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The following report is a complimentary offering from the MEMRI Iran Threat Monitor Project (ITMP). For more information, write to memri@memri.org with “ITMP Subscription” in the subject line.
Introduction
As the negotiations in Vienna on a U.S. return to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal reach an impasse, Iranian regime spokesmen are reiterating that the roots of the disagreement lie in the fundamental U.S.-Iran disputes. The main point of contention is Iran’s demand that the U.S. lift all its sanctions on it – not just the nuclear sanctions but also all those pertaining to Iran-sponsored terrorism and Iranian human rights violations.
For example, the Iranians demanded that the U.S. designation of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization be revoked, since the sanctions on the IRGC, which dominates all sectors of Iran’s economy and trade, is significantly hampering foreign elements’ trade with Iran.
In a March 10 speech to members of the Assembly of Experts, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that Iran must not compromise on its positions in the negotiations. He confirmed, for the first time, that Iran’s expansion in the Middle East, which he called “a form of military power,” is Iran’s “strategic depth,” and defined Iran’s nuclear program – “the scientific aspect” – and Iran’s expansion in the region as the “arms” of Iran’s “power” that must not be relinquished in the talks with the U.S. on the lifting of sanctions. Thus, Khamenei in effect stated that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) must not be hobbled in the region, contradicting the U.S. demand in the negotiations that Iran commit publicly to refrain from escalating events in the Middle East.
Iranian regime spokesmen are reiterating Tehran’s position that the key to arriving at an agreement with the U.S. is for Washington to simply agree to all Iran’s demands in the negotiations. This report will review Iran’s position and the threats against the West that it is making in an attempt to force it on the U.S. and its allies in the region.
The Iranian Regime’s Position: Expanding The JCPOA From An Arms Control Agreement To An Economic Agreement
The regime spokesmen are blaming the U.S. and stating that its “unreasonable” position is thwarting the talks. Iran is demanding that Washington accept – and anticipating that it will accept – the Iranian position in full, including in all elements pertaining to the lifting of all the sanctions, not just those concerning the nuclear issue and those levelled by President Trump, but also those concerning sponsorship of terrorism and human rights violations levelled by Congress. It is also demanding the lifting of the sanctions on the IRGC and the rescinding of its designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. Furthermore, Iran is demanding American guarantees that it will not withdraw from the JCPOA a second time, either through obligating all future presidents or, to circumvent the Americans’ claim that there is no way to dictate the policy of future presidents, through obligating the leaders of the House and Senate.
Iran’s insistence that the sanctions be lifted is in fact aimed at upgrading the 2015 JCPOA, which removed only the nuclear sanctions on Iran because Iran refused to discuss its human rights and terrorism issues. Thus, it seeks to include the lifting of all sanctions in other areas. It should be emphasized that a few months after the JCPOA was concluded, in July 2015, the Iranian leadership realized that the elimination of only the nuclear sanctions was not going to bring investors back to Iran, and therefore Supreme Leader Khamenei demanded that all sanctions be lifted. Since then, Tehran has continued to insist on this demand and to brandish it at President Biden, who had announced prior to the opening of the negotiations that he intended to bring the U.S. back into the JCPOA. (See MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis No. 1196, Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei’s Letter Of Guidelines To President Rohani On JCPOA Sets Nine Conditions Nullifying Original Agreement Announced July 14, 2015, October 22, 2015.)
By raising Khamenei’s October 2015 demand to lift all the sanctions, Iran is seeking to expand the agreement from one concerned solely with arms control into an economic agreement, due to Iran’s difficult economic circumstances. Iran wants now to secure benefits that will allow it to trade with other countries, and thus is leveraging the U.S.’s 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA in order to obtain an agreement and conditions that are better for it. This is in addition to its firm demand that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) close its investigation of suspicions that Iran is conducting undeclared military nuclear activity.
The regime mouthpiece Kayhan, which is critical of the JCPOA, wrote on March 9, 2022 that Iran must make sure that it benefits economically from a U.S. return to the agreement. It stated:
“The central and most important point is the issue of guarantees. When there are no guarantees, and when the American administration can pull out of the agreement whenever it wants, it means that we are facing an agreement that is half-baked and rickety.
“Such an agreement will lead to two parallel economic losses for the country. It means, first and foremost, [that we must] strengthen [our] condition [that the agreement in Vienna will strengthen] the country’s economy. The next negative point is that when an agreement has no genuine and practical guarantees, what foreign country or company will be willing to enter into serious economic projects [long-term investments] with Iran? There are several pieces of evidence indicating that our rival [the U.S.] is insisting on ignoring the issue of verifying [that the sanctions have indeed been lifted], which is one of [Iran’s] important red lines to ensure that Iran will benefit economically from the revival of the agreement!
“The importance of the issue of clarification of the facts lies in the fact that we know for certain that the Americans are looking to revive the agreement without any effective and ongoing economic benefit for Iran.”
Khamenei: “Our Involvement In Regional Issues Is Our Strategic Depth; It Is A Means Of Strengthening The Regime, And A Form Of Military Power”
In a March 10, 2022 public address, Supreme Leader Khamenei revealed Iran’s involvement in other countries that is aimed at strengthening the Iranian regime, and said that this involvement constitutes Iran’s “strategic depth.” He stated:
“Our involvement in regional issues is our strategic depth. It is a means of strengthening the regime, and a form of military power. Why should we lose it, when we can and should have it?
“Some people say that we should put aside the nuclear issue, because it has evoked such sensitivities. The nuclear issue is a scientific issue. It is about scientific progress and our future technology. Soon – it will not take long, just a few years – we will need the product of this nuclear energy, and in full scale.
“”People are talking about making concessions to America or others in order to become immune to the sanctions. This means severing this arm of our policy and this bargaining chip, so that, God forbid, they won’t slap us with sanctions if we display toughness. I believe that these [compromises] are mistakes.”
“If, over the years, the people who want to chop off some of those arms of power had been given permission to do so, our country would be facing great danger today…”
IRGC-Affiliated Mashregh News Website: “The West’s Last Chance Is The [IAEA] Board Of Governors Meeting – If At This Meeting The False Dossiers And Accusations [Against Iran] Are Not Closed, [Iran’s] Enrichment [Of Uranium] To 90% Will Be Closer Than Ever”
Against the backdrop of the crisis in the Vienna negotiations, the ideological IRGC-affiliated Mashregh News website published an analysis titled “An Agreement Awaits The Political Will Of The Western Sides: The Options [That Iran Is Facing] In The Vienna Talks Dossiers.” The analysis included threats:
- The possibility that the Iranian negotiating team will not return to the talks, and that the West will settle, in the best case, for a temporary agreement
- If the U.S. rejects Iran’s demands by the June 6-10, 2022 IAEA Board of Governors meeting, Iran will begin manufacturing 20%-enriched uranium metal and will increase enrichment to 90%.
The analysis also set out Iran’s demand for economic benefit as a condition for it to agree to a U.S. return to the JCPOA. The following are the main points of the Mashregh analysis:
“Now or never – this was the phrase uttered by a senior Iranian diplomat to the Reuters news agency. This approach by a political element to the deadline of the talks includes signs that can be understood: If the West does not manage to bring itself to a reasonable realization, the negotiations portfolio may be locked forever.
“But why is Tehran setting conditions for continuing the talks? The answer to this important question is connected to the outcome of the last round of talks, at the Coburg Hotel [in Vienna].”
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