MESOP MIDEAST WATCH:Direct Polls: Bennett Circling Threshold, Sa’ar Wiped, Ra’am Weak, Bibi’s Comeback Scratching 60 Votes

 David Israel –  February 15, 2022 TIMES OF ISRAEL

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett speaks with Justice Minister Gideon Sa’ar, January 17, 2022.

Since the political revolution of the last election, the Bennett-Lapid coalition has settled down with a small but stable majority in the polls. Every mainstream poll over the past six months has indicated that after about 5 seats had migrated from Naftali Bennett’s Yamina and Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope back to the right-wing bloc, the remaining small majority of Israeli voters support the coalition parties. Not anymore.

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MESOP NEWS INTEL BY MEIR AMIT CENTER ISRAEL The killing of ISIS’s leader in an operation by US forces in Syria and possible implications

Overview 15.2.2022
US President Joe Biden announced that ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi was killed in an operation carried out by US Special Forces on the night of February 2-3, 2022, in the village of Atmeh in the Idlib Province in northwestern SyriaCENTCOM Commander General Kenneth F. McKenzie noted that ISIS’s leader blew himself up at the start of the operation because he refused to surrender to the US forces and that he and members of his immediate family were killed in the explosion (US Department of Defense website, February 4, 2022).
  • ISIS’s media has not yet issued an official announcement of his death.Amir Mohammed Abdul Rahman al-Mawla al-Salbi, known as Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, 46, was born to a Sunni Turkmen family in Tal Afar, near Mosul in Iraq. Al-Qurashi had a religious and military education. He studied Islamic law at the University of Mosul and served in the Iraqi army under Saddam Hussein. In 2003, with the US invasion of Iraq, he joined radical jihadi organizations operating in the country. In 2004, he was detained by the Americans and incarcerated in Camp Bucca in southern Iraq, where he apparently met Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. On his release from prison, he became a senior ISIS official, holding several positions in the organization. On October 26, 2019, after the killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, he succeeded him as ISIS’s leader. It should be noted that he was one of the very few senior ISIS officials who were not Arabs.
  • As ISIS’s leader, Abu Ibrahim al-Qurashi was able to partially rehabilitate the organization, which had lost control of most of the territories that it had controlled in Syria and Iraq and was at an unprecedented low. Personally, he took care to remain behind the scenes, unlike his predecessor, who considered himself an ideologist. He did not disseminate ideological religious audiotapes. Al-Qurashi was considered a skilled military man who commanded ISIS’s operations on a regular basis from his place of residence. He was known for his cruelty when he took part in the killing of members of the Yazidi minority. He was apparently also responsible for the break-in at Al-Sina’ah-Ghuwayran Prison in Al-Hasakah on January 20, 2022.
  • The death of ISIS’s leader in the US operation represents a blow to ISIS’s morale.Past experience, however, indicates that killing the leader of the organization is a tactical event that does not result in the elimination of the organization or its ideology. The death of Abu Ibrahim al-Qurashi may have a temporary effect on ISIS’s activity in Syria and Iraq, which were its focal points of control and activity. However, it is unlikely to affect the more remote provinces where local groups operate. Although these groups have pledged allegiance to ISIS’s leader, ISIS’s control over them is limited. It is possible that the death of ISIS’s leader will increase its operatives’ motivation to carry out attacks to avenge his death, including in the West and especially in the United States.
  • With regard to Abu Ibrahim al-Qurashi’s possible successor, there are a number of unofficial reports that the new leader is codenamed Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi(Twitter, February 6, 2022; ru-maf.net, February 6, 2022). It should be noted that after Al-Baghdadi’s death on October 26, 2019, the name of his successor was revealed only in January 2020.

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MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: BIDEN ADMINISTRATION ANNOUNCES ALLOCATION OF FROZEN AFGHAN ASSETS 

Several interested parties have been contending for control over more than $9 billion USD in Afghanistan Central Bank (Da Afghanistan Bank) assets held at the time of the Taliban takeover of the country in August. Of that amount, about $7 billion is in a U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York account.

