• This week, the relatively low level of ISIS activity around the world continued.
• According to a report released by the UN on the terrorist threat, ISIS and al-Qaeda are still the biggest risk factor worldwide. One of the main concerns raised by the report is the processes of radicalization and ISIS’s recruitment of operatives via the Internet, exploiting weak local populations.
• Hypotheses about the successor of ISIS’s leader: It is surmised that ISIS’s new leader will be chosen from among its four Iraqi senior officials, members of the founding generation. ISIS has not yet disclosed any details on the matter.
• ISIS’s activity in Syria continued on a relatively low scale. Most of the attacks were directed against the Kurdish SDF forces in the Deir ez-Zor-Al-Mayadeen region. Since October 2021, HTS reportedly detained about 300 jihadi operatives in the rebel enclave in Idlib.
• In Iraq as well, ISIS’s activity was on a relatively small scale, mainly against Iraqi military forces. Several soldiers were killed and wounded in a relatively complex operation in the Rutba region in western Iraq. The Iraqi security forces continued their counterterrorism activity. Seven ISIS operatives were killed in an Iraqi airstrike in the al-Khadr region, southeast of Mosul.
• The Sinai Peninsula: After a considerable delay, ISIS announced that on January 24, 2022, it had executed a “spy” who had been abducted about two months earlier near Bir al-Abd. The Egyptian security forces and the local forces supporting them continued their counterterrorism activity. Several casualties were reported among the fighters of the Sinai Tribal Union and the Egyptian army.
• Afghanistan: ISIS continues its attacks against the Taliban forces, albeit on a relatively small scale. A hand grenade was thrown at the entrance to a mosque in a town near the Afghanistan-Turkmenistan border. ISIS may have been behind the attack.
• Africa: ISIS continued its attacks against the Nigerian army in the northeast of the country. In northern Cameroon, ISIS operatives attacked an army camp. At least 10 soldiers were killed in the exchange of fire.
• Attack thwarted in Europe: Spanish police recently arrested five people on suspicion of carrying out activity for ISIS in various places in Spain.
• The battle for hearts and minds: The lead article in this week’s issue of ISIS’s Al-Naba’ weekly was devoted to the global media, and especially the Arab media which, according to the article, distorts the truth, distances Muslims from their faith and serves the “Jewish and Christian conspiracies.” Over the past two weeks, the ISIS-affiliated Al-Saqri Institute for Military Studies has posted instructions for making IEDs on Telegram, along with posts encouraging ISIS operatives to take action against its enemies (Militant Wire, February 12, 2022).

UN report on global terrorist threats

• Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Office Vladimir Voronkov published the Threats to International Peace and Security Caused by Terrorist Acts report for the year 2021. The report stated the following, inter alia (UN website, February 9, 2022; UN Security Council website, February 8, 2022):
  • ISIS and al-Qaeda still pose a major threat to world security and represent the biggest terrorism risk factor.
  • Terrorism in Syria and Iraq: The number of ISIS operatives in Syria and Iraq is estimated at between 6,000 and 10,000. In the second half of 2021, ISIS increased its activity, and its operatives are concentrating on carrying out guerrilla operations, mainly in outlying areas.
  • Afghanistan: In 2021, ISIS’s Khorasan Province doubled in size from 2,200 to 4,000 operatives, and is capable of carrying out relatively complex attacks. The province is attempting to position itself as the dominant opponent to the Taliban administration, under which terrorist groups enjoy unprecedented freedom of action.
  • Europe: Various European authorities have reported several cases indicating a pattern of homegrown terrorism, with frustrated and vulnerable young locals who have expressed enthusiasm for radical violence, easily absorbing the propaganda messages of ISIS and al-Qaeda.
  • East Asia: Some countries have reported a decrease in terrorist activity, mainly due to successful counterterrorism activity by their security services.
  • Recruitment: One of the main concerns raised by the report is radicalization and ISIS’s recruitment processes via the Internet in conflict-free regions. In these regions, ISIS continues to take advantage of the frustration, political tension and socioeconomic difficulties of the local population.
  • Terrorist financing: ISIS’s leadership has an amount ranging from $25 million to $50 million. It is estimated that ISIS’s leadership is able to allocate large sums of money to its operatives outside Syria and Iraq.

