MESOPOTAMIA NEWS INTEL BY MEIR AMIT INTELLIGENCE & TERRORISM INFORMATION CENTER / ISRAEL – Spotlight on Global Jihad (February 13-19, 2020)

Highlights of the events

• This week, the Syrian army’s campaign for the takeover of Idlib, with Russian air support and political backing, centered on the western neighborhoods of Aleppo and the rural areas west and northwest of the city. The Syrian army took over dozens of villages in these areas, with no significant resistance on the part of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and the other rebel organizations. Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham Commander Abu Mohammad al-Julani gave an interview blaming the command of the rebel organizations and the lack of coordination between them. However, he promised that the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and its allies would return and liberate the areas taken over by the Syrian army.
• Because of the fighting, hundreds of thousands of displaced persons continue to flee the battle zones, mainly to areas near the Turkish border. This week, nearly 150,000 displaced persons reportedly fled. According to UN reports, since December 1, 2019, about 900,000 residents have fled, mostly women and children, who are forced to sleep in the open in freezing temperatures since the camps are completely full.
• Turkish President Erdoğan and other senior Turkish officials continue to threaten to exert force against the Syrian army if it does not withdraw to the area where it was deployed at the time of the Sochi Conference (2018) by the end of February 2020. At the diplomatic level, although the Syrian army is continuing its advance, and despite the heated rhetoric of the Turkish President, diplomatic talks between Russia and Turkey continue, with the goal of reaching an agreement. Up to now, the talks have not had any real results on the ground.
• This week, ISIS continued its intensive activity in the Euphrates Valley and other areas in Syria. On the other hand, in Iraq, ISIS carried out relatively low-intensity activity. Noteworthy activity by ISIS in provinces outside the “core countries” included the killing of a senior Egyptian army officer (a brigadier general) by an IED west of Al-Arish. This was an important achievement for ISIS’s Sinai Province in its campaign against Egypt’s security forces. In Afghanistan, ISIS’s Khorasan Province claimed responsibility for an attack against the Taliban in the Kunar Province (north of the Nangarhar Province). This was after several months of inactivity due to the severe blow dealt to ISIS in the Nangarhar Province (southwest of Kabul).

Idlib region

Overview

This week, Syrian army forces, with Russian air support, continued their attacks in the Idlib and Aleppo regions, focusing on Aleppo’s western neighborhoods and the rural areas west and northwest of the city. During the week, the regime forces took over Aleppo’s western neighborhoods and the rural areas west and northwest of the city. The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and the other rebel forces retreated, in most cases without significant resistance. Because of the fighting, this week as well, residents continued to flee en masse. The UN Under-Secretary for Humanitarian Affairs noted that since December 1, 2019, about 900,000 residents had been displaced from their homes, mostly women and children, who were forced to sleep in the open under harsh conditions, because the displaced persons camps are full.

Areas in the Idlib region taken over by the Syrian army (February 16, 2020)

Areas in the Idlib region taken over by the Syrian army (February 17, 2020)

Aleppo front

• During the week, the Syrian army took over Aleppo’s western neighborhoods, including Jam’iyyat al-Zahra. The army also took over dozens of towns and villages in the area west and northwest of the city. During their advance, the Syrian forces encountered several instances where forces of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and the other rebel organizations showed resistance. However, it seems that in most places, the rebel organizations retreated without significant fighting. The Syrian regime claims that in towns and villages which were taken over, Syrian soldiers were warmly welcomed by the local population (SANA, February 16, 2020).
• On February 17, 2020, the Syrian army continued to advance. It took over additional villages west and northwest of Aleppo, including the village of Anjara, about 10 km west of Aleppo (Khotwa, February 17, 2020). One of the local media outlets reported that a day earlier, on February 16, 2020, missiles carrying cluster bombs were launched from Russian warships [in the Middle East] at the village of Anjara (Edlib Media Center – EMC, February 16, 2020). The report was still not confirmed.

Syrian helicopter shot down by a Turkish-sponsored rebel organization

• On February 14, 2020, operatives of the National Liberation Front, a Turkish-sponsored rebel organization, shot down a Syrian army helicopter west of Aleppo. According to the organization, the helicopter was shot down “in response to the use of helicopters and fighter jets by the Syrian army against local residents” (Twitter account of the National Liberation Front, @alwataniaTahrer, February 14, 2020). The Syrian army reported that its helicopter had been shot down by a “hostile missile” and that two bodies had been found, apparently of the helicopter crew (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, February 15, 2020).

Diplomatic talks between Russia and Turkey, along with Turkish threats

• Concurrently with the advance of the Syrian army, and in spite of the heated rhetoric of the Turkish president, diplomatic negotiations between Russia and Turkey continued this week as well. A Turkish delegation arrived in Moscow and held talks with the Russians for two days (Anadolu, February 18, 2020). At this stage, the talks in Ankara and Moscow did not produce any practical results, as the Syrian army continues to advance and establish facts on the ground.
• Publicly, Turkey threatened to exert military force if the Syrian army did not withdraw to the borders agreed upon in the Sochi Conference (2018)^[1] by the end of February 2020. According to the Turkish foreign minister, Turkey wishes to solve the Idlib problem through diplomatic channels. However, if this cannot be achieved, Turkey will resort to “necessary steps.” Turkish President Erdoğan threatened that Turkey would hit the Syrian army anywhere if another Turkish soldier was hurt (Reuters; Sputnik, February 15, 2020). At the same time, it was reported that an additional Turkish force, which included about 70 tanks, armored vehicles and rocket launchers, had entered Syria and made its way deep into the Idlib region (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, February 18, 2020).

