MESOP OPINION: Who Will Win the Battle between ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra? The Syrian Regime / By Ahmad Beetar (FIKRA FORUM)

March 20, 2014 –  In 2012, Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) was officially designated by the U.S. government as a terrorist organization. Early on in the conflict, some Syrian opposition media outlets accused the group of being “created by the regime,” but others and even the same outlets have more recently praised the group’s battles and achievements, calling it “an integral part of the revolutionary forces.” This is despite the fact that Jabhat al-Nusra does not call for revolutionary principles such as freedom and democracy, insisting rather on implementing an “Islamic state” in Syria.

It also has not disavowed al-Qaeda and is still considered one of the organization’s branches in the Middle East. Yet the “revolutionary” media is now celebrating them because they have committed to fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which is considered more extreme and dangerous.

Browsing through Syrian opposition commentary online, there is much talk of excesses and massacres committed by ISIS, with pictures and video clips of killings and field executions to support these claims. The most common charge, even among opposition leadership, against ISIS is that it was “created by the regime,” citing as evidence the fact that the regime more frequently bombs strongholds of JN, the Mujahideen Army, and other Islamist groups battling ISIS. But amid conspiratorial claims of the regime’s involvement in ISIS, the opposition is missing the more basic truth: the regime is strategically winning the war as the opposition struggles to unify both in its goals and its messaging.

According to some, the regime considers JN to be a greater threat simply because in the areas under its control, the organization operates similarly to Lebanon’s Hezbollah. In other words, unlike ISIS, the group builds aid institutions, offers services to citizens, and does not punish those who are negligent in their religious duties. They have thus established a popular foundation of acceptance among citizens in some parts of Syria, thereby making it harder for the Syrian army to eliminate them from those areas. As a result, the regime might strategically prefer ISIS to prevail at the moment, since its conduct is more repugnant and provocative to the Syrian people, supposedly making it easier to eliminate them in the future.

Moreover, as field executions and corporal punishment have become trademarks of ISIS (even for minor charges like wearing the niqab incorrectly), the group’s behavior has provoked a fierce hatred for them among people. Residents are thus willing to deal with the regime (though they may harbor a significant degree of hatred for it as well) just to rescue themselves from ISIS. This will greatly facilitate the army’s military operations in the long term.

The third and final factor is that most JN members and leaders are Syrian (religious extremists, but Syrian), meaning that a member can simply shave his beard and change his clothes to become indistinguishable from any other normal citizen. This makes JN a potential sleeper cell that could take up arms against the Syrian regime at any moment or become a significant problem. Meanwhile, most ISIS fighters are Arabs or foreigners, so their dialects and features are enough to distinguish them from Syrian citizens.

The regime may strategically allow ISIS’ initiative to eliminate JN – and naturally the other “revolutionary” factions – only in order to dispose of them at a later stage. But whether it is ISIS or JN that prevails, Islamic extremism will remain a factor in the Syrian landscape. Meanwhile, the “revolutionary” media has made a practice of mixed messaging, attempting to tailor its language according to its audience. It makes broad claims that JN, Israel, and the United States are working to support the regime, while at the same time, “revolutionary” factions are receiving treatment in Israeli hospitals, seeking U.S. weapons and training, and simultaneously coordinating militarily with Jabhat al-Nusra. As such, without reliable and efficient partners in its struggle against the regime, the Syrian opposition is floundering to appeal to many different ideologies as the regime continues to benefit strategically.

Ahmed Beetar is a Syrian journalist and translator. http://fikraforum.org/?p=4722