THEO VAN GOGH MONDIALES: ANDAUERNDE FESTE PARTNERSCHAFT!
Russia’s Turn Toward China Is More Than a Passing Phase
Alexander Gabuev – Director – Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center – 17-5-24
| Dear Colleague,
Today, Vladimir Putin is visiting Xi Jinping in China, in yet another clear demonstration of the current closeness between Russia and China. Never since the fall of the Soviet Union has Russia been so distant from Europe and so entwined with China as today. Beijing has emerged as Moscow’s most important partner, becoming a lifeline for its embattled economy. As I argue in my guest essay for The New York Times, Chinese culture will not replace Western culture as Russians’ main reference point any time soon, but a profound shift has occurred and a growing number of educated Russians see China as an economically superior power to which Russia is ever more connected. With no easy way back to normal ties with the West, that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. |
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| Together, the Russian and Chinese governments have demonstrated a remarkable ability to adapt to U.S. sanctions over the past two years, Alexandra Prokopenko notes in her article for the Financial Times. So far, Moscow and Beijing have used the Chinese cross-border interbank payment system (Cips) to process transactions. The next step will be to create sophisticated new infrastructure for clearing the most sensitive payments.
After all, by using the Russian economy as a giant sandbox, the Chinese authorities can fine-tune a financial infrastructure that can be used by other nations seeking an antidote to Washington’s weaponization of the dollar, writes Prokopenko. |
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| The Russia-Ukraine war itself is also something of a sandbox for China. Many senior policymakers in Washington and other Western capitals had hoped that Russia’s experience in Ukraine would deter Beijing from invading Taiwan, for example.
But Beijing may be drawing very different conclusions in the third year of this grueling war than in the first, as I write in my piece for The Wall Street Journal. Indeed, the lessons China’s leaders are learning may be quite the opposite of what the White House wants them to learn. |
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Sincerely, Alexander Gabuev |