MESOPOTAMIA NEWS PKK CHEF KARAYILAN – VON FEINDEN UMGEBEN – DIE SCHLACHT UM HAFTANIN

Karayilan: Wie lange wollen sich die Kurden noch benutzen lassen?

Der Guerillakommandant Murat Karayilan hat sich im TV-Interview zur aktuellen Situation in Heftanîn, den Problemen der türkischen Armee und der Rekrutierung von Dorfbewohnern aus Südkurdistan als Vorhut bei der Invasion geäußert.

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MESOPOTAMIA NEWS INTEL BY MEIR AMIT CENTER / ISRAEL – Spotlight on Global Jihad (August 6-12, 2020)

Overview – Following the wave of attacks referred to by ISIS as the Raids of Attrition, there has been a decrease in the number of ISIS attacks around the world, and its activity in the various provinces has resumed its “routine” characteristics. In the Sinai Peninsula, fighting still continues between the Egyptian security forces and ISIS operatives, about two weeks after the showcase attack in the village of Rabi’a, west of Bir al-Abd. Egyptian security forces with air support continue to work to mop up the area from the presence of ISIS operatives, so far unsuccessfully.

  • One noteworthy attack last week was carried out by ISIS against the Mozambican army in the northeast part of the country. According to ISIS, about 50 soldiers were killed or wounded, and large quantities of weapons were seized. ISIS’s media outlets published photos showing the bodies of at least 18 soldiers. In the other provinces in Africa, ISIS continued to carry out “routine” attacks.
  • The latest issue of ISIS’s Al-Naba’ weekly included an article calling for the release of prisoners by force. In the ITIC’s assessment, the article was published in light of the attack on the prison in Nangarhar (Afghanistan), which may have increased ISIS’s motivation to carry out additional attacks to release the prisoners, especially in Syria and Iraq. In the past, ISIS “specialized” in releasing jihadist s from prisons by force (the highlight of its activity was the release of hundreds of prisoners from the Abu Ghraib Prison on July 21, 2013).
ISIS’s activity in the various provinces around the world
Summary of the results of the wave of attacks known as the Raids of Attrition
  • ISIS’s Al-Naba’ weekly published an infographic summarizing the Raids of Attrition campaign which took place between July 22 and August 3, 2020. According to the infographic, ISIS carried out 136 attacks in its 11 provinces during the campaign, killing 565 people. The largest number of attacks took place in Iraq (43), followed by Syria (35); West Africa (18), Sinai (16), Khorasan, i.e., Afghanistan (6); Yemen (4); Central Africa (4); Somalia (4); Bangladesh (3), East Asia (2); and Pakistan (1).
  • The largest number of casualties (122) was in the Khorasan Province (due to the attack on the prison). It was followed by the West Africa Province with 120 casualties; the Sinai Province with 117 casualties (due to the large-scale attack in northern Sinai); Iraq (86 casualties); and Syria (77 casualties). There were relatively few casualties in the other provinces (Al-Naba’ weekly, as reported on Telegram on August 6, 2020).
Return to “routine” after the Raids of Attrition
  • On August 6, 2020, ISIS’s Al-Naba’ weekly released an infographic entitled “The Harvest of the Fighters,” summing up its activity in the various provinces during the period of July 30 to August 5, 2020 (i.e., on the last two days of the Raids of Attrition, and the five subsequent days). During this period, ISIS operatives carried out a total of 65 attacks around the world, compared to 105 in the preceding week (meaning a decrease of about 40%). Twenty attacks were carried out in Iraq; 19 in Syria; 10 in West Africa (mostly in Nigeria); 5 in the Sinai Peninsula; 4 in Khorasan (i.e., Afghanistan); 3 in Bangladesh; 2 in Central Africa; 1 in Yemen and 1 in Somalia (Al-Naba’ weekly, Telegram, August 6, 2020).
The Syrian arena
The Idlib region

Exchanges of artillery fire

  • In the Idlib region, artillery exchanges between the Syrian army and the rebels continued this week almost on a daily basis. This week as well, most of the incidents took place in Jabal al-Zawiya, south of Idlib. The Syrian army and militias supporting it against the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham took part in the exchange of fire.

Ground activity

  • On August 6, 2020, the rebel organizations halted an infiltration attempt by the militias supporting the Syrian army in the Kurd Mountains, about 45 km southwest of Idlib. The militias sustained casualties (Idlib Plus, August 6, 2020).

The relationship between the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and other Salafist-jihadi organizations in the Idlib region

  • Orwa Ajjoub, a researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Lund University in Sweden, has written an article examining the relationship between the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham (HTS) and other Salafist-jihadi groups in the Idlib enclave, due to the possibility of imminent confrontation between the rival sides.[1]

Overview

  • HTS, the dominant jihadi rebel group in the Idlib region, is aggressively persecuting other armed groups in Syria. According to the author of the article, this is nothing new, since as early as January 2019, HTS launched multiple attacks against the Turkish-backed National Liberation Front, driving its forces out of western Aleppo and the Hama countryside. HTS set up its operations room and forced the armed groups to close their military bases, forbidding them to set up operations rooms of their own.
  • What has changed now is the character of the main rival of HTS. After the Islamic and jihadi armed groups disbanded, they joined the So Be Steadfast operations room[2], whose members had belonged to the Awaken the Believers operations room (headed by the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Guardians of the Religion Organization). The So Be Steadfast operations room comprises Salafist-jihadi groups such as Ansar al-Islam[3] and the Ansar al-Din Front[4].

Detention of senior members of jihadist organizations by HTS

  • HTS has launched numerous attacks against its main rival, the So Be Steadfast operations room. The groups belonging to this operations room oppose the realpolitik (considered by them as an opportunistic approach) of HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani. In June 2020, HTS detained Abu Salah al-Uzbeki, a former senior commander who had defected from HTS and joined the Guardians of Religion Organization. It also detained other jihadi leaders: Abu Malik al-Tali, former member of the HTS advisory council (Shura) who had defected from its ranks; Abu al-Qassam al-Urdini, senior leader of the Guardians of Religion Organization; and a jihadi leader named Bilal al-San’ani. The common denominator between these four commanders is their affiliation with the So Be Steadfast operations room.

