Main events of the week
- In the Idlib region, exchanges of artillery fire continued between the Syrian army and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), albeit at a somewhat lower intensity. An American UAV carried out an airstrike near the city of Idlib, killing two senior commanders of the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Guardians of Religion Organization.
- In Iraq, Syria and the Sinai Peninsula, ISIS has continued its routine activity. Noteworthy attacks this week in ISIS’s provinces in Central and West Africa:
- In northwestern Nigeria (Borno State), ISIS’s attacks continued, with the Nigerian army sustaining many casualties (dozens killed and wounded). Among the ISIS’s provinces in Asia and Africa, Nigeria is the leading country in terms of the number of casualties.
- In Tanzania, ISIS operatives attacked an army base in the southeast of the country for the first time. This is apparently a spillover of ISIS’s activity from northeastern Mozambique, where ISIS has established its presence.
- In the Democratic Republic of Congo, ISIS claimed responsibility for breaking into the central prison in the northeast of the country, a region where the organization is active. More than 1,300 prisoners reportedly escaped.
- ISIS Spokesman Abu Hamza al-Qurashi released an audiotape in which he calls, inter alia, for the overthrow of the “tyrannical” Arab rulers, against the backdrop of the normalization agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The spokesman calls on ISIS operatives and supporters in Saudi Arabia to attack Western citizens and the country’s economic infrastructure (setting fire to oil pipelines, damaging factories). The spokesman praises ISIS operatives in Africa, calling on them to overthrow local regimes and harm Western interests (especially those of France).
- On October 16, 2020, a young Chechen beheaded a history teacher in a suburb near Paris after he had shown his students cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad, previously published by the satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo, during a discussion with his students about freedom of expression. French President Emanuel Macron, who arrived at the scene of the attack, called the murder an “Islamic terrorist attack.” This is unusual rhetoric that reflects the intensity of the shock of the French in the face of the murder, which was perceived as a violation of education and freedom of expression. At this stage, there is no evidence that ISIS or Al-Qaeda were involved in the attack, although ISIS has identified with it at the ideological level.
ISIS’s activity around the world
ISIS’s activity in the various provinces (October 8-14, 2020)
- On October 15, 2020, ISIS’s Al-Naba’ weekly published an infographic entitled “The Harvest of the Fighters,” summarizing ISIS’s activity on October 8-14, 2020. According to the infographic, during this period ISIS carried out 30 attacks around the world, compared to 37 in the previous week (i.e., a decrease of about 19% in the number of the attacks). The largest number of attacks was carried out in Syria (13), compared to a decrease in the number of attacks in Iraq (8). Attacks were also carried out in ISIS’s other provinces: West Africa (6) and the Sinai Peninsula (3) (Al-Naba’ weekly, Telegram, October 15, 2020).
- According to the infographic, a total of over 69 people were killed and wounded in these attacks, compared to 54 in the previous week (i.e., an increase of about 27% in the number of casualties). The largest number of casualties (32) was in West Africa. The other casualties were in Syria (18); Iraq (14); and the Sinai Peninsula (5) (Telegram, October 15, 2020).
ISIS’s financial resources
Overview
- Laurie Mylroie, a renowned US terrorism researcher, wrote an article following up on a recent Wall Street Journal report about ISIS’s financial resources (September 18, 2020)[1]. According to Mylroie, despite its recent setbacks, including the loss of its territory, ISIS remains flush with cash. According to her, American and Western and other official security sources, such as the Kurdistan Regional Government, point out that despite its setbacks, ISIS continues to hold many financial reserves. According to these sources, ISIS has at its disposal large financial reserves and a range of revenue streams, which could finance dangerous terrorist attacks.
Types of ISIS financial sources
- The US Department of the Treasury estimates that ISIS commands some $300 million. The United Nations estimate is less, although still a considerable sum: around $100 million. The following are examples of ISIS’s financial resources:
- Investments in legitimate businesses: Documents captured by the Coalition after ISIS’s territorial defeat reveal that it had been investing hundreds of millions of dollars into legitimate businesses, including hotels and other real estate.