Interview with the commander of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham

On February 16, 2020, an interview with Abu Mohammad al-Julani was published. Al-Julani, the commander of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, plays a central role in fighting against the Syrian army. His interview, which sounds apologetic, is intended to explain why the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham did not show significant resistance during the campaign against the Syrian army in the Idlib region, and raise the morale of his organization’s operatives. Al-Julani notes that the rebel organizations operating in the Idlib region required better coordination and command to guide their moves on the ground. According to Al-Julani, the reconciliation talks in Astana and Sochi were “deception and lies” solely intended to stop the fighting in the region and enable the Syrian forces to operate in the Idlib region with artillery and fighter jets.

     
Abu Mohammad al-Julani (right), commander of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, during the interview (Insight Media Facebook, February 16, 2020)

• However, Abu Mohammad al-Julani claims that the rebel organizations showed resoluteness. It was reflected in over 30 battles, in an attempt to hit the Syrian regime’s elite forces, which are supported by the Russians. Al-Julani admits that the Syrian army has managed to advance significantly. However, he adds, the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham regrouped properly, along with the other rebel organizations. According to him, the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and the other organizations will work to liberate the areas [taken over by the Syrian army] one after the other (“the Syrian regime’s quick advance will lead to a quick withdrawal”) (Insight Media Facebook page, affiliated with the rebel organizations, February 16, 2020).

Residents flee en masse from the battle zones

• On February 14, 2020, the office of the UN secretary-general’s spokesperson stated that 143,000 new displaced persons had left their homes in the Idlib region over the past few days (February 12-14, 2020) (UN website, meetings and press releases, February 14, 2020).
• On February 17, 2020, UN Under-Secretary for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Mark Lowcock announced that the crisis in northwestern Syria had reached a new grave stage. He noted that since December 1, 2019^[2], about 900,000 residents, mostly women and children, were displaced from their homes. The displaced persons are forced to sleep in the open in freezing temperatures since the camps are completely full. According to Lowcock, babies and small children freeze to death and there is genuine concern over the possible outbreak of diseases (OCHA – the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, February 17, 2020).

The Euphrates Valley

This week as well, ISIS’s intensive activity continued throughout Syria, mainly in the Euphrates Valley. Following are details of the attacks by region, according to ISIS’s claims of responsibility.

Al-Raqqah area

• On February 16, 2020, an IED planted by ISIS in an SDF gas station about 3 km south of Al-Raqqah was activated. The station was damaged (Telegram, February 16, 2020).
• On February 16, 2020, ISIS operatives attacked a liquor store in Al-Rasafah, 40 km southwest of Al-Raqqah. The ISIS operatives exchanged fire with the Syrian army. Five soldiers were killed and several others were wounded. In addition, fire Syrian army trucks were set on fire and weapons and ammunition were seized (Telegram, February 16, 2020).

The area of Al-Mayadeen and Albukamal

• On February 18, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle 14 km north of Al-Mayadeen. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, February 18, 2020).
• On February 17, 2020, an SDF fighter was shot at and wounded about 10 km east of Deir ez-Zor (Telegram, February 17, 2020).
• On February 16, 2020, an International Coalition “agent” was shot at and killed about 30 km north of Al-Mayadeen (Telegram, February 16, 2020).
• On February 15, 2020, a rocket was fired at an SDF vehicle in Al-Hawaij, 4 km northeast of Al-Mayadeen. Two SDF fighters were killed and another was wounded (Telegram, February 15, 2020).
• On February 14, 2020, an SDF fighter was targeted by gunfire in Diban, 5 km east of Al-Mayadeen. The fighter was killed (Telegram, February 14, 2020). In addition, an SDF vehicle was targeted by machine gun fire. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, February 14, 2020).
• On February 14, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle in Al-Tiyanah, 10 km southeast of Al-Mayadeen. Five passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, February 14, 2020).
• On February 14, 2020, several IEDs planted in an SDF command post in Al-Hawaij, 4 km northeast of Al-Mayadeen, were activated. The command post was destroyed (Telegram, February 15, 2020).
• On February 10, 2020, an SDF vehicle was targeted by machine gun fire on the road leading to the Al-Omar oil field, about 20 km northeast of Al-Mayadeen. The passengers were wounded (Telegram, February 12, 2020).
• On February 10, 2020, an SDF fighter was taken prisoner about 30 km northwest of Deir ez-Zor. He was interrogated and then executed (Telegram, February 12, 2020).

