two of his escorts (Khotwa, January 10, 2021; ISNA, January 11, 2021). Iranian sources reported that Hajj Gholam Hossein Dehghan had died of COVID-19 on January 9, 2021; they did not mention the said incident (Ayn Al-Furat, Eye of Euphrates, January 10, 2021). So far, no organization has claimed responsibility for the attack, but it was probably ISIS.

• On January 9, 2021, an SDF fighter was targeted by gunfire about 10 km northeast of Deir ez-Zor. He was killed.
• On January 8, 2021, an SDF headquarters was targeted by machine gun fire and RPG rockets in the village of Shahil, about 10 km north of Al-Mayadeen. One fighter was killed and another was wounded.
• On January 8, 2021, an SDF fighter was targeted by machine gun fire about 20 km north of Al-Mayadeen. He was killed.
• On January 7, 2021, two SDF vehicles were targeted by machine gun fire about 10 km north of Al-Mayadeen. Two fighters were killed and two others were wounded.
• On January 5, 2021, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle about 5 km northeast of Al-Mayadeen. The passengers were wounded.

The desert region (Al-Badia)

• On January 11, 2021, a vehicle carrying two Republican Guard officers was attacked on the Ithriya-Khanaser road (northeast of Hama). They were wounded. The Syrian army sent reinforcements to the scene of the incident (Khotwa, January 11, 2021). So far, no organization has claimed responsibility for the attack, but it was probably ISIS.
• On January 10, 2021, ISIS squads exchanged fire with fighters of the Homeland Defense Forces who were carrying out searches in the Deir ez-Zor Desert. Several fighters of the Homeland Defense Forces were killed (@ALBADIA24 Twitter account, January 10, 2021). So far, no organization has claimed responsibility for the attack, but it was probably ISIS.
• On January 8, 2021, a bus carrying three officers and nine soldiers of the Homeland Defense Forces was attacked about 70 km northeast of Hama. The charred remains of the bus were found. The fate of the officers and soldiers who were inside is unknown (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, January 10, 2021). So far, no organization has claimed responsibility for the attack but in the ITIC’s assessment, it was probably ISIS.

Counterterrorism activities in the desert region

• On January 7, 2021, an IED was activated against a vehicle carrying a commander in the Palestinian Al-Quds Brigade, on the Deir ez-Zor-Palmyra highway (about 50 km southwest of Deir ez-Zor). The commander was killed (@ALBADIA24 Twitter account, January 7, 2021). ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that the vehicle was destroyed and all the passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, January 9, 2021).

   
The wreckage of the Palestinian Al-Quds Brigade commander’s vehicle
(Telegram, January 9, 2021)

• On January 7, 2021, an IED was activated against a Syrian army vehicle on the Ithriya road, about 100 km northeast of Hama. An officer serving in the Suheil al-Hassan forces was killed (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights; Al-Badia 24, January 7, 2021). So far, no organization has claimed responsibility for the attack, but it was probably ISIS.
• On January 8, 2021, the Syrian army along with the forces supporting it carried out a search operation in the Jabal al-Bishri region, west of Deir ez-Zor. The operation was launched after recent escalation in ISIS’s attacks, killing dozens of Syrian soldiers and fighters of the forces supporting them (Deir ez-Zor 24, January 8, 2021).

Al-Raqqah region

• On January 10, 2021, an IED was activated in central Al-Raqqah against the vehicle of a judge in the SDF courts. He was wounded.
• On January 9, 2021, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle northwest of Al-Raqqah. The passengers were killed or wounded.

Al-Hasakah region

• On January 9, 2021, an intelligence operative of the International Coalition was targeted by machine gun fire about 80 km south of Al-Hasakah. He was killed.
• On January 7, 2021, an IED was activated against an Al-Qaterji tanker carrying oil for the Syrian regime, southwest of Al-Hasakah. It was damaged.

 The Iraqi arena

Summary of ISIS’s activity in Iraq in 2020

Breakdown of ISIS attacks in the various provinces

• Types of attacks carried out by ISIS: Activation of IEDs (485); sniper fire (334); exchanges of fire (252); targeted killings (94); and “other attacks”^[4]. The targets were the Iraqi army; security, intelligence and police personnel; the Popular Mobilization forces (Shiite militias sponsored by the Iraqi regime) and the Tribal Mobilization forces (Sunni militias sponsored by the Iraqi regime); the Peshmerga (the Kurdish military force); “collaborators” and “agents”.

Types of attacks in Iraq in 2021

• A total of 2,748 people were killed and wounded in the attacks. The highest number of casualties, by far greater than in other provinces, was in the Diyala Province (724), where the largest number of attacks was carried out. The other casualties were in the following provinces: Salah al-Din (643); Al-Anbar (567); Kirkuk (474); Baghdad (210); Babel (104); and Nineveh (26). The level of deadliness of the attacks in Iraq, i.e., the ratio between the number of attacks and number of casualties, was about two casualties per attack. Most of the attacks carried out by ISIS were “simple” guerrilla actions with a relatively small number of casualties (even though 2020 also witnessed some showcase targeted killings, such as the killing of several senior Iraqi army officers with the ranks of brigadier general and colonel).

