Overview
- Over the past week, there was a decrease in the intensity of ISIS’s activity in Iraq, Syria and the various provinces around the globe, after ISIS concentrated its effort on carrying out the wave of attacks known as the Raids of Attrition. On May 28, 2020, ISIS released an infographic summarizing its activity in the 10 days of the Raids of Attrition (May 14-23, 2020). According to ISIS, 228 attacks were carried out around the globe during the Raids of Attrition[1]. This is a significant increase in the scope of attacks compared to the waves of attacks that ISIS managed to carry out in 2019 (about 100 attacks were carried out in December 2019, and more than 90 in April 2019).
- Most of the attacks carried out by ISIS as part of the Rates of Attrition were in Iraq (132, about 58%), followed by Syria (51, about 22%). They are followed by provinces and countries where far fewer attacks were carried out: West Africa (15), Sinai (9), Central Africa (6), Libya (4), Somalia (3), Afghanistan (2), Pakistan (1), the Philippines (1) and India (1) (Telegram, May 28, 2020).
- An editorial published in ISIS’s Al-Naba’ weekly discusses the ISIS’s current strategic concept. The editorial states that the overall goals of jihad: defeating the “infidels” and implementing Islamic law, have not changed. However, the way to realize them has changed, in the era after the fall of the Islamic State with its territorial control. The editorial notes that in the new era, guerrilla warfare is the most effective modus operandi. In view of the enemy’s superiority in terms of scope of forces and means, guerrilla warfare means choosing the location and timing of the battle against the enemy and carrying out attacks against it by small groups. These attacks are designed to inflict severe damage on personnel and military equipment, to wear down the enemies and cause them to despair. This will enable ISIS to exercise territorial control in the future, i.e., to reestablish the Islamic State, which remains ISIS’s long-term strategic goal (Al-Naba’, May 28, 2020).
- The editorial in ISIS’s weekly is intended mainly for ISIS operatives. Its purpose is to clarify ISIS’s current strategic outlook and to raise morale after the blows dealt to ISIS with the fall of its territorial strongholds in Iraq and Syria and the killing of its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The main message in the editorial is that ISIS has not abandoned the overall goal of establishing the Islamic State, but the way to achieve it is through guerrilla warfare and wearing down the enemy until convenient circumstances arise.
The Idlib region
This week as well, the ceasefire has been maintained in the Idlib region, except for sporadic incidents, mainly exchanges of artillery fire.
Joint patrols on the M-4 highway continue
- The joint patrols of the Russian and Turkish armies continued this week. On May 28, 2020, Turkey and Russia carried out their 13th joint patrol on the M-4 highway (Aleppo-Latakia). Once again, the patrol went beyond the town of Ariha (about 10 km south of Idlib). The Turkish army reportedly deployed its forces in a wide area comprising the route of the joint patrol. In addition, aircraft (apparently Russian) flew overhead (Edlib Media Center – EMC, May 28, 2020). Closing the region by the Turkish army was intended to prevent demonstrations and incidents of residents blocking the M-4 highway, as was recently done by demonstrators. The 14th joint patrol, carried out on June 2, 2020, also proceeded without any unusual events.
Main incidents last week
- On June 2, 2020, the rebel organizations repelled a Syrian army attempt to advance about 10 km north of Maarat Nu’man (Idlib Plus, June 2, 2020).
- On June 1, 2020, the rebel organizations fired an antitank missile at a Syrian army force about 10 km north of Maarat Nu’man. Syrian soldiers and fighters were killed (Edlib Media Center – EMC, June 1, 2020).
- On May 31, 2020, the Syrian army fired artillery at targets about 10 km southwest of Jisr al-Shughur. It also fired mortar shells at targets south of Idlib (Idlib Plus Facebook page, May 30, 2020).
Senior ISIS operative killed by the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham
- On May 29, 2020, operatives of the security apparatus of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham tried to arrest Mohamad Mustafa al-Hussein, a senior ISIS operative from the village of Al-Nayrab (about 10 km southeast of Idlib). He was killed in the exchange of fire. It was reported on social media that he was cold-bloodedly murdered at home, in front of his mother and father (Twitter, May 30, 2020). The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham reported that the operative who was killed had coordinated most of ISIS’s activity in the areas around Idlib. He received operatives who fled other areas and sent them to attack operatives of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham (Ibaa, May 30, 2020).
Northeastern Syria
The intensity of ISIS’s activity in Syria decreased this week. It mainly consisted of detonating IEDs, machine gun fire at SDF vehicles moving on the roads and targeted killings.
The area of Deir ez-Zor, Al-Mayadeen, and Albukamal
- On June 1, 2020, a commune leader was shot and killed about 14 km north of Al-Mayadeen (Telegram, June 1, 2020).
- On May 30, 2020, three SDF fighters were targeted by machine gun fire about 14 km north of Al-Mayadeen. All three were killed (Telegram, May 30, 2020).