- Profits of the Al-Rawi network: This is a network of people and businesses hailing from the Sunni Iraqi border town of Rawa, near the border with Syria. The network, also known as the Golden Chain (Selselat al-Thahab), moves money out of areas in Eastern Syria once controlled by ISIS to Dubai and through Turkey[2].
- Exploiting the COVID-19 pandemic to make profits: According to another article by Mylroie, the pandemic has become a financial resource. An ISIS supporter in Turkey named Murat Cakar was accused of making money from online sales of masks and other personal protection equipment[3]. The supporter’s profits were mainly in virtual currency.
Screenshot of one of Murat Cakar’s Facebook sales pages
(Facebook, March 20, 2020)
- Ransom: ISIS also gains money by abducting individuals and charging tens of thousands of dollars in ransom. The amount of ransom can reach as high as $70,000.
- Tobacco smuggling: The Army of Islam (Lashkar-e-Islam) is an important ISIS ally in Pakistan active in Khyber, Peshawar Province. The organization is heavily involved in tobacco smuggling. Profits from this occupation are estimated at several million dollars a year[4].
The Syrian arena
The Idlib region
In the Idlib region, exchanges of artillery fire continued between the Syrian army and the rebel organizations east and southwest of Idlib. In addition, Russian aircraft reportedly carried out airstrikes west of Idlib (near the Syrian-Turkish border). Two civilians were killed in these attacks and 15 were wounded (Edlib Media Center, October 14, 2020).
US targeted killing of Al-Qaeda-affiliated commanders
- According to a spokesperson for the US CENTCOM, on October 15, 2020, an American UAV carried out an airstrike near Idlib. In this attack, two senior commanders of the Al-Qaeda branch in Syria were killed (Fox News, October 16, 2020). Syrian media outlets reported that the attack had targeted two operatives of the Guardians of Religion Organization who were riding in a vehicle near Idlib. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the two people killed were Abu Dharr al-Masri and Abu Yusuf al-Maghrebi, two commanders in the Guardians of Religion Organization (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, October 17, 2020).
- Following are details about the two commanders who were killed in the attack:
- Abu Dharr al-Masri: Member of the Shura Council of the Guardians of Religion Organization (Akhbar al-Aan 24 YouTube channel, October 16, 2020). Formerly in charge of Islamic law in the Guardians of Religion Organization. Before that, he was the organization’s supervisor of an institute of Islamic religious law (ma’had shar’i) for children.
- Abu Yusuf al-Maghrebi: former commander in Al-Qaeda. Joined the Guardians of Religion Organization, where he was in charge of general security (Akhbar al-Aan 24 YouTube channel, October 16, 2020).
ISIS’s activity in the Syria Province[5]
The region of Deir ez-Zor and Al-Mayadeen
- On October 19, 2020, an SDF intelligence operative was targeted by machine gun fire about 14 km north of Al-Mayadeen. He was killed.
- On October 19, 2020, ISIS operatives planted an IED about 20 km north of Al-Mayadeen. The IED was activated while an SDF fighter was trying to neutralize it. The fighter was wounded.
The Aleppo region
- On October 16, 2020, ISIS operatives planted an IED at a checkpoint of the Turkish-sponsored rebel organizations 40 km north of Aleppo (about 11 km south of the Syrian-Turkish border). Several fighters were wounded.
The Iraqi arena
Provinces of Iraq (Wikipedia)
Agreement to return ISIS-affiliated families to their homes west of Mosul
- On October 14, 2020, an agreement was signed in Mosul for the voluntary return of 1,100 families of ISIS operatives to their homes in Mahalabiyah, about 35 km west of Mosul. These families left their place of residence and moved to regions formerly controlled by ISIS. The agreement was signed under the auspices of the governor of the Nineveh Province and with the support of the UN Development Program (UNDP) in Iraq. It should be noted that local residents have so far opposed the return of the families of ISIS operatives to the region (reliefweb.int, October 14, 2020).