Following the Taliban’s assumption of control of the Afghan government, the United States government froze the assets in order to prevent their transfer to—or use by—the Taliban. The World Bank and International Monetary Fund also froze about $1.2 billion in aid money that had been earmarked for the former government in Kabul. On Friday, President Joseph Biden issued an Executive Order enabling the administration to distribute the frozen funds from Afghanistan’s central bank to support Afghan civilians and representatives of victims of the attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States. A statement by the administration indicated that the intention is to “provide a path for the funds to reach the people of Afghanistan, while keeping them out of the hands of the Taliban and malicious actors.”

The U.S. government argued that the New York-based funds cannot be released to Afghan control because the Taliban controls the government and remains designated as a terrorist group under Executive Order 13224 (since September 2001), and also under UN sanctions under a regime established by Security Council Resolution 1988 (2011). No government, including the United States, has yet recognized the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, but even taking that step would not necessarily trigger a release of the assets to a Taliban-led government if the Taliban remains designated as a terrorist organization. The United Nations 1988 regime and list of sanctions on Taliban leaders, including some who are now in key positions in the interim government announced in September, and the continued designation of groups operating in Afghanistan like Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), which is listed under the “1267” counterterrorism sanctions regime, have been cited by humanitarian groups as impeding the delivery of critical assistance. U.S. designations do not carry a humanitarian exception—an exception that is routinely embedded within many other U.S. sanctions laws and executive orders. However, UN Security Council members just adopted an important humanitarian carve out for the “1988” sanctions regime in December and are working with key stakeholders to develop mechanisms to use those exceptions.

The dispensation of the frozen assets had been disputed by parties with competing interests and claims, all of which appeared to have at least some legal, moral, and policy grounding. The Biden administration’s decision will prove crucial to enabling longer term aid to millions of Afghans in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, although with potentially devastating implications for the dire economic crisis that has left families without sufficient cash to buy basic goods in the short term. The United Nations says that 22% of Afghanistan’s 38 million people are living in near famine conditions and another 36% are facing acute food insecurity. The allocation of approximately $3.5 billion of the frozen assets to support Afghan civilians—a move advocated by humanitarian organizations—will likely facilitate provision of the assets directly to global aid agencies for implementation; the humanitarian carve-out recently adopted by the UN critically allows its entities and partners to deliver assistance in the country. This course of action will not violate any U.S. sanctions laws or policies, as long as none of the funds come under the control of any Taliban member, and will avoid the need for immediate U.S. decisions on recognizing the Taliban government or the Taliban’s terrorist designation.

The Taliban’s harboring of al-Qaeda leadership at the time of the 9/11 attacks—as well as accusations that the Taliban continues to associate with al-Qaeda—still resonates in U.S. official and judicial circles. Following the Taliban takeover in August, a group of families of about 150 U.S. victims of the September 11 attacks sought to claim the $7 billion in Afghan central bank assets held in New York as payment on a 2012 default judgement against the Taliban, al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, and Iran—who evidently did not show up in court. The other half of the frozen funds from Afghanistan’s central bank—approximately $3.5 billion—are now being set aside for pursuit by relatives of victims of the 9/11 attacks with legal claims against the Taliban. On the allocation of funds to support 9/11 victims, former Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai argued, “We commiserate with them [but] Afghan people are as much victims as those families who lost their lives… Withholding money or seizing money from the people of Afghanistan in their name is unjust and unfair and an atrocity against Afghan people.” Critics have widely challenged this move by the Biden administration, noting that the timing and potential devastation it will affect in Afghanistan, particularly when none of the 9/11 attackers hailed from the country, imposes a disproportionate penalty on Afghan civilians while playing largely to domestic U.S. audiences for political gain in the run up to midterm elections.