Basic gaps between the jihadi groups

  • Due to fundamental disagreements which cannot be resolved through compromises between the rival sides, it is unlikely that the organizations belonging to the So Be Steadfast operations room will fight against the Syrian army under HTS even if they are pressured by to do so by HTS or Turkey. There are major ideological gaps between HTS and the organizations of the So Be Steadfast operations room. In addition, HTS has developed a relationship with Turkey, with both sides cooperating on various issues. The So Be Steadfast operations room objects to the agreements with Turkey regarding Idlib.

What’s next?

  • A full-fledged confrontation between HTS and the So Be Steadfast operations room would be costly for both sides and would not serve the interests of either side. If such a confrontation occurs, the jihadi organizations that make up the So Be Steadfast operations room would have to fight for survival. Instead, what is likely to happen is an increase in economic pressure on the So Be Steadfast operations room, to stifle access to its already limited resources. HTS, its main rival, has actually started doing so in order to weaken and even disband it.
ISIS activity in the Syria Province (according to its claims of responsibility posted on Telegram)

The area of Deir ez-Zor, Al-Mayadeen, and Albukamal

  • On August 10, 2020, ISIS activated an IED against an SDF vehicle about 10 km northeast of Albukamal. Two fighters were wounded.
  • On August 6, 2020, an SDF vehicle was targeted by machine gun fire about 45 km south of Al-Mayadeen. The passengers were killed or wounded.
  • On August 6, 2020, a handgun equipped with a silencer was fired at an SDF commander in the city of Hajin, 25 km north of Albukamal. He was killed.

Al-Sukhnah-Palmyra region (the Syrian Desert)

  • On August 10, 2020, a Syrian army vehicle was targeted by machine gun fire about 60 km southeast of Aleppo (about 20 km east of Khanaser). The passengers were wounded.
  • On August 5, 2020, an IED was activated against a Syrian army truck near the city of Palmyra. The passengers were killed and the truck went up in flames.

The Al-Hasakah area (northeastern Syria)

  • On August 4, 2020, two IEDs were activated against an SDF convoy about 80 km south of Al-Hasakah. Three SDF fighters were killed.

Thwarted attempts to escape from the Al-Hol detention camp

  • In two separate incidents (August 7 and 11, 2020), Kurdish internal security forces thwarted attempts by Russian women and their children to escape from the Al-Hol camp, where families of ISIS operatives are being held (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, August 11, 2020). In one attempt, the women were detected by security cameras and caught while trying to climb over the camp wall (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, August 8, 2020).
The Iraqi arena

Map of the provinces in Iraq (Wikipedia)
Map of the provinces in Iraq (Wikipedia)

ISIS’s attacks (according to its claims of responsibility posted on Telegram)

Al-Anbar Province

  • On August 5, 2020, Popular Mobilization forces were targeted by gunfire near the area of Akashat, about 30 km from the border between Iraq and Syria. Several fighters were wounded.

Salah al-Din Province

  • On August 8, 2020, ISIS operatives exchanged fire with Iraqi police about 80 km north of Baghdad. Several policemen were wounded.
  • On August 5, 2020, IEDs planted by ISIS operatives were activated at the home of an Iraqi army intelligence operative about 80 km north of Baghdad. The house was damaged.
  • On August 5, 2020, Iraqi policemen were targeted by sniper fire east of Samarra. Three policemen were killed. In addition, a force that arrived to offer assistance was ambushed and targeted by machine gun fire. Several fighters were wounded.

Kirkuk Province

  • On August 10, 2020, ISIS operatives attacked Iraqi police and Popular Mobilization forces about 50 km southwest of Kirkuk. ISIS operatives exchanged fire with the forces and then detonated two IEDs against a force that arrived to offer assistance. Six policemen and fighters, including an officer, were killed or wounded. One vehicle was destroyed and the other was put out of commission.
  • On August 7, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle about 70 km south of Kirkuk. The passengers were killed or wounded.

Diyala Province

  • On August 10, 2020, an IED was activated against Popular Mobilization fighters about 80 km northeast of Baqubah. One fighter was killed and two others were wounded.
  • On August 9, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle about 20 km northeast of Baqubah. The passengers were killed or wounded.
  • On August 8, 2020, an Iraqi emergency police compound was targeted by machine gun fire in the city of Al-Miqdadiya, about 40 km north of Baqubah. One policeman was wounded.
  • On August 6, 2020, fighters of the Iraqi Interior Ministry’s commando unit were targeted by sniper fire northwest of Khanaqin (about 100 km north of Baqubah). Two commandos were killed and two others were wounded.
Counterterrorist activities by the Iraqi security forces

Nineveh Province

  • On August 9, 2020, Iraqi security forces located a workshop for manufacturing mortar shells and IEDs (implicitly an ISIS workshop) in the area of Tal Afar (about 60 km west of Mosul). They found 150 mortar shells at the site (Al-Sumaria, August 9, 2020).
Mortar shells found in the workshop (Al-Sumaria, August 9, 2020)     Mortar shells found in the workshop (Al-Sumaria, August 9, 2020)
Mortar shells found in the workshop (Al-Sumaria, August 9, 2020)

Kirkuk Province

  • On August 9, 2020, Iraqi security forces apprehended two ISIS operatives who had provided ISIS operatives in hiding places with logistical assistance, including food and communications devices (Al-Sumaria, August 9, 2020).
  • On August 9, 2020, Iraqi security forces located an ISIS weapons depot in the Kirkuk Province. IEDs, weapons and ammunition were found (Al-Sumaria, August 9, 2020).

ISIS weapons seized in the Kirkuk Province (Al-Sumaria, August 9, 2020)
ISIS weapons seized in the Kirkuk Province
(Al-Sumaria, August 9, 2020)

Salah al-Din Province

  • On August 9, 2020, the Iraqi army announced that ISIS operatives had attacked the home of Ismail Khdeir Halloub, deputy governor of the Salah al-Din Province (about 80 kilometers north of Baghdad). The exchange of fire with the deputy governor’s security guards lasted for about 20 minutes. ISIS operatives withdrew when a force arrived to provide assistance. There were no casualties (Anatolia News Agency, August 9, 2020). On January 3, 2014, there was an attempt on the life of Ismail Khdeir Halloub (apparently by ISIS) by means of an IED detonated against a convoy in which he was traveling about 5 km south of Tikrit. Halloub escaped unharmed but two of his security guards were wounded (Al-Sumaria, January 3, 2014).

