Featuring Vladimir Pran, Hannah Roberts, Wael Sawah, Zahra Albarazi, Emile Hokayem, and Emma Beals Policy Forum Report
May 26, 2021
A panel of experts discuss the short- and long-term implications of the 2021 presidential vote, including its potential effects on domestic opposition, regional normalization, future peace prospects, and Western policy.
On May 21, The Washington Institute held a virtual Policy Forum with Vladimir Pran, Hannah Roberts, Wael Sawah, Zahra Albarazi, Emile Hokayem, and Emma Beals. Pran is a senior advisor with the Middle East division at the International Foundation for Electoral Systems. Roberts is an election specialist working with the same foundation. Sawah is a senior political researcher at the civil society organization ETANA Syria. Albarazi is co-director of the Syrian Legal Development Programme. Hokayem is a senior fellow for Middle East security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Beals is a senior advisor on Syria at the European Institute of Peace. The following is a rapporteur’s summary of their remarks.
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Blinken faces hurdles in US plans to mend Palestinian ties and aid Gaza. Israel at odds with US on Jerusalem, Iran
DEBKA FILES ISRAEL 26 May 2021 – -In the two days he spent in Israel – and a few hours in Ramallah – on Wednesday, May 26, visiting US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had a hard time pushing forward the big plans he arrived with. One is getting two billion dollars of reconstruction aid to the Gaza Strip without the money touching the hands of its Hamas rulers, preferably through the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah; and, two, mending the US breach with the Palestinians dating from the Trump era by reopening the separate US consulate in Jerusalem that once served the Palestinians.
Before setting sail, the ambitious US-led international aid plan for Gaza ran aground on four rocky shoals::
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Funeral held for four Hamas terrorist operatives (QudsN Facebook page, May 24, 2021).
Activity after the reopening of the fishing zone (Palinfo Twitter account, May 25, 2021)
Activity after the reopening of the fishing zone (Palinfo Twitter account, May 25, 2021)
Humanitarian assistance from Egypt for the Gaza Strip (Twitter account of journalist Hassan Aslih, May 23, 2021).
Removing the rubble (Wafa, May 23, 2021)
Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, attends the memorial rally for the casualties of Operation Guardian of the Walls (Palinfo Twitter account, May 24, 2021).
Yahya al-Sinwar holds the son of a military-terrorist wing operative who was killed; the baby is holding a rifle (Palinfo Twitter account, May 24, 2021).
Overview
- Operation Guardian of the Walls: Since a ceasefire was declared on May 21, 2021, there has been a tense calm in the Gaza Strip, where so far the Palestinian terrorist organizations have honored it. However, the Hamas leadership threatened that the time allotted for establishing a long-term ceasefire is about to expire and Israel has yet to commit itself to its conditions. A lack of progress, according to the Hamas leadership, will lead to a renewal of hostilities. In the meantime, the international community has been examining ways to rebuild the Gaza Strip. The intention is apparently to send funds through the Palestinian Authority (PA), a plan which has already been opposed by Hamas. On May 25, 2021, American Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in the Middle East to promote the ceasefire and advance assistance for the Gaza Strip.
- Judea and Samaria: Despite the ceasefire, the tension in Judea, Samaria and east Jerusalem has not eased. On May 24, 2021 a Palestinian terrorist carried out a stabbing attack at a light railway station, wounding an IDF soldier and a civilian. The renewed entrance of Jews into the Temple Mount compound on May 23, 2021, enraged the Palestinians. Palestinian spokesmen called for intervention from the American administration to stop “Israel’s provocations and escalation,” and warned of a renewal of hostilities.
- The Gaza Strip: After the crossings between Israel and the Gaza Strip were closed during Operation Guardian of the Walls, as of May 25, 2021, Israel allowed the delivery of humanitarian assistance to the Gaza Strip through the Kerem Shalom Crossing and the exit of Gazans seeking medical care through the Erez Crossing. The fishing zone off the Gaza coast was reopened to a distance of six nautical miles. Convoys of supplies began entering the Gaza Strip through the Rafah Crossing. According to the UNRWA representative in the Gaza Strip, there is no lack of food or humanitarian equipment. Meanwhile, Hamas has been constructing its victory narrative with rallies and public events, with the participation of members of the leadership, where speeches were made directly threatening Israel.
- Covid-19: Active cases continue declining in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip.
Pakistan and the Palestinian Authority submitted a resolution on the creation of a fact-finding mission that will be voted on Thursday when the UNHRC holds a special session on the matter in Geneva.
