MESOP TODAY’S Iraq Situation Report: November 22-23, 2014 (By ISW)

by: Ahmed Ali and Brian Fisher – Key Takeaway:  The fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) continues to yield mixed results. In Diyala province, Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga, Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) that include Iraqi Shi’a militias, achieved significant territorial gains against ISIS. The combined forces were able to regain control of the majority of areas in the districts of Jalula and Sadia in northeastern Diyala. These gains are significant and also represent a continuation of a trend in Diyala where anti-ISIS forces have been able to target the group and limit its successes.

Typically, full regaining of ISIS-held areas does not materialize immediately given ISIS entrenchment, pockets of resistance, and its deployment of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) to impede the progress of forces. Nonetheless, ISIS does not have freedom of movement and complete control of Jalula and Sadia will likely take place in the upcoming days as ISIS appears to have been forced to move to its stronghold areas adjacent to Jalula and Sadia. These areas will be challenges given their difficult terrain. In Anbar, ISIS persists to be a major threat to the capital city of Ramadi and to the ISF and anti-ISIS Iraqi Sunni tribes. ISIS continues to seek control of Ramadi and it is racing the ISF and likely international coalition efforts to reinforce and consolidate in the province. In Baghdad, Prime Minister, Haidar al-Abadi, removed senior Deputy Interior Minister and ally of former Prime Minister and current Vice President Nouri al-Maliki, Adnan al-Asadi, from his position. Asadi had operated as de-facto Minister of Interior in the last four years. His dismissal follows Abadi’s November 12 decision to reshuffle senior security commanders. It represents Abadi’s strategy to purge the security structure from “Maliki’s men.” Consequently, this is not a direct challenge to the Minister of Interior, Mohammed al-Ghaban, and his Iranian-backed political group, the Badr organization. Therefore, it will be important to watch if Abadi will seek to further reform the Ministry of Interior at the expense of Badr. The death sentence of the Anbari Former Iraqi Sunni MP, Ahmed al-Alwani, is ill-timed. Alwani was arrested in December of 2013. He was known for being inflammatory due to his sectarian rhetoric but his arrest triggered the events that led to ISIS controlling Fallujah. The Albu Alwan tribe is now fighting ISIS in Ramadi and this decision could weaken the crucial anti-ISIS tribal