Renowned Russian Academic Karaganov: There Has Been ‘A Fundamental Change In Russia’s Geopolitical Position’ Due To China’s Transformation ‘From An Enemy Into A Friendly State – Almost An Ally’ 

MESOP WATCH ANALYSIS BY MEMRI  Special Dispatch No. 9706

An article by renowned Russian academic Sergey Karaganov, one of Russia’s most authoritative political scientists, titled “A Chance Not To Be Missed: We Must Admit The Obvious – A New Cold War Is Unfolding, And Russia Should Think About How To Get Out Of It As A Winner,”

was published by the Russian media outlet Rossiiskaya Gazeta on June 25, 2021. Karaganov is Academic Supervisor of the Faculty of World Economics and International Affairs of the Higher School of Economics, Honorary Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and former foreign policy advisor to Russia’s Presidential Administration (2001-2013).

In the article, Karaganov stated that the West is falling apart politically and morally, and is also weakening economically. On the other hand, he wrote, Russia has several advantages, mainly “the experience of defeat in the previous Cold War” and “the absence of illusions and ideological blinders.” According to Karaganov, there has been a fundamental change in Russia’s geopolitical position: China’s transformation from an enemy into a friendly state, almost an ally. “China is rebuilding its armed forces and transforming its military strategy from land to sea orientation. Beijing is not going to threaten us yet. A strong China is drawing off more and more U.S. military-political resources. Russia is doing the same for China. Russia is a strategic pillar in the military-political sphere and a safe source of the most critical natural resources for China,” he wrote.

Adding that a new Cold War is unfolding, he concluded that this time Russia can emerge victorious, and that “the struggle will require us to commit a lot of national effort and work out a forward-looking ideology.”

Below is Karaganov’s article:

The West Is ‘Falling Apart Politically And Morally’

“Over the last six months, most commentators have finally stopped saying that the relationship between Russia and the United States is ‘at its worst since the end of the Cold War’ and begun recognizing the obvious: a new Cold War is unfolding. The situation is increasingly reminiscent of the 1950s, naturally, with necessary adjustments for the new international situation. I believe that Russia can get out of the current aggravation as a winner. It only needs to make the right choice in its domestic policy and foreign policy course and, most importantly, avoid getting involved in a big war, which may turn into a global thermonuclear and cyberspace Armageddon.

“The previous round of the Cold War ended with the defeat of Communism and the USSR. What are the chances in the current one unleashed against China and Russia? Let us count the resources. As a result of the Soviet Union’s collapse, we have lost a significant part of the territory and population. Unsuccessful reforms have caused significant damage to the meritocratic elite, human capital, science, and high technology. The western security buffer has shrunk. The loss of global influence and the empire was a painful blow to many.

“After a rapid growth in the 2000s, the economy has been stagnating, reducing somewhat the base of international influence. But most importantly, in the long run this is fraught with erosion of internal stability and loss of active public support for the authorities. The country’s fundamental weakness is that it has no future-oriented ideology that would replace the bygone ones: the dead communist one, and the ideas of ‘returning’ to Europe in the 1990s, ‘rising from knees’ in the 2000s, and regaining the status of a first-class great power in the 2010s. Great nations collapse without such ideologies or after their loss. The ruling circles’ decision to avoid the long-overdue ‘new Russian idea’ that would unite the majority is quite puzzling. High-quality technocracy is necessary, but it will not secure a victory in the fight for the future. In the initial stages of the previous Cold War, the country had an idea, albeit a communist one, and a growing economy.”