By TOVAH LAZAROFF – JERUSALEM POST – MAY 26, 2021 09:09 – The United Nations Human Rights Council is expected to establish a commission of inquiry into Israeli actions against Palestinians doing the period leading up to and including the 11-day Gaza War that ended on May 21.
In particular, the committee would investigate Israeli activity in Gaza and Jerusalem as well as the ethnic riots that broke out in mixed cities within sovereign Israel.
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Operation Guardian of the Walls: Over, but Not Done With – The rocket fire has stopped, but the campaign against Hamas in the Gaza Strip is not over, and now moves to the political level. What should Israel do to leverage the gains of the operation to weaken Hamas and preserve the quiet in the south, and how should it act if the terror organization decides to violate the ceasefire?
Udi Dekel – Special Publication, May 26, 2021 – ISRAEL INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY AND STRATEGIC STUDIES
Operation Guardian of the Walls was another round in the asymmetric conflict between Israel and Hamas. This asymmetry also applies to the operation’s goals. While Hamas’s objectives were political and cognitive, Israel’s objectives were military.
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| At the World Health Organization’s (WHO) main annual meeting, U.S. representatives called for (AFP) a new robust, expert-led inquiry into the origins of COVID-19, while a Chinese delegate said Beijing considered (WSJ) a WHO-led probe in China earlier this year to be complete and that further investigations should focus elsewhere.
The WHO report released in March said it was “extremely unlikely” that the virus originated in a lab. But researchers had limited access to data in China, and WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus later said further investigation (FT) was needed. Australia, Japan, and Portugal were among other countries that called for additional research. On Sunday, the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. intelligence services found that three staff members at a lab in Wuhan, the Chinese city where the virus was first reported, were hospitalized with COVID-19-like symptoms in November 2019. The WHO probe found (CNN) that no lab workers had tested positive for the virus.
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Während ihrer gemeinsamen Pressekonferenz in Jerusalem sagte der israelische Ministerpräsident Benjamin Netanjahu, er habe die iranische Bedrohung mit US-Außenminister Antony Blinken besprochen und äußerte die Hoffnung, dass die Vereinigten Staaten “nicht zum alten JCPOA zurückkehren werden”.
VON ISRAEL KASNETT – Ministerpräsident Benjamin Netanjahu trifft am 25. Mai 2021 im Büro des Premierministers in Jerusalem mit US-Außenminister Anthony Blinken zusammen. JEWISH NEWS SYNDICATE
(25. Mai 2021 / JNS) In einer Pressekonferenz am Dienstagabend in Jerusalem erläuterte US-Außenminister Antony Blinken die Haltung der Biden-Administration zum Iran und zum Atomabkommen – dem Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, kurz JCPOA.
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During their joint press conference in Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had discussed the Iranian threat with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and expressed hope that the United States “will not go back to the old JCPOA.”
BY ISRAEL KASNETT jewish news syndicate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem, on May 25, 2021.
(May 25, 2021 / JNS) In a press conference in Jerusalem on Tuesday evening, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken clarified the Biden administration’s stance on Iran and the nuclear deal—the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. While he reaffirmed the current administration’s commitment to fixing some of the holes with a “longer and stronger” deal, and with a focus on Iran’s “support for terrorism” and “destabilizing proxy groups throughout the region,” he made it clear, like he already did earlier this week in an interview on CNN, that the United States intends to return to the original deal, which Israel has strongly opposed.
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- Von Jochen Stahnke, Gaza FAZ – 26.05.2021- Nach elf Tagen Krieg mit Israel schweigen die Waffen wieder. Im Gazastreifen wurden mehr als 250 Menschen getötet. Der Konflikt spaltet die Palästinenser, viele wollen sich nicht auf die Seite der Hamas stellen.
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by Omer Carmi PolicyWatch 3490 May 25, 2021
The regime is seemingly removing any obstacle that might prevent Ebrahim Raisi from winning the presidency and, perhaps, succeeding Khamenei down the road, but the risk of further eroding its internal legitimacy is high.
Iran’s presidential campaign offered up a “May surprise” this week, with the Guardian Council announcing that several prominent candidates had been disqualified from running in the June 18 vote. Although mass disqualifications are nothing new for the regime, some of the names on this year’s chopping block were unexpected: only seven of the forty candidates who met the minimum registration criteria earlier this month were ultimately approved to run, and the finalists do not include high-profile figures such as former Majlis speaker Ali Larijani, Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, or former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
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