Assessments about the identity of ISIS’s new leader

• Two Iraqi officials and three experts have estimated that ISIS’s new leader would be chosen from among its four Iraqi officials, members of ISIS’s founding generation. The names that came up are Abu Khadija, commander of ISIS’s Iraq Province; the commander of the Al-Anbar region, codenamed Abu Moslem; a commander codenamed Abu Saleh, about whom little is known apart from the fact that he was close to its two previous leaders, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Abu Ibrahim al-Qurashi; and Abu Yasser al-Issawi. According to the United States, the latter was killed in January 2021, but his death is apparently uncertain (Reuters, February 9, 2022).

 The Syrian arena

• ISIS’s Al-Naba’ weekly included an infographic presenting ISIS’s achievements in Syria between January 21 and February 9, 2022. According to the infographic, during this period ISIS carried out 42 terrorist attacks in Syria, killing and wounding 115 people. The activity focused on the regions of Deir ez-Zor (23 attacks), Al-Hasakah (13), and Al-Raqqah (6). Most of the terrorist attacks took the form of shooting (37). There were also two ambushes, two targeted killings, and one instance of detonating an IED (Al-Naba’ weekly, Telegram, February 10, 2022).

The Idlib region

• Exchanges of artillery fire continued between Syrian soldiers and forces supporting the Syrian army, and the rebel organizations in the Idlib enclave. The Syrian army fired artillery at the south of the rebel enclave in Idlib. Six civilians, members of the same family, were reportedly killed (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, February 13, 2022). Two Syrian soldiers were killed by gunfire in the northeastern rebel enclave. The Syrian army responded with artillery fire. Russian fighter planes carried out airstrikes south of Idlib and in the southern part of the rebel enclave (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, February 13, 15, 2022).

HTS activity

• It was reported that since October 2021, operatives of HTS, the dominant rebel organization in the rebel enclave, had detained about 300 jihadi operatives, mostly foreign fighters. The detainees reportedly included about 40 commanders and ideological leaders (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, February 13, 2022).

Al-Hasakah region

• An SDF roadblock was targeted by gunfire in the Ghuwayran neighborhood in Al-Hasakah (in the area of the prison which was attacked by ISIS about two weeks ago). Two Kurdish fighters were killed (Telegram, February 9, 2022).

Al-Raqqah region

• An SDF fighter was targeted by gunfire near his home in Karamah, east of Al-Raqqah. He was wounded (Telegram, February 10, 2022).

Deir ez-Zor-Al-Mayadeen region

• On February 13, 2022, an SDF vehicle was targeted by gunfire in the Basira region, about 15 km north of Al-Mayadeen. The vehicle was put out of commission and the three passengers on board were killed (Telegram, February 13, 2022).
• On February 10, 2022, an SDF vehicle was targeted by gunfire in Al-Susah, about 7 km northeast of Albukamal. The vehicle was damaged and the passengers on board were wounded (Telegram, February 10, 2022).
• On February 9, 2022, an SDF roadblock was attacked in Jadida Bakara, about 20 km southeast of Deir ez-Zor. Six SDF fighters were killed or wounded in the exchange of fire (Telegram, February 10, 2022).
• On February 9, 2022, an SDF base was targeted by gunfire in Jazrat Albu Shams, northwest of Deir ez-Zor. Six Kurdish fighters were killed or wounded in the exchange of fire (Telegram, February 10, 2022).
• On February 9, 2022, ISIS operatives who infiltrated an SDF base in Shahil, about 10 km north of Al-Mayadeen, abducted and killed five fighters. They set the base on fire and seized five rifles. According to ISIS, the attack was carried out to avenge the killing of three women and four children in the Al-Hawl Camp, where family members of ISIS operatives are held (Telegram, February 9, 2022).

• On February 8, 2022, an SDF post was attacked in Dhiban, about 3 km east of Al-Mayadeen. Two fighters were wounded and the post sustained damage (Telegram, February 8, 2022).

