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U.S. Intelligence: Afghan Government Could Fall Sooner Than Previously Expected
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| Afghanistan’s government could collapse as soon as six months after U.S. forces finish withdrawing from the country, according to a new assessment by the U.S. intelligence community, unnamed officials told the Wall Street Journal. As the Taliban gains territory, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani arrived in Washington ahead of a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden (TOLOnews) tomorrow.
U.S. intelligence experts previously estimated that the Afghan government could survive for as long as two years after the withdrawal, but last week shortened that timeline to between six and twelve months. Intra-Afghan peace talks that were promised in a February 2020 agreement between Washington and the Taliban have stalled, and the militant group now claims control (AFP) of at least 80 of Afghanistan’s 421 districts. Ghani and Biden are expected to discuss what U.S. support for Afghanistan will look like (DefenseOne) after the troop withdrawal is complete. Biden is also under pressure to announce a plan for the evacuation of Afghans who worked as translators for North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces during the war. |
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| Analysis |
| “Troubling but likely accurate assessment of what will result from US military withdrawal from Afghanistan. What makes it all so frustrating is that this is happening after we had arrived at a relatively low cost formula for sustaining the government there,” CFR President Richard N. Haass tweets.
“The key to the war in Afghanistan is not American soldiers but American dollars. The Biden administration should couple the withdrawal of soldiers with a long-term commitment to monetary aid which prioritizes sustainability, avoids unrealistic conditions, and shares the burden with foreign donors,” Swarthmore College’s Dominic Tierney writes for War on the Rocks. |
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