Target of assassination attempts: Ismail Khdeir Halloub, deputy governor of the Salah al-Din Province (Facebook, June 30, 2019)
Target of assassination attempts: Ismail Khdeir Halloub, deputy governor of the Salah al-Din Province (Facebook, June 30, 2019)

  • On August 8, 2020, Iraqi security forces located six ISIS operatives who had fled from the Kirkuk Province to the Salah al-Din Province. The six admitted under interrogation that they belonged to ISIS and had previously taken part in attacks against Iraqi security forces (Al-Sumaria, August 8, 2020).

Diyala Province

  • On August 9, 2020, Iraqi security forces in the Diyala Province located an IED ready to be activated and an ISIS Katyusha rocket about 15 km northwest of Baqubah. The IED and the rocket were neutralized (Facebook page of the Iraqi Ministry of Defense, August 9, 2020).
Sulaymaniyah Province
  • On August 11, 2020, Iraqi security forces apprehended three wanted ISIS operatives about 45 km west of Sulaymaniyah (Al-Sumaria, August 11, 2020).

MESOPOTAMIA NEWS – WELL TIMED EXPLOSIONS ! – Second Explosion Expected in Lebanon Later This Month

By Dr. Edy CohenAugust 12, 2020- BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,688, August 12, 2020 ISRAEL

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Even as Lebanon tries to recover from the terrible wounds inflicted by the devastating explosion that took place at the port of Beirut on August 4, another explosion could hit the country on the 18th of this month: the Hague’s verdict on the alleged perpetrators of the assassination of Lebanese PM Rafic Hariri.

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MESOPOTAMIA NEWS INTEL THE RED CHINA THREAT :   CHINA’S MILITARY-CIVIL FUSION STRATEGY

 

 13 Aug 2020 BY SOUFAN CENTER – Bottom Line Up Front:

 China’s military-civil fusion (MCF) project aims to harness the capability of the country’s civilian sectors, including science, and technology, to advance China’s military, economic, and technological prowess.

 

  • MCF serves as a lynchpin of China’s goal to develop a ‘world class military’ by 2049.
  • Under Xi, the MCF project has been elevated to a national military strategy, raising concerns about Beijing’s illegal transfer of exquisite dual-use technology from the private sector and academia to the People’s Liberation Army
  • The Chinese Communist Party’s lack of transparency regarding MCF, coupled with Xi’s aggressive foreign policy, places China on a collision course with other countries and could destabilize the broader region.
China’s military-civil fusion (MCF) strategy aims to aid China in its quest to become a global power. In the process, it has raised concerns about how other countries should respond to cyberespionage, intellectual property theft, and the illegal transfer of certain dual-use technologies—these issues span the private sector to academia. Though the concept of a military-civil integration has been a component of modern Chinese governing principles since Mao Zedong, the current principle of military-civil fusion was officially incorporated as a military strategy under President Xi Jinping. Xi personally oversees the implementation and execution of the MCF under the Central Military Commission—signaling the centrality of the strategy to China’s military goals, including a completed military modernization by 2035, and training and equipping a ‘world class military’ by 2049.

The principal ideas behind the MCF include harnessing China’s economic success in order to advance its military capability—for example through ‘Made in China 2025’—while also enabling mobilization of the economy for future military conflicts. The Chinese Defense sector, contrary to that of the United States, has historically been relegated to the domain of the Chinese military and a dozen state-owned enterprises. The MCF strategy seeks to effectively break down barriers between the private sector, academia, research and technology and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), enabling the latter to employ any dual-use industries and technologies for military advancements and capabilities development. Areas that have been identified for specific interest include artificial intelligence (AI), aerospace technology, micro and nano satellites, automated systems and robotics, semiconductors, advanced nuclear technology, quantum computing, and more. Analysts have noted that Xi’s apparent emphasis on MCF could suggest that China is desperately playing catch-up with the United States and other countries that have a robust private R&D sector. The MCF has been plagued by many of the same ills that other top-down strategies implemented by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have experienced—corruption, waste, and uncoordinated leadership.

Evidence suggests that China’s MCF strategy is also being implemented abroad, which not only threatens other countries’ national security, but also their commercial and economic interests. This competition could intensify as countries look to recover from the devastating economic impact of COVID-19. The United States, the United Kingdom, European states, and Australia fear that China’s MCF strategy further enables and incentivizes illegal transfers of dual-use technology and other critical industries from the commercial and academic sectors to the PLA. Such illegal transfers can occur through exports, foreign direct investment and acquisitions, cyberespionage, traditional industrial espionage, research collaboration and talent acquisition, and influence operations. Under Xi’s intensified implementation of the MCF, the already blurred line between China’s private and public sector has been further obfuscated, an arrangement posing obvious security threats. The examples are numerous. German-produced engines exported to China for commercial use are now found in PLA Navy submarines and frigates. According to FBI director Christopher Wray, ‘Over the past decade, [the FBI has] seen economic espionage cases with a link to China increase by approximately 1,300 percent.’ The Australian Strategic Policy Institute estimates that since 2007, over 2,500 military scientists and engineers have been sponsored by the PLA to study abroad, especially in Five Eyes countries (US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand). China’s application of the MCF abroad threatens the democratization of science and the philosophy of academic openness and collaboration. Transnational research collaboration is key to combatting the most pressing security challenges of our time, including global health crises and climate change.

The elevation of the MCF to a national strategy and the general lack of transparency surrounding this strategy, coupled with president Xi’s increasingly assertive foreign policy, raises questions about China’s intent. One of Xi’s signature foreign policies, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has been heavily criticized for entrapping cash-strapped countries in debts that cannot be repaid. When countries default on their Chinese loans, commercial ventures along BRI have been re-purposed by China for military use—such as the PLA base in Djibouti. The PLA has capitalized on the COVID-19 pandemic and instituted its own version of ‘mask diplomacy,’ targeting countries along the BRI for military aid, likely to garner good-will and buy-in from elites and military officials in those countries. In the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, Beijing has displayed little willingness to forgive debt compared to Western-led lending institutions, like the International Monetary Fund. Such actions challenge the CCP’s statements that the BRI is an exclusively economic and commerce-oriented policy and raises concerns that the BRI plays a role in complementing the MCF project. The COVID-19 pandemic may prove to further infringe upon states’ sovereignty and aid Xi’s implementation of the MCF strategy abroad.