ISIS attacks in the various provinces^[5]

Diyala Province

Killing of a senior Popular Mobilization officer

• On January 11, 2021, ISIS operatives activated several IEDs inside a Popular Mobilization compound about 40 km northeast of Baqubah. An officer with the rank of brigadier general was killed along with his escort. Several other fighters were wounded (Telegram, January 12, 2021).

Other incidents

• On January 11, 2021, two Iraqi soldiers were targeted by machine gun fire about 5 km south of Baqubah. They were both killed.
• On January 10, 2021, a fighter of the Iraqi counterterrorism unit was targeted by machine gun fire about 20 km northeast of Baqubah. He was killed.
• On January 6, 2021, a Popular Mobilization fighter was targeted by machine gun fire about 40 km northeast of Baqubah. He was wounded.
• On January 5, 2021, Iraqi soldiers were targeted by machine gun fire about 80 km northeast of Baqubah. Three soldiers were killed and another was wounded.

Salah al-Din Province

• On January 8, 2021, an Iraqi army compound was targeted by machine gun fire and hand grenades about 30 km north of Baghdad. One soldier was wounded.
• On January 7, 2021, an Iraqi army compound was targeted by machine gun fire in the Mashahada area, about 30 km north of Baghdad. Two soldiers were killed and another was wounded.
• On January 6, 2021, a rocket was fired at a refinery near the city of Baiji (Note: on November 29, 2020, ISIS fired two rockets at that refinery, causing a fire in one of the oil pipelines).
• On January 5, 2021, an Iraqi police compound was targeted by machine gun fire northeast of Samarra. One policeman was killed and four others were wounded. ISIS operatives ambushed a rescue force arriving at the scene and fired machine guns at a vehicle. The passengers were killed or wounded.

Al-Anbar Province

• On January 10, 2021, ISIS ambushed and fired at a vehicle carrying Iraqi soldiers near Al-Rutba, in western Al-Anbar Province. An officer and two soldiers were killed and others were wounded. When a rescue force arrived at the scene, it was targeted by heavy and medium weapons. One APC was put out of commission and additional soldiers were wounded.
• On January 9, 2021, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle about 150 km northwest of Baghdad. The passengers were killed or wounded.
• On January 5, 2021, a Popular Mobilization compound was targeted by machine gun fire east of Al-Rutba. One fighter was killed and two others were wounded.

Babel Province

• On January 5, 2021, an Iraqi soldier was targeted by machine gun fire about 15 km south of Baghdad. He was killed.

Counterterrorism activities by the Iraqi security forces

Salah al-Din Province

• On January 9, 2021, teams of the Salah al-Din Intelligence Directorate apprehended three wanted ISIS operatives who operated in the Samarra region. The three admitted in their preliminary interrogation that they had taken part in carrying out attacks against the security forces and Iraqi civilians (Al-Sumaria, January 9, 2021).

Al-Anbar Province

• On January 12, 2021, members of the Iraqi Counterterrorism Apparatus apprehended two “terrorist operatives” (implicitly, ISIS operatives) in the Fallujah region (Facebook page of Iraqi Armed Forces Spokesman Yahya Rasoul, January 9, 2021).
• On January 9, 2021, an Iraqi army force carrying out searches captured two wanted “terrorist operatives” (implicitly, ISIS operatives) about 10 km east of Al-Qaim, near the Iraqi-Syrian border (Facebook page of Iraqi Armed Forces Spokesman Yahya Rasoul, January 9, 2021).
• On January 8, 2021, a security force carrying out searches in the Al-Rutba Desert, in the western Al-Anbar Province, captured an ISIS squad numbering four operatives (Al-Sumaria, January 8, 2021).

Kirkuk Province

• On January 12, 2021, Coalition aircraft carried out airstrikes about 30 km south of Kirkuk. The remains of seven ISIS operatives were later found at the site. A tunnel and two hiding places were also located (Facebook page of Iraqi Armed Forces Spokesman Yahya Rasoul, January 12, 2021).
• On January 12, 2021, members of the Iraqi Counterterrorism Apparatus captured two “terrorist operatives” (implicitly, ISIS operatives) in the Kirkuk Province (Facebook page of Iraqi Armed Forces Spokesman Yahya Rasoul, January 12, 2021).

The city of Baghdad

• On January 12, 2021, members of the Iraqi Counterterrorism Apparatus captured a “terrorist operative” (implicitly, an ISIS operative) whom they described as a “quality target” in the city of Baghdad (Facebook page of Iraqi Armed Forces Spokesman Yahya Rasoul, January 12, 2021).