- On May 29, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle about 10 km north of Deir ez-Zor. Two fighters were killed (Telegram, May 30, 2020).
- On May 28, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle about 4 km northeast of Albukamal. Several fighters including a commander were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 30, 2020).
- On May 27, 2020, an SDF intelligence vehicle was targeted by machine gun fire on the road leading to the Al-Omar oilfield, about 10 km north of Al-Mayadeen. An SDF fighter was wounded (Telegram, May 28, 2020).
- On May 26, 2020, an IED was activated against a tanker carrying oil for the Syrian regime on the road leading to the Al-Omar oilfield, about 14 km north of Al-Mayadeen. The tanker went up in flames. It belonged to Al-Qaterji, a Syrian MP and commander in the Homeland Defense Forces (Telegram, May 26, 2020).
The Al-Raqqah area
- On May 30, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF-affiliated commune leader at his home, about 15 km north of Al-Raqqah. He was wounded and his house was damaged (Telegram, May 30, 2020).
Eastern Syria (Al-Sukhnah-Palmyra region)
- On May 28, 2020, an IED was activated against a vehicle carrying Syrian soldiers and their “agents” about 35 km north of Palmyra. Two soldiers were killed and two others were wounded (Telegram, May 30, 2020).
Southern Syria
The Daraa area
- On May 27, 2020, two Syrian soldiers were targeted by machine gun fire several dozen kilometers east of Daraa. They were both killed (Telegram, May 27, 2020).
The Iraqi arena
Highlights of ISIS’s activity during the past week
This week, the intensity of ISIS’s activity in Iraq decreased. It consisted of detonating IEDs, attacking an Iraqi army compound, firing mortar shells, sniper fire, and arson.
Diyala Province
- On May 27, 2020, an IED was activated against Tribal Mobilization fighters about 40 km northeast of Baqubah. Two fighters were wounded (Telegram, May 28, 2020).
Baghdad Province
- On May 29, 2020, an IED was activated against a Popular Mobilization vehicle about 20 km southeast of Baghdad. Four fighters were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 29, 2020).
- On May 28, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle about 20 km southeast of Baghdad. Five soldiers were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 29, 2020).
Kirkuk Province
- On May 28, 2020, five mortar shells were fired at Tribal Mobilization forces about 30 km southwest of Kirkuk. Two fighters were wounded (Telegram, May 29, 2020).
Nineveh Province
- On May 31, 2020, ISIS operatives set fire to a tractor and a wheat field of a Tribal Mobilization fighter about 40 km south of Mosul (Telegram, May 31, 2020).
Babel Province
- On May 26, 2020, two Iraqi soldiers were targeted by sniper fire about 20 km southwest of Baghdad. One soldier was killed and the other was wounded (Telegram, May 28, 2020).
Al-Anbar Province
- On May 31, 2020, an IED was activated against a Tribal Mobilization vehicle about 35 km northeast of Fallujah. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, June 1, 2020).
- On May 31, 2020, mortar shells were fired at two Iraqi army compounds in Al-Rutba. Two soldiers were wounded (Telegram, June 1, 2020).
- On May 30, 2020, an Iraqi army compound was targeted by machine gun fire about 20 km southeast of Fallujah. Two soldiers were killed and two others were wounded (Telegram, June 1, 2020).
- On May 30, 2020, an RPG rocket was fired at an Iraqi army compound southeast of Hit. One soldier was wounded (Telegram, May 31, 2020).
- On May 30, 2020, ISIS operatives attacked an Iraqi army compound near the town of Rawa. Five soldiers were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 30, 2020).
Counterterrorist activities by the Iraqi security forces
Salah al-Din Province
- On May 31, 2020, the Samarra Operations Headquarters announced that 12 wanted operatives and suspected ISIS operatives had been apprehended in a large-scale operation of the Iraqi army and police. In addition, seven ISIS guest houses were located and destroyed and 23 IEDs were neutralized (Al-Sumaria, May 31, 2020).
Nineveh Province
- On June 1, 2020, a Popular Mobilization force captured two ISIS commanders about 10 km northwest of Mosul. One of the commanders was in charge of ISIS’s bombing activity in the Nineveh Province (al-hashed.net, June 1, 2020).
Al-Anbar Province
- On May 31, 2020, an Iraqi police force captured four ISIS operatives in the Fallujah district, about 45 km west of Baghdad (Al-Sumaria, May 31, 2020).
Al-Basra Province
- On May 31, 2020, intelligence forces of the Iraqi Interior Ministry exposed an ISIS sleeper cell in the Al-Basra Province and detained two of its operatives. This thwarted several attacks which were supposed to take place in other provinces, including Baghdad and the Kurdistan region (Al-Sumaria, May 31, 2020).
Babel Province
- On May 31, 2020, an Iraqi army commando force operating about 40 km southwest of Baghdad located an ISIS guest house. A total of 13 IEDs, weapons, explosives and military equipment were found (Facebook page of the Iraqi Defense Ministry, May 31, 2020).