 

 

MESOPOTAMIA NEWS FOLLOW UP: After the Beirut Explosion, Hezbollah Remains In Charge

By Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Mordechai KedarAugust 12, 2020 – ISRAEL  – BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,689, August 12, 2020

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: On August 4, when Beirut Port was destroyed by a massive explosion, Hezbollah suffered a blow—but its ability to shift its illegal arms smuggling and drug export operations from Beirut to other locations in Lebanon will enable it to remain in control of the country.

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MESOPOTAMIA NEWS : DEUTSCHES GELD GEZIELT VERWENDET !

Skandal in Rom : Abgeordnete erschleichen sich Corona-Hilfen

  • Von Matthias Rüb, Rom  – FAZ – -Aktualisiert am 13.08.2020-08:07  – Nirgendwo in Europa bekommen Abgeordnete so hohe Diäten wie im italienischen Parlament. Das hinderte fünf Abgeordnete nicht daran, zusätzlich auch noch die Corona-Hilfe für Selbstständige zu beantragen.

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MESOPOTAMIA NEWS : DIE LETZTEN TAGE VON EUROPA / JAKOBINISCH-LINKER MEINUNGSTERROR

  • Kult der Korrektheit : Vergiftetes Klima an britischen Universitäten

  • Von Philip Plickert, London  – FAZ – -Aktualisiert am 13.08.2020-10:11 – Die Universität Oxford

Eine neue Studie heizt die Diskussion um die Meinungsfreiheit an britischen Universitäten an. Ihr zufolge greifen konservative Hochschullehrer vermehrt zur Selbstzensur, um stigmatisierenden Angriffen vorzubeugen.

Der einst so liberale Geist, der britische Hochschulen auszeichnete, scheint sich zu verflüchtigen. Eine neue Umfrage unter Professoren und Dozenten hat die Diskussion über eine „Cancel Culture“ unter Akademikern angeheizt. Es gebe Diskriminierung und Einschüchterung, dies könne zu Selbstzensur führen und damit die Wissenschaftsfreiheit zerstören, so das Fazit der Studie „Academic freedom in the UK“ der Politikwissenschaftler Remi Adekoya (Universität Sheffield), Eric Kaufmann (Birkbeck College, Universität London) und Thomas Simson (Oxford). Ihr Report, den der liberal-konservative Thinktank Policy Exchange soeben veröffentlichte, hat eine lebhafte Debatte ausgelöst.

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MESOPOTAMIA NEWS FOCUS: US team to Qatar to probe its alleged finance of Hezbollah – report

“We will continue to closely work together to stop the financing of terrorist organizations like Hezbollah,” says US.

By BENJAMIN WEINTHALJONATHAN SPYER   – JERUSALEM POST  AUGUST 12, 2020

A team of US government officials traveled on Wednesday to Qatar amid intense international coverage of the monarchy’s alleged role in financing the Lebanese terrorist movement, Hezbollah.

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MESOPOTAMIA NEWS “EXPULSION” :THE GREAT & CHEAP TRANSFER OF A  POPULATION  for 100 USD per Person !

From Gaza to Paraguay? The Israeli government’s 1969 transfer plans

The plan was approved in the same year as the Mossad stopped hunting Nazis, including in Paraguay, where notorious doctor Josef Mengele and many other Nazis were living at the time.

By LAHAV HARKOV   – JERUSALEM POST – AUGUST 12, 2020 19:53

The government of Israel secretly planned to encourage Palestinians to move from Gaza to Paraguay, which agreed to accept up to 60,000 of them, according to the minutes from a 1969 cabinet meeting uncovered by KAN journalist Eran Cicurel this week.

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MESOPOTAMIA NEWS INTEL BY MEIR AMIT CENTER / ISRAEL – Hezbollah’s response to the Beirut disaster (updated to August 9, 2020)

Islamic Health Organization providing assistance to victims of the explosion (Zahraa Khatun’s Twitter account, August 6, 2020).

Islamic Health Organization providing assistance to victims of the explosion (Zahraa Khatun’s Twitter

Overview
  • Following the explosion in Beirut (August 4, 2020), Hezbollah launched a media campaign centered on denying any connection to the explosion. Thus, Hezbollah (unusually) refrained from blaming Israel for the explosion because this might have strengthened the allegation that Hezbollah had chemicals or weapons at the port. Hezbollah has blamed senior figures in Lebanese governments since 2014 for the disaster. Hezbollah has demanded an internal Lebanese investigation, on the assumption that it would have control over the results, and has vehemently opposed an international investigation.
  • Another key motif in Hezbollah’s initial response was solidarity with the victims of the explosion. To reinforce this media message, Hezbollah provided practical assistance to the victims of the explosion through the civilian foundations of its “state within a state.” Hospitals of Hezbollah’s health organization and the Martyrs Foundation have received hundreds of wounded, Hezbollah operatives have launched a large-scale blood drive, and Hezbollah’s municipal institutions in the southern Shiite suburb (Dahiya) have sent search and rescue forces to the disaster area. In addition, Hezbollah’s media outlets provided extensive coverage of Iran’s assistance to Lebanon and the expressions of solidarity with Lebanon by countries and organizations which are part of the radical axis.
  • In the days following the explosion, and especially after the demonstrations on August 8, some “offensive” messages against the demonstrators were also conveyed. The reason for this was the demonstrators’ demands of a fundamental change in the Lebanese sectarian regime (“revolution”), of which Hezbollah and the Shiite community are a key component. The slogans against Hezbollah and the display of Nasrallah (along with Lebanese senior leaders) being hanged in effigy added fuel to the fire. Senior Hezbollah officials and Hezbollah’s media outlets have accused the demonstrators of being part of a “plot” aimed at exploiting the tragedy to weaken Hezbollah’s position. Blatant threats to harm the demonstrators were posted on social media.

