MESOP THIS MORNING : Rebel Defenses Collapsing in Northern Aleppo

by Scott Lucas – eaworldview – 16 Feb 2016 – After months of attacks from three sides, rebel defenses are collapsing in northern Aleppo Province in northern Syria.

Rebels have held the area since 2012 but have faced a foreign-led regime offensive, enabled by intense Russian bombing, since October 2015. They have been at war with the Islamic State, including a frontline near the town of Mare’, since early 2014. This month, the Kurdish YPG militia — now also supported by Russian airstrikes — have advanced.

On Monday, rebels suffered a series of losses between Aleppo city and the Turkish border. After days of battles, they gave up the town of Tal Rifaat, held since 2012, to the Kurdish-led assault. The YPG and allies also captured Kafrnaya, following clashes between the Syrian Army and rebels, and Kafrnashih.

The Syrian Army, which has been fighting alongside Iranian forces, Hezbollah units, and Iraqi and Afghan militias, occupied Misqan and Ahras.

Rebels had gained territory in northwest Syria through much of 2015, while holding the line against the Islamic State. However, Russian aerial intervention checked the advance and began threatening rebel lines. Defense was still maintained until this month; however, the Kurdish entry into the battles this month appears to have broken the rebel resistance.

Kurdish leaders are hoping to join the Afrin canton, northwest of Aleppo city, with the Kobane and Cezire cantons in northeast Syria to establish a territorially-unified Syrian Kurdistan (Rojava).

The Turkish Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, repeated on Monday that Ankara will not accept a Kurdish takeover of the border town of Azaz. But rebels face the loss of Mare’, to the east of Tel Rifaat, to either the Kurds or the regime offensive — this in turn would raise the possibility, for the first time, of a Kurdish fight with the Islamic State in northwest Syria.

Earlier this month, the regime offensive split rebel territory to the the north of Aleppo city, cutting supplies between the Turkish border and the opposition in Aleppo, divided since July 2012. www.mesop.de