MESOP : IRAQ SITUATION REPORT & MAP (BY ISW)

by: Ahmed Ali and Nichole Dicharry 
The clearing of Jurf al-Sakhar in northern Babil by the ISF and Shi’a militias is a significant event in the course of the anti-ISIS campaign. The area had been an ISIS stronghold in late 2013 and has been contested since early this year. The difficult terrain in this area southwest of Baghdad has presented ISIS with the opportunity to withstand multiple clearing attempts. Clearing Jurf al-Sakhar may allow the ISF to increase pressure on ISIS to the north near Amiriyat al-Fallujah, where ISIS still maintains rural control. ISIS has recently been attacking ISF forces in Amiriyat al-Fallujah directly. The ISF operation in Jurf al-Sakhar also signals the increased leadership role the Iraqi Shi’a militias are undertaking in ISF offensive operations. The clearing precedes the occasion of the Ashura pilgrimage which will include thousands of Shi’a pilgrims walking to Karbala through northern Babil. Therefore, it may result in better security for the route to Karbala from southern Iraq, where ISIS detonated four VBIEDS earlier this week. Meanwhile, ISIS established control of positions along the Euphrates west of Hit near al-Asad airbase and east of Fallujah. ISIS continues to attack into Ramadi. ISIS movement east of Fallujah signifies an enduring threat to Baghdad along the western approach. Along the Tigris, ISIS may be shifting forces east of Samarra to reestablish control of Udhaim, which falls along the Baghdad-Kirkuk highway. This may be a response to recent clashes with the ISF and the Peshmerga against ISIS along the Hamrin ridge, or possibly a response to ISF activity north of Tikrit.