As for the Israeli perspective: on the eve of the explosion in Beirut, Hezbollah’s response to the attack in Syria (July 20, 2020) was on the agenda. Hassan Nasrallah (and the organization’s media outlets) refrained from commenting on the issue after the Beirut disaster. However, Ibrahim al-Amin, editor of the Hezbollah-affiliated newspaper Al-Akhbar, wrote an editorial explicitly stating that “the response of the resistance will come,” and it will be a bloody response whose objective is both to punish and to deter.

Main developments in Beirut: Overview

On the afternoon of August 4, 2020, there was a violent explosion in the Port of Beirut. The explosion killed more than 158 people and injured more than 6,000. Scores of people are still missing, buried under the rubble of houses (reports from the Lebanese Ministry of Health, updated to August 8, 2020). As a result of the explosion, the Port of Beirut was heavily damaged, about 8,000 buildings were damaged, about 250,000 people were left homeless and tens of thousands of people lost their property and livelihoods. The damage from the explosion is estimated at tens of billions of dollars.

The Port of Beirut before (left) and after the explosion (right) (ImageSat International (ISI), August 5, 2020)
The Port of Beirut before (left) and after the explosion (right) (ImageSat International (ISI), August 5, 2020)

The moment of the explosion at the Port of Beirut (BMrong’s Twitter account, August 9, 2020)
The moment of the explosion at the Port of Beirut
(BMrong’s Twitter account, August 9, 2020)

  • According to initial reports, the explosion occurred in warehouse number 12 at the Port of Beirut, which was used for storing about 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate (a chemical with a high nitrogen content, used as an agricultural fertilizer; it is also used for manufacturing explosives). The ammonium nitrate arrived at the Port of Beirut by ship in October 2013[1]. The ship was seized by the Lebanese authorities and the ammonium nitrate remained at the port. The actual cause of the explosion is not yet clear and the issue is expected to be investigated. The official version (whose reliability is unclear) indicates a fire that broke out as a result of renovation work in warehouse number 12.

The area in west Beirut (mostly Sunni), which was directly affected by the explosion (ImageSat International (ISI), August 5, 2020)
The area in west Beirut (mostly Sunni), which was directly affected by the explosion
(ImageSat International (ISI), August 5, 2020)

  • The dire consequences of the explosion provoked considerable outrage in Lebanon, and the disgust at the corrupt political system, which has been seething for nearly a year, erupted again with great force. On August 8, 2020, violent demonstrations were held in Beirut against the Lebanese regime, with the participation of thousands of demonstrators. The demonstrators attempted to break into the Parliament building but were forcibly repulsed by the security forces (live ammunition was reportedly fired at the demonstrators). In other demonstrations, the demonstrators broke into the Foreign Ministry building, several other government offices and the Banks Authority building. A Lebanese soldier and several members of the security forces were killed in the demonstrations. Rescue services reported that nearly 240 demonstrators were injured, 60 of whom were taken to hospitals for treatment.
  • The demonstrators not only called for the people responsible for the disaster to be brought to justice, but also called for a fundamental change in the Lebanese sectarian regime (“a revolution”). The demonstrators condemned the sectarian regime in Lebanon (“the sectarian regime produces terrorism”) and waved signs condemning the senior members of the three sects on which Lebanon’s regime is based: (Christian) President Michel Aoun, (Sunni) Prime Minister Hassan Diab, and (Shiite) leaders Hassan Nasrallah (Hezbollah) and Nabih Berri (Amal).
  • The demonstrators prepared a display showing senior members of the regime, including Hassan Nasrallah, being hung in effigy. The demonstrators shouted “The people want to overthrow the regime” and “Get out, you are all murderers”. Slogans condemning Hezbollah (“Hezbollah is a terrorist organization”) and calls for the demilitarization of Beirut were also heard. The calls against Hezbollah were made primarily because it is a key component of Lebanon’s sectarian regime, but also in view of the profound suspicion that Hezbollah was responsible for the disaster that befell Beirut.

Presentation of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah (right) and Speaker of the Parliament of Lebanon Nabih Berri (left) hanging in effigy (anan_80 Twitter account, August 8, 2020)
Presentation of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah (right) and Speaker of the Parliament of Lebanon Nabih Berri (left) hanging in effigy (anan_80 Twitter account, August 8, 2020)

Hezbollah’s media campaign
Response

The day after the explosion (August 5, 2020), Hezbollah launched a media campaign which was initially apologetic and defensive. However, after the demonstrations it became offensive as well. At the defensive level, Hezbollah attempted to repulse accusations of Hezbollah being responsible for the explosion. At the offensive level, Hezbollah blamed its opponents, presenting them as being “behind a large-scale, regional and international plot” against it. In addition, posts on social media threatened that Hezbollah operatives and supporters would physically harm the demonstrators. So far, Hezbollah has refrained from acting on these threats.

  • The initial official response was published on August 5, 2020, the day after the attack, as a statement by the chairman of the Hezbollah faction in Parliament (the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc) and a statement issued by Hezbollah. Two days later (August 7, 2020), Nasrallah delivered a speech that had been scheduled for the evening of August 4, 2020, but was postponed due to the explosion and the declaration of the days of national mourning. Hezbollah’s media campaign incorporated Hezbollah’s media outlets and Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets (chiefly the newspaper Al-Akhbar and Al-Mayadeen TV). Hezbollah’s supporters on social media paid close attention to the explosion and its aftermath.

Nasrallah’s speech following the explosion (August 7, 2020). In the background there is a map of Lebanon in the form of the Lebanese flag, with the caption: “Beirut is the heart of the nation. Mercy for the shahids, recovery for the wounded.” Pictures of Hezbollah shahids and the Hezbollah flag, which appeared in the background in Nasrallah’s previous speeches, were absent this time. The map of Lebanon in the form of the Lebanese flag is intended to reinforce Nasrallah’s message that the disaster transcends ethnicity and that it has harmed all the ethnic groups.
Nasrallah’s speech following the explosion (August 7, 2020). In the background there is a map of Lebanon in the form of the Lebanese flag, with the caption: “Beirut is the heart of the nation. Mercy for the shahids, recovery for the wounded.” Pictures of Hezbollah shahids and the Hezbollah flag, which appeared in the background in Nasrallah’s previous speeches, were absent this time. The map of Lebanon in the form of the Lebanese flag is intended to reinforce Nasrallah’s message that the disaster transcends ethnicity and that it has harmed all the ethnic groups.

