Mining the Web to Predict Future Events / MICROSOFT
Kira Radinsky – Technion–Israel Institute of Technology – Haifa, Israel – firstname.lastname@example.org
Eric Horvitz – Microsoft Research – Redmond, WA, USA – email@example.com
We describe and evaluate methods for learning to forecast forthcoming events of interest from a corpus containing 22 years of news stories. We consider the examples of identifying significant increases in the likelihood of disease outbreaks, deaths, and riots in advance of the occurrence of these events in the world. We provide details of methods and studies, including the automated extraction and generalization of sequences of events from news corpora and multiple web resources. We evaluate the predictive power of the approach on real-world events withheld from the system.