Taliban leaders argue that the assets belong to the Afghan people and should be released to their control, the movement’s terrorist designation and human rights record notwithstanding, particularly in light of U.S. partnership with other countries with variable human rights records. The Taliban asserts that the Afghan people are being essentially forced to suffer for the perception of the Taliban that was formed at the time of the 9/11 attacks—and which ignores the new regime’s pledges to avoid the abuses committed under earlier Taliban rule during 1996-2001. A recent UN report alleges that the Taliban have targeted and killed at least 65 members of the former government since seizing control, however, challenging their narrative of being an inclusive and representative government.

This decision by the Biden administration—while an effort to uphold sanctions against the Taliban and show support for victims of terrorism domestically—will undoubtedly further debilitate Afghanistan’s fragile economy. While the United States has provided nearly $800 million in humanitarian aid to Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover, and it has relaxed some restrictions on cash remittances to non-sanctioned Afghans, restrictions on Afghanistan’s banking sector continue to imperil the country’s economic viability. Furthermore, John Sifton of Human Rights Watch argued, “If implemented, the decision would create a problematic precedent for commandeering sovereign wealth and do little to address underlying factors driving Afghanistan’s massive humanitarian crisis.” U.S. courts will ultimately decide whether each of the proposed allocations of frozen funds will move forward.

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MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: Palestinian Christians welcome Amnesty International’s apartheid report 

Kairos Palestine calls on the Church, civil society and governments to pressure Israel.

By Jeff Wright February 7, 2022 In a statement released last week, the most extensive Palestinian Christian ecumenical nonviolent movement, Kairos Palestine (KP), expressed gratitude for Amnesty International’s courage in documenting that “Israel’s laws, policies and practices constitute an apartheid state.”

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MESOP WATCH INTEL: Dutch intelligence service warns public about online recruitment by foreign spies / CHINA&RUSSIA

FEB15, 2022 – LAST WEEK, THE DUTCH General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) launched an awareness campaign dubbed ‘Check before connecting’.

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THEO VA GOGH SOCIETY: DER VATER ALLER NEUDEUTSCHEN POLITISCHEN QUERDENKER / EIN NACHRUF

Günter Maschke 1943 | 2022 R.I.P.  /   EPILOG AUF GÜNTER MASCHKE-

GANZ EIN MANN DIESER ZEIT – DEZISIONISTISCH  MAL LINKS / MAL RECHTS – Gewürdigt von Lorenz Jäger (FAZ), auch dieser Würdiger mal bei ANTAIOS in Schnellroda Ziegenmilch schlürfend – mal dann KUBITSCHEK auch wieder verratend + da capo al fine.

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MESOP MIDEAST WATCH : Bis zu 20.000 Fahrzeuge nehmen am israelischen COVID-“Freedom Convoy” teil

Die Crowdfunding-Initiative wurde vom Canadian Freedom Convoy inspiriert und steht unter dem Motto “Take back the wheel”. Der Konvoi gipfelte in großen Protesten vor der israelischen Knesset und dem Obersten Gerichtshof in Jerusalem.

Teilnehmer des israelischen COVID-Freiheitskonvois starten in Eilat. 1-2-2022 JEWISH NEWS SYNDICATE

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MESOPOTAMIA NEWS: Iran in ‘hurry’ to reach nuclear agreement, says foreign minister

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian called on the West to stop “playing with time” in Vienna

Al-Monitor StaffFeb 14, 2022 — AL MONITOR –

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MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: The Price of Retrenchment – What the Ukraine Crisis Reveals About the Post-American Middle East

By Martin Indyk FOREIGN AFFAIRS – Feby 14, 2022 As Russian troop maneuvers on Ukraine’s borders suggest an imminent invasion, U.S. President Joe Biden is doing his best to rally the international community in opposition.

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MESOP NEWS ANALYSIS: THE CLASH OF SYSTEMS NEAR

Enemies of My Enemy How Fear of China Is Forging a New World Order

By Michael Beckley March/April 2022 FOREIGN AFFAIRS

The international order is falling apart, and everyone seems to know how to fix it.

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