The main message: Hezbollah had nothing to do with the explosion

Hezbollah’s main message was a vehement denial of its involvement in the explosion. Thus, Hezbollah (unusually) refrained from blaming Israel for the explosion because this might have strengthened the accusations that Hezbollah had stored chemicals or weapons at the port. For this reason, Hassan Nasrallah supported a so-called professional investigation by the Lebanese army but objected to an international investigation (the report of the investigation into the assassination of the late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, which accuses Hezbollah, will soon be published).

  • As part of the main message, several motifs are evident:
    • Hezbollah is not responsible for the explosion and has no weapons depots at the port. Hassan Nasrallah stressed this claim in his speech on August 7, 2020: “I deny everything, absolutely and definitively: there is nothing of ours at the port. There is no weapons depot, no missile depot, no missile, no rifle, no grenade, no rifle bullet, no [ammonium] nitrate. There is no such thing, by any means. No warehouse and nothing else. Not now, not in the past, by any means. There is no such thing, by any means” (Twitter account of Ali Shueib, Al-Manar TV reporter in southern Lebanon, August 7, 2020).
    • The responsibility for the explosion rests with senior Lebanese government officials, beginning in 2014, when the hazardous material was confiscated and stored at the port (Al-Akhbar, August 5-6, 2020; Nasrallah’s speech on August 7, 2020). On her Facebook page, Walaa Hamoud, mother of the shahid Hussein Kamal Hamoud[2], went so far as to explicitly accuse specific figures: MP Marwan Hamadeh (who resigned immediately after the explosion), former Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and former Transport Minister Ghazi Aridi, who held office at the time when the dangerous cargo was stored at the port; and judges who dismissed the application to release the cargo or have it removed from the port (Facebook page of Walaa Hamoud, the mother of a shahid, August 4 and 5, 2020).
    • Support for an investigation by the Lebanese army and vehement objection to an international investigation (on the assumption that Hezbollah will have control over the results of the Lebanese army investigation). In his speech, Hassan Nasrallah notes that the Lebanese army has the professional capabilities to discover the truth, and other institutions could also take part, if necessary. On the other hand, Hezbollah figures vehemently opposed the existence of an international commission of inquiry and even threatened that the call for such a commission would lead to a “new civil war in Lebanon” (Hezbollah operative Qassem Qassir in an interview with Al-Jazeera).
    • The absence of accusations regarding Israel’s involvement in the explosion: in his speech, Hassan Nasrallah refrained from blaming Israel for the explosion in the Port of Beirut, nor was this accusation made by other senior officials or supporters of Hezbollah. However, Al-Manar reporter Samer Hajj Ali, unlike the others, did blame Israel (Samer Hajj Ali’s Twitter account, August 5, 2020). One of Hezbollah’s supporters warned against making such accusations because they force Hezbollah to respond without being sure that Israel is indeed to blame (Twitter account of Younes al-Zaatari, a Hezbollah supporter who monitors the Israeli media, August 6, 2020).
Solidarity with the victims
  • A considerable portion of Hezbollah’s media activity dealt with solidarity with the victims of the explosion (for a practical implementation of this solidarity, see below):
    • Hezbollah supporters posted laments for Beirut on social media; posters expressing solidarity with the victims; calls to replace Facebook profile photos with photos of the explosion. In its broadcasts (August 6, 2020), Hezbollah’s Al-Nour Radio included love songs for Beirut and laments about the disaster that befell it. One of its programs was devoted to linking up renovation contractors with those in need of assistance.
    • Announcements have been made about the opening of homes and public institutions for Beirut residents whose homes were destroyed (the wording of the offers suggests that Beirut’s Shiite southern suburb suffered far less damage than Sunni western Beirut). Hezbollah supporters on social media have also been involved in locating and disseminating information about missing persons (Facebook page of Walaa Hamoud, mother of a shahid, August 4, 2020; Twitter account of Zainab Mughniyeh, Imad Mughniyeh’s sister, August 5, 2020).
Extensive coverage of assistance from Iran and the radical axis
  • On August 5, 2020, Iran began sending special aid flights to Beirut carrying medical equipment, medical teams, humanitarian aid, food and medicine on behalf of the Iranian Red Crescent (ILNA, August 5, 2020). Hezbollah’s media outlets provided extensive coverage of Iran’s assistance to Lebanon and the expressions of solidarity with Lebanon by the countries and organizations of the radical axis.
  • The Facebook and Twitter pages of Hezbollah operatives and supporters included expressions of “axis solidarity” with Lebanon: Syria’s readiness to accept people with severe injuries; Iran airlifting medical aid to Beirut; prayers in Iran in honor of the incident; Iraq sending diesel fuel and wheat by land; the residents of Yemen and the Gaza Strip identifying with the residents of Lebanon.
 PIJ operatives in the Gaza Strip with the caption #We are all Lebanon (Twitter account of Younes al-Zaatari, a Hezbollah supporter who monitors the Israeli media, August 7, 2020).  Iranian Red Crescent aid packages en route to Beirut. According to the report, these are 2,000 food packages for 72 hours, following which Iran will also send medicines, medical equipment and a fully-staffed hospital (Twitter account of the Khabar Network in Farsi, August 5, 2020).
Right: Iranian Red Crescent aid packages en route to Beirut. According to the report, these are 2,000 food packages for 72 hours, following which Iran will also send medicines, medical equipment and a fully-staffed hospital (Twitter account of the Khabar Network in Farsi, August 5, 2020). Left: PIJ operatives in the Gaza Strip with the caption #We are all Lebanon (Twitter account of Younes al-Zaatari, a Hezbollah supporter who monitors the Israeli media, August 7, 2020).
 Yemeni boy holding a sign that reads: “From Taizz to Beirut in Lebanon, our heart is with you” (Facebook page of Yaroun at Heart, local news website in the village of Yaroun in southern Lebanon, August 6, 2020)  Demonstration of solidarity with Lebanon on the Gaza Strip beach (Mahmoud Bassam’s Twitter account, August 7, 2020).
Right: Demonstration of solidarity with Lebanon on the Gaza Strip beach (Mahmoud Bassam’s Twitter account, August 7, 2020). Left: Yemeni boy holding a sign that reads: “From Taizz to Beirut in Lebanon, our heart is with you” (Facebook page of Yaroun at Heart, local news website in the village of Yaroun in southern Lebanon, August 6, 2020)
Hezbollah as a victim of a regional and international “plot”
