ASSAD REGIME MAKES PROGRESS WITH HELP OF THE KURDS ? (JOSHUA LANDIS)
Syria Consolidates into Three Cantons as the Opposition Pushes Back, Taking Mengh Airbase & other Strategic Points
Joshua Landis on Tuesday, August 6th, 2013 – The Syrian Arab Army is on the retreat in the North, Aleppo, Idlib and now some high points East of Latakia as well. The Free Syrian Army is making progress in Damascus countryside as well. These important advances seem to have reversed the momentum that the Syrian regime captured following its successful campaign at Qusair. Many have begun to speculate that roles have been reversed and that the Syrian Arab Army is now in retreat in contrast to few months ago.
But the Government is making progress in Homs and Hassakah with the help of the Kurds and is stalemated on several other fronts, which points, not to a rout or collapse, but to the consolidation of cantons that have been emerging out of teh fragmentation of Syria for over a year: the government controlled West and South, the Opposition controlled North and East around Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor, and a Kurdish controlled Far East.
Aron Lund writes:
I’m not sure the fall of Mengh represents momentum nationally either way – the conflict is so localized. Rebels have been making slow progress up north, despite the Quseir and Ghouta setbacks. It see-saws a bit back and forth, but I think these past months are more indicative of a (quite strong) consolidation in Assad’s core areas (liberally defined to include Homs). Assad is not making national gains only consolidating his core areas.
Fall of Mengh Airbase outside of Aleppo
The important airport and military base, Mengh, outside of Aleppo has finally fallen. For over a year it resisted capture, despite daily bombardments and frequent attacks by the opposition. This pro-government Facebook site gives the one side of the story.
Foreign Policy summarizes:
Syrian opposition forces reportedly overtook the government’s Mingh air base in Aleppo province early Tuesday, after repeated attacks over nearly a year working to seize control. The final push is believed to have come from nine rebel groups, including Islamist factions and Chechens, and was led by two foreign men, one believed to be Saudi Arabian, who carried out a suicide attack in an armored vehicle. Opposition fighters have made other recent gains in the Latakia province, overtaking several Alawite villages, pushing deeper into the government stronghold.
However, the Syrian regime celebrated its own victor with the defense minister touring the recently seized Khalidiyeh district of Homs.
Pro-government sources are saying that troops inside the airport were aided by the PPK, a Kurdish group, to escape to Afri, a Kurdish region north of Aleppo, here’s a map of two areas. Sana’s article reports that all the airport security forces are safe, that the airport was empty and the terrorists (opposition forces) have suffered a lot of losses.
It seems likely that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria along with the Jaish Muhajerin forces and lots of al-Qaida style foreign fighters spearheaded the airport attack. They could now move on to Nubul and Zahra, the two Shi`a holdouts in the north. They are next door. One does not even want to think about how that could end.
This from Anne Barnard of the NYTim