ISIS attacks in the various provinces[6]
Diyala Province
- On October 20, 2020, an IED was activated against a Tribal Mobilization fighter about 15 km northeast of Baqubah. He was killed.
- On October 16, 2020, an IED was activated against a Tribal Mobilization fighter about 80 km northeast of Baqubah. He was wounded.
- On October 16, 2020, ISIS operatives planted an IED in the house of a Tribal Mobilization fighter about 60 km north of Baqubah. The house was destroyed.
- On October 15, 2020, ISIS operatives planted IEDs at three houses of a Tribal Mobilization commander about 60 km north of Baqubah. The three houses were destroyed.
- On October 15, 2020, an IED was activated against Shiite civilians about 20 km northeast of Baqubah. One Shiite civilian was killed.
- On October 15, 2020, an IED was activated against a Shiite civilian northeast of Baqubah. He was wounded.
- On October 13, 2020, a Tribal Mobilization fighter was targeted by sniper fire about 40 km northeast of Baqubah. He was killed.
Salah al-Din Province
- On October 16, 2020, a Popular Mobilization compound was targeted by machine gun fire about 60 km north of Baghdad. Four Popular Mobilization fighters were killed.
- On October 14, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle about 30 km north of Baghdad. The passengers, including an officer, were killed or wounded.
Al-Anbar Province
- On October 18, 2020, the houses of two members of the Iraqi National Security were targeted by machine gun fire about 20 km west of Baghdad. One was killed and two others were wounded.
- October 12, 2020, an Iraqi Military Intelligence soldier was targeted by machine gun fire west of Ramadi, about 90 km west of Baghdad. He was killed.
Kirkuk Province
- On October 18, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi police foot patrol about 50 km southwest of Kirkuk. A police officer with the rank of major was killed. He had been a commander of a foj (a military framework similar to a battalion).
Counterterrorism activities by the Iraqi security forces
Al-Anbar Province
- On October 16, 2020, teams of the Military Intelligence Directorate located an ISIS weapons depot about 30 km southeast of Fallujah. They found explosives, including IEDs that looked like flat tin boxes (Facebook page of the Iraqi Defense Ministry, October 16, 2020).
Operatives of the Iraqi Military Intelligence near the IEDs found in the weapons depot
(Facebook page of the Iraqi Defense Ministry, October 16, 2020)
Nineveh Province
- On October 18, 2020, teams of the Nineveh Intelligence Directorate captured eight wanted ISIS operatives in various regions in the province. The detainees admitted having been involved in carrying out attacks while the Nineveh Province was under ISIS’s control (Al-Sumaria, October 18, 2020).
- On October 17, 2020, the Iraqi Air Force carried out airstrikes about 70 km south of Mosul. Several ISIS operatives were killed and several hiding places were destroyed (SecMedCell Facebook page affiliated with the Iraqi Prime minister’s Office, October 17, 2020).
- On October 16, 2020, an Iraqi army force captured several families of ISIS operatives infiltrating from Syria, near the Sinjar area. A total of 14 women and children were captured (Facebook page of the Iraqi Defense Ministry, October 16, 2020).
Baghdad
- On October 17, 2020, teams of the Iraqi police captured four ISIS operatives who had been involved in carrying out attacks in the Al-Furat Province when it was under ISIS’s control (Al-Sumaria, October 17, 2020).
Kirkuk Province
- On October 16, 2020, a special force of the Counterterrorism Unit deployed from helicopters broke into a tunnel where an ISIS commander was hiding, about 30 km south of Kirkuk. The commander, who was wearing an explosive belt, was killed (Al-Sumaria, October 17, 2020).