  • Another prominent motif in Hezbollah’s response to the incident is the claim that the accusations leveled against Hezbollah by its opponents are a “plot” against it. The objective of this “plot” is to exploit the tragedy in order to oust the organization from its positions in the country. The main points of this claim were made by the Al-Akhbar reporter Maisam Rizek, in his article “March 14 after August 4: it’s as if the assassination of Rafik al-Hariri took place the day before yesterday” (August 6, 2020). According to the article, the conduct of the March 14 Camp in the hours and days following the explosion was similar to the conduct of the anti-Syrian camp in Lebanon following the assassination of Hariri in 2005 (Al-Akhbar, August 6, 2020). Al-Akhbar’s editor, Ibrahim al-Amin, also addressed this claim extensively in his editorial on that same day. In the editorial, he describes how various entities view the disaster as an opportunity to advance their interests in Lebanon, mainly ousting Hezbollah from its positions, holding early elections, and imposing a Western-backed government (these entities include the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, also known as the Lebanon Tribunal or the Hariri Tribunal, the United States, France, the Gulf States, Israel and the March 14 Camp) (Al-Akhbar, August 6, 2020).
  • In his speech, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah implicitly referred to the so-called plot: “… maybe some people are worried or apprehensive or do not understand what the atmosphere is, a major international and regional plot. The regional situation is different, the international situation is different, our own situation is different, the situation of the resistance is different – in this respect, no one has any reason to worry. They are looking for a mirage, they have always been looking for a mirage. Their elections have always led to disappointment and loss, and I tell them: as you have been disappointed in the past, so you will be disappointed in the future. You will not achieve a result. This resistance – in its credibility, in the Lebanese people’s faith in it, in its battles […] is too great […] to be harmed by a few oppressors, liars, distorters of facts, instigators at the sectarian level and civil warmongers. When they tried, they always failed, and they are going to fail” (Twitter account of Ali Shueib, Al-Manar TV reporter in southern Lebanon, August 7, 2020).
Defaming the demonstrators and threatening to physically harm them
  • Up to now, the demonstrators have been defamed and counter-threats have been made by Hezbollah operatives and supporters only on social media. They claimed that “the mask has now been removed” and it is clearly evident that the demonstrators were striving to create a civil war against the Lebanese. On his Twitter account, (Hezbollah supporter) Abu Issa wrote (August 8, 2020): “The one who blew up the port is the one who took the people (to the streets) today, having received accurate instructions.” On his Twitter account, (Al-Manar reporter) Ali Shueib wrote (August 8, 2020): “The murderer Samir Jaja now intensifies the massacre of the port’s victims by creating a civil war between the Lebanese […].”
  • Some of the responses included threats to physically harm the demonstrators:
    • I swear, when he [Nasrallah] gives the order, you [the demonstrators] will eat what you have not yet eaten” (Twitter account of Hezbollah supporter Nabil Abd al-Sater, August 8, 2020).
    • “I, personally, am in favor of going down to the demonstration, hitting and breaking the bones of everyone there and throwing them into the sea. May “coexistence” be cursed. Thank you” (Twitter account of wounded Hezbollah operative Muhtadi Bahmad, August 8, 2020).
    • “Wherever I see revolutionaries [i.e., demonstrators], I will pamper them like they have never before been pampered” (Twitter account of wounded Hezbollah operative Muhtadi Bahmad, August 8, 2020).
    • “If he [Nasrallah] had pointed at your square with his right hand, we would have finished you in the blink of an eye. But, it is enough for us that he is one of the people of moderation and basirah [deep vision, understanding of intentions] #By Allah you will not manage to harm the #secretary general [i.e., Hassan Nasrallah]” (Twitter account of Hezbollah supporter Abu Ali Nasr, August 8, 2020).
Practical assistance to the victims
  • After the explosion, Hezbollah announced that it was placing all of its resources at the disposal of the residents and the state (official statement by Hezbollah following the incident, Arabi Press News Agency, August 5, 2020). Following this statement, Hezbollah activated parts of its civilian infrastructure to assist the Lebanese government in coping with the explosion and its aftermath. Following are a number of examples:
    • Hospitals and medical centers of the Martyrs Foundation[3] and the Islamic Health Organization[4], two foundations in the “state within a state” established by Hezbollah, have mounted a widespread blood drive, distributing the donated blood to all the hospitals in the area (Facebook page of the Islamic Health Organization, August 4, 2020; Ali Shueib’s Twitter account, August 4, 2020).
    • Hospitals of the Martyrs Foundation received hundreds of people injured in the explosion (Al-Akhbar, August 5, 2020; Facebook page of Al-Rasoul al-A’zam Hospital, the Martyrs Foundation, August 5, 2020).
    • Hezbollah-affiliated local government officials[5] such as the Dahiya’s Municipal Association, have opened assistance hotlines and have offered temporary shelter to those whose homes were damaged in the explosion (Al-Tansiqiyah Facebook page, August 4, 2020; Ali Shueib’s Twitter account, August 5, 2020; Al-Akhbar, August 6, 2020). Municipal bodies in the Dahiya also sent search and rescue forces to assist residents in dealing with the aftermath of the explosion (Facebook page of the Dahiya Municipal Association, August 5, 2020).
    • Hezbollah’s youth movement, the Imam al-Mahdi Scouts[6]has organized clean-up campaigns in neighborhoods near the port (Mirza the Farmer’s Twitter account (@mirza_50000), August 5, 2020; Facebook page of the General Commission of the Imam al-Mahdi Scouts Association, August 6, 2020).
Imam al-Mahdi Scout clean-up campaign in the neighborhoods near the site of the explosion and assistance to the victims (Mirza the Farmer’s Twitter account (@mirza_50000), August 5, 2020; Facebook page of the General Commission of the Imam al-Mahdi Scouts Association, August 6, 2020)     Imam al-Mahdi Scout clean-up campaign in the neighborhoods near the site of the explosion and assistance to the victims (Mirza the Farmer’s Twitter account (@mirza_50000), August 5, 2020; Facebook page of the General Commission of the Imam al-Mahdi Scouts Association, August 6, 2020)
Imam al-Mahdi Scout clean-up campaign in the neighborhoods near the site of the explosion and assistance to the victims (Mirza the Farmer’s Twitter account (@mirza_50000), August 5, 2020; Facebook page of the General Commission of the Imam al-Mahdi Scouts Association, August 6, 2020)
  • The Islamic Health Organization has sent search and rescue teams and medical teams to the Port of Beirut. (Twitter account of Al-Manar announcer and reporter Hassan Khalifa, August 7, 2020; Egoz Sahili’s Twitter account, August 7, 2020).
 Islamic Health Organization workers searching for missing persons under rubble (Al-Tansiqiyah Facebook page, August 6, 2020).    Islamic Health Organization providing assistance to victims of the explosion (Zahraa Khatun’s Twitter account, August 6, 2020).
Right: Islamic Health Organization providing assistance to victims of the explosion (Zahraa Khatun’s Twitter account, August 6, 2020). Left: Islamic Health Organization workers searching for missing persons under rubble (Al-Tansiqiyah Facebook page, August 6, 2020).
The “equation of deterrence” vis-à-vis Israel: The explosion will not make Hezbollah cancel its response to “the crime in Syria”