 The Iraqi arena

Attacks by province^[1]

Diyala Province

• On February 15, 2022, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle in the Hamrin region, in the northwest of the province. The vehicle was put out of commission and the passengers on board were wounded.
• On February 14, 2022, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle west of Qara Tapa, about 75 km north of Baqubah. The vehicle was destroyed and the passengers on board, including an officer, were wounded.
• On February 9, 2022, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle in the Kanaan region, about 15 km southeast of Baqubah. The vehicle was put out of commission and the passengers on board were killed or wounded. An Iraqi army post in area was targeted by gunfire on the same day. One soldier was killed and another was wounded. ISIS operatives also destroyed a water pump used by the Tribal Mobilization in the area.
• On February 9, 2022, an Iraqi army convoy was targeted by gunfire during an operation in the Al-Azim region, about 60 km north of Baqubah. Six vehicles were put out of commission.

Al-Anbar Province

• On February 8, 2022, an Iraqi army post was attacked east of Al-Rutba, in western Iraq. Several soldiers were wounded. An IED was activated against a vehicle that arrived on the scene. It was destroyed, and the passengers on board were killed.

    
Wreckage of the vehicle (Telegram, February 14, 2022)

Kirkuk Province

• On February 14, 2022, an Iraqi police vehicle was ambushed and fired at in the Daquq region, in south Kirkuk. It was put out of commission. A lieutenant was wounded.

Counterterrorism measures

Erbil Province

• The Iraqi government counterterrorism unit and Kurdish Special Forces detained four ISIS operatives in the province (Al-Sumaria, February 15, 2022).

Nineveh Province

• On February 8, 2022, the Iraqi Air Force killed seven ISIS operatives in the region of al-Khadr, southeast of Mosul. The dead included Abu Sultan al-Nimrawi, ISIS’s operative in charge of security in the al-Jazira and the Desert sector (east and southeast of Mosul). He was responsible for receiving ISIS operatives arriving from Syria and was in charge of ISIS’s guesthouses (the Iraqi Interior Ministry, February 8, 2022).

Sinai Peninsula

• ISIS announced that on January 24, 2022, it had executed an Egyptian army “spy” abducted about two months earlier near Bir al-Abd. According to ISIS, the “spy” was from Asyut. ISIS’s Amaq News Agency released a video documenting the execution (Telegram, February 12, 2022; Al-Naba’ weekly, Telegram, February 10, 2022).

• On February 15, 2022, armed operatives abducted two Al-Arish residents in the Al-Gafgafa region in the central Sinai Peninsula (Shahed Sinaa – al-Rasmia Facebook page, February 15, 2022). Presumably, they were abducted by operatives of ISIS’s Sinai Province.

Counterterrorism measures

• At least eight Sinai Tribal Union fighters were reportedly killed in the fighting against armed terrorist operatives (most likely ISIS operatives) in the Sinai Peninsula (Shahed Sinaa – al-Rasmia Facebook page, February 14, 2022; Sinai Tribal Union Twitter account, February 13, 2022). An Egyptian special unit fighter was killed fighting in North Sinai (@mahmouedgamal44 Twitter account, February 10, 2022).
• The Egyptian security forces in North Sinai seized a truck loaded with substances for manufacturing IEDs probably intended for the use of ISIS’s operatives in the Sinai Peninsula. The substances were hidden underneath piles of cardboard boxes (@Gvroe6mFKBNU7jQ Twitter account, February 9, 2022).

Summary of ISIS’s activity in the various provinces

Weekly summary of ISIS’s activity

• An infographic published by ISIS summing up its activity around the world in the period between February 3 and February 9, 2022, indicates that in this period, ISIS carried out 35 attacks in its various provinces in Asia and Africa (similarly to last week). The largest number of attacks was carried out by ISIS’s Iraq and West Africa provinces (8 attacks in each). Attacks carried out in the other provinces: Syria (7); Khorasan (i.e., Afghanistan) (7); Central Africa (4); and Sinai (1). A total of 134 people were killed or wounded in the attacks, compared to 73 in the previous week. The largest number of casualties was in the West Africa Province (76). The other casualties were in the following provinces: Iraq (27); Syria (17); Khorasan (9); Central Africa (4); and Sinai (1) (Al-Naba’ weekly, Telegram, February 10, 2022).