TODAY’S MESOP EDITORIAL : ERDOGAN THE WINNER
ANALYSIS: The naked truth of Turkish politics
31-3-2013 – Here is the naked truth: Half of those corruption claims in any other democratic country would be enough for the collapse of the government; in Turkey it cost only some 5 points of loss in support of Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan’s votes in the local elections on March 30.
It is also true that Turkey has never experienced an election with so much fraud claims in decades. Power outages in critical districts of critical cities like Istanbul and Ankara on elections night, replacing of poll box observers of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) during the vote count allegedly by street bullies to intimidate observers from other parties, especially in Ankara, trying to prevent poll observers from being in the room during voting, in especially the east and southeast of the country, are some of those claims.
Those claims could have changed the result in some cities, but let’s face the truth: The difference between the AK Parti and others is not in the single digits. Istanbul and Ankara could have changed the picture, but it did not. The majority of Turkish voters have closed their eyes and ears to corruption claims, because Erdoğan told them to do so; he has still such an influence on them.
There is another dimension of the story. To be frank, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) did his best in the campaign. The candidates he picked for Istanbul and Ankara were not ideologically shaped figures. Mustafa Sarıgül in Istanbul is a populist politician who could find a place in any party. Mansur Yavaş in Ankara came from a nationalist background, but is known as a moderate politician. But the CHP’s competition with the AK Parti is an unfair one, because the CHP does not exist in practical terms in almost a third of the country; especially when including the Kurdish populated east and south east. In big cities with a large Kurdish population like Diyarbakır, the CHP received 0.9 percent of the votes. In Şanlıurfa it was also 0.9 percent. In Van, it was 0.8. But the Ak Parti managed to win over the Kurdish problem focused Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) in Şanlıurfa, for example, and lost in the other two after an exhausting race. The non-existent situation in the Kurdish regions could be understandable for the Turkish-nationalist oriented Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) for example, but not for the CHP with its social democratic and popular program.
Erdoğan’s political recipe based simply on antagonism won again. This time, the subject of antagonism was the supporters of Fethullah Gülen, his former ally moderate Islamist scholar living in the U.S. who is accused of staging a coup against Erdoğan by bringing up corruptions claims. Erdoğan has vowed to root out the Gülenists during the election campaign and now there is no reason left to carry out that promise, since he will take the election results as a license to do so.
Now Turkey will have the presidential elections in August. Its campaign will start in June. Some 45 percent is enough to win the 8th poll after 2002 for Erdoğan, but will not be enough for presidency, for which 50 percent plus one vote will be needed. The Kurdish voters could be attracted for that, whereas the BDP is locked on regional autonomy. How will the AK Parti voters respond to that? Erdoğan might come up with another issue to fit his antagonist recipe. But nor is it time for him to enjoy victory. – http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/the-naked-truth-of-turkish-politics.aspx?pageID=238&nID=64325&NewsCatID=409