On the eve of the explosion in Beirut, Hezbollah’s response to the death of one of its operatives in an attack near Damascus Airport (July 20, 2020) was on the agenda. In his speech on August 7, 2020, Hassan Nasrallah stated that he had planned to speak on August 5, 2020, and talk about current issues, including the situation on the border with Israel and the situation between the “resistance” and Israel. However, after the disaster, the speech was postponed and now, according to Nasrallah, the only issue on the agenda is the human tragedy that has befallen Lebanon. However, Ibrahim al-Amin, editor of the Hezbollah-affiliated newspaper Al-Akhbar, made it clear that the explosion would not lead to the cancellation of Hezbollah’s response to the so-called crime in Syria and that the organization would not give up its “equation of deterrence” against Israel.

  • On August 6, 2020, Ibrahim al-Amin, who is affiliated with Hezbollah and expresses its views, published an editorial commenting on Hezbollah’s anticipated response:

Those who gamble that the explosion at the port will cause Hezbollah to cancel the decision to respond to the crime in Syria, are thinking incorrectly once again. This is because they believe the resistance has become entangled and needs a ladder to climb down from the tree. However, they will understand very well that the response of the resistance will come and that it will be a bloody response against the forces of the occupation, whose goal is both to punish and to deter.

What the enemy is trying to overestimate, however, is that the resistance does not want a widespread war; and as a result, [the enemy] is interpreting it as a sign of weakness, but this is a completely incorrect analysis. The resistance does not want a war, but it also does not want a campaign of sorts between wars, which leads to results that even an overall Israeli war cannot bring. Furthermore, the resistance, which has established the equation of deterrence for four decades, is even prepared to go to war, in which it will cause Israel to pay a price that has also not been estimated.”

  • Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, on his part, has refrained from commenting explicitly on Hezbollah’s response to the attack in Syria, preferring to present Hezbollah as a defender of Lebanon, and Hezbollah’s strategy as a “strategy for defending Lebanon.” This (false) presentation obscures Hezbollah’s being part of the radical axis led by Iran and legitimizes the accumulation of Hezbollah’s large arsenal of weapons. Following is a relevant excerpt from Nasrallah’s speech:

“We do not manage the port, we do not control the port, we do not govern the port, we do not intervene in the port, we do not know what happened in the port and what is in the port. Some people said, ‘Well, is it possible that you know the Port of Haifa better than you know the Port of Beirut?’ – This is correct! Hezbollah’s fundamental responsibility is resistance. It is possible that Hezbollah knows the Port of Haifa better than it knows the Port of Beirut. The Port of Beirut is not its responsibility, but the Port of Haifa is its responsibility, because the Port of Haifa is part of the equation of deterrence and Lebanon’s defense strategy[7]. But Hezbollah does not manage or control or intervene and does not know what is happening in the Port of Beirut, what is there and what is not there and how things are managed. This is a matter that we are not familiar with and we do not intervene in it under any circumstances” (Euronews YouTube channel, August 7, 2020).

[1] Hassan Nasrallah is well aware of the destructive potential of ammonium nitrate. On February 16, 2016, the ammonium tank in Haifa Bay was mentioned in his speech. Hassan Nasrallah sent a deterrent message to Israel that Hezbollah possesses precise missiles, enabling it to hit the ammonium tank, and that Israel would pay a heavy price. Haifa Bay, Nasrallah noted, is home to 800,000 people and if Hezbollah hits the tank, this would result in the deaths of tens of thousands (See the ITIC’s Information Bulletin from February 25, 2016: “Hassan Nasrallah’s Ammonia Speech: The Threat for Israel and Its Significance”). 
[2] A Hezbollah operative from the village of Markaba in southern Lebanon, was killed in November 2015 in Al-Zabadani. 

[3] For more information, see the ITIC’s Information Bulletin from April 11, 2019: “Hezbollah’s Martyrs Foundation: purpose, mode of operation, and funding methods” 

[4] For more information, see the ITIC’s Information Bulletin from August 15, 2019: “The Islamic Health Organization: Hezbollah institution providing health services to Hezbollah operatives and the Shiite population in general as a means for gaining influence and creating a Shiite mini-state within Lebanon

[5] For more information, see the ITIC’s Information Bulletin from October 7, 2019: “Resistance society: Hezbollah’s municipal activity

[6] For more information, see the ITIC’s Information Bulletin from July 11, 2019: “The Imam Al-Mahdi Scouts Association: Hezbollah’s youth movement which indoctrinates youth with Iranian radical Shiite Islam and serves as a source of youngsters who join Hezbollah” 

[7] On February 16, 2010, in a speech in honor of Shahid Commanders Day, Nasrallah said: “If you attack Rafik Al-Hariri International Airport in the capital, we will attack Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv. If you attack our ports, we will attack your ports. If you attack our oil refineries, we will attack your oil refineries. If you bomb our factories, we will bomb your factories. If you bomb our power plants, we will bomb your power plants” (Dunya al-Watan, February 17, 2010). 

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