The Iraqi arena

ISIS activity

Summary of ISIS’s activity in Iraq over the past two and a half years

• ISIS’s Al-Naba’ weekly published an infographic entitled “War of Attrition,” summing up about two and a half years of ISIS’s activity throughout Iraq (from September 21, 2017 to February 13, 2020). According to the infographic, 3,196 attacks were carried out in Iraq during this period, in which over 10,600 people were killed and wounded. Those killed included 396 Iraqi army officers and commanders.
• Most of the attacks took the form of activating IEDs (1,727 attacks). Additional attacks included: sniper fire (450); raids and confrontations (414); targeted killings (170); suicide bombing attacks or attacks carried out by assaulting terrorists (96); and other types of attacks (197). According to the infographic, the center of activity was the Diyala Province, where 780 attacks were carried out, resulting in 1,744 casualties. This was followed by the Kirkuk Province, where 727 attacks were carried out, resulting in 1,968 casualties (Telegram, February 13, 2020).

ISIS activity during the past week

• This week, ISIS’s activity throughout Iraq was on a relatively low scale. Most of the activity was in the Diyala Province.

Diyala Province

• On February 17, 2020, an Iraqi army camp about 80 km northeast of Baqubah was targeted by sniper fire. One soldier was killed and another was wounded (Telegram, February 18, 2020).
• On February 15, 2020, ISIS operatives attacked an Iraqi police checkpoint southeast of Baqubah. Two policemen were killed (Akhbar al-Iraq, February 15, 2020).
• On February 14, 2020, ISIS operatives took a Popular Mobilization fighter prisoner about 100 km northeast of Baqubah. He was executed. A Shiite was taken prisoner in the same place and was also executed (Telegram, February 14, 2020).
• On February 14, 2020, an Iraqi police camp about 5 km south of Baqubah was targeted by sniper fire. Three policemen were killed (Telegram, February 15, 2020).
• On February 12, 2020, a member of the Kaka’i community (an ancient monotheistic community whose believers are concentrated in northern Iraq and are mainly Kurds) was targeted by sniper fire. The shots were fired from west of Khanaqin, about 100 km northeast of Baqubah. He was killed and his vehicle was set on fire. When a force arrived to provide assistance, it was targeted by machine gun and sniper fire. At least 10 of them were killed or wounded (Telegram, February 13, 2020).
• On February 12, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle west of Khanaqin, about 100 km northeast of Baqubah. Two soldiers were wounded (Telegram, February 13, 2020).

Kirkuk Province

• On February 16, 2020, ISIS operatives attacked a police station south of Kirkuk. One policeman was killed (Telegram, February 17, 2020).
• On February 14, 2020, two Grad rockets were launched at a group of Shiites in the area of Amerli, about 150 km north of Baghdad (Telegram, February 16, 2020).
• On February 11, 2020, three mortar shells were fired at the Iraqi police headquarters south of Daquq, about 30 km south of Kirkuk (Telegram, February 12, 2020). In addition, five mortar shells were fired at a Shiite neighborhood (Telegram, February 12, 2020).

Salah al-Din Province

• On February 16, 2020, ISIS operatives planted IEDs at the home of a National Security Service “agent” about 30 km north of Baghdad. The house was destroyed (Telegram, February 16, 2020).

Al-Anbar Province

• On February 17, 2020, a National Security Service “agent” was targeted by machine gun fire southeast of Al-Fawjah, 50 km west of Baghdad. The “agent” was killed (Telegram, February 18, 2020).

Counterterrorist activities by the Iraqi security forces

• This week as well, the Iraqi security forces continued to carry out counterterrorist activities in the various provinces. Following are highlights of the activity, by province.

Diyala Province

• On February 15, 2020, an Iraqi counterterrorism force landed by helicopter carried out an operation against a group of ISIS operatives in an area about 60 km northeast of Baqubah. A total of 10 ISIS operatives were killed. In addition, two weapons depots were destroyed and three explosive belts were seized (Al-Sumaria, February 15, 2020). Nearby, Popular Mobilization and Iraqi army forces located ISIS “guesthouses” containing IEDs and explosives (al-hashed.net, February 15, 2020).

Al-Anbar Province

• On February 16, 2020, Iraqi counterterrorism forces apprehended three “terrorist operatives” [implicitly ISIS operatives] in the Al-Baghdadi region, about 10 km southeast of Kirkuk (SecMedCell Facebook page, which belongs to the Iraqi Prime Minister’s Office, February 16, 2020).

Nineveh Province

• On February 17, 2020, Iraqi Military Intelligence teams apprehended three “terrorist operatives” [implicitly ISIS operatives] about 15 km south of Mosul (Al-Sumaria, February 17, 2020).
• On February 16, 2020, Nineveh Province police apprehended seven ISIS operatives who had held positions at institutions of the Islamic State at the time when Mosul was controlled by ISIS (Al-Sumaria, February 16, 2020).
• On February 15, 2020, Iraqi security forces apprehended an ISIS operative in western Mosul, who had held a position at the time when Mosul was controlled by ISIS (Al-Sumaria, February 15, 2020).

Salah al-Din Province

• On February 16, 2020, a Popular Mobilization force located and destroyed ISIS “guesthouses.” They also seized depots containing equipment and IEDs about 140 km north of Baghdad (al-hashed.net, February 16, 2020).