MESOPOTAMIA NEWS Top of the Agenda : Fourth Round of Iran Nuclear Deal Talks Begins in Vienna

The fourth, and possibly final, round of talks over a potential U.S. return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal kicked off today (RFE/RL) in Vienna.

Ahead of the talks, a senior U.S. official said both countries could return to compliance (NYT) with the deal within weeks, though significant gaps remain. The Joe Biden administration has signaled that Tehran should not expect (AP) any major new concessions from Washington. President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed heavy economic sanctions on Iran, which responded by increasing its uranium enrichment. An agreement would see the United States lift sanctions in exchange for Iran returning to its prior commitments. Adding pressure to the talks is the looming expiration (Guardian) on May 21 of a separate agreement between Iran and UN nuclear inspectors.
Analysis
“The [Biden] administration will, I believe, agree to lift the most important financial and petroleum sanctions to get back to the [nuclear deal], thereby eliminating its own best leverage to get a further agreement. The remaining sanctions leverage will not be enough,” CFR’s Elliott Abrams writes.

“Many U.S. allies in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and Israel, are wary of the United States returning to an agreement that they believe provides Iran with economic benefits without sufficiently obstructing its path to a nuclear weapon. Thus, the regional tensions and the pattern of attacks and reprisals are likely to persist no matter the prospects of the agreement,” CFR’s Ray Takeyh writes.