| Hamas prepared the rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip in advance, including toward Jerusalem, in order to connect the Gaza Strip to al-Aqsa (the Temple Mount). As Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh clarified: “The equation that connects the Gaza Strip with Jerusalem is strong.” The fire toward Israel’s capital specifically on Israel’s Jerusalem Day was intended to create a new equation that would present Hamas as “the defender of al-Aqsa.”
Hamas’s achievements are: defining the rules of the game against Israel – placing an ultimatum and realizing the threat, especially with the opening assault on Jerusalem and the rocket salvos targeting central Israel; positioning itself as the defender of al-Aqsa and Jerusalem; inciting and igniting violence by young Arab citizens of Israel in mixed cities in Israel; scoring points in Palestinian public opinion in relation to its status vis-à-vis the Palestinian Authority, in particular against the background of the cancellation of the elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council; highlighting Hamas’s leadership of the Palestinian national movement in the face of the weakness and helplessness of the Palestinian Authority, which cooperates with Israel; preventing Israel’s annual Flag Parade on Jerusalem Day through the Damascus Gate and the ascent of Jews to the Temple Mount; driving a wedge in the process by the Israeli Islamic party Ra’am to help form an Israeli government; initiating a wave of condemnation of Israel in the Arab world and the international community.
Hamas’s assessment of the situation and its calculations regarding the consequences of its aggressive activities are based on two intertwined assumptions: one, that Israel’s response to rocket launches will be measured and “proportionate,” i.e., relatively moderate, in part due to its current political instability; two, that Israel prefers a limited number of days of combat (the concept of “battle days,” a common term in the security establishment), which would be followed by calm.
Therefore, Israel must shatter the validity of these assumptions, which drive Hamas’s policies and activities. First and foremost, the current round of escalation illustrates the problematic nature of the current dealings with Hamas – the transfer of money from Qatar, which along with allowing relief for residents of the Gaza Strip enables Hamas to strengthen its control and terror-military power and conduct defiant policies, while weakening the Palestinian Authority, inter alia, by undermining its status as a partner for a deal with Israel.
Especially in light of the current round of escalation, Israel must respond strongly to Hamas and its infrastructure in the Gaza Strip, and to make it clear that it will not allow the organization to set the rules of the game – even if a powerful attack forces Hamas to continue firing rockets, including to central Israel, which would inevitably prolong the duration of the campaign. In order to separate the fighting in Hamas from what is happening in Jerusalem, the religious-Islamic fervor in the capital in general must be reduced, and in particular toward the end of Ramadan and the days of Eid al-Fitr. In this context, action must be taken to reduce the friction between the Israeli police and young Arabs in Israeli cities. The leadership of the Arab public in Israel must be mobilized to calm and restrain the extremists. At the same time, extremist Jewish elements must be neutralized, those who support “price tag” attacks and those who seek friction in order to set the area on fire. The West Bank must be kept out of the escalation cycle through security coordination with the Palestinian Authority and through the granting of permits – relief ahead of the holiday.
Hamas’s brazenness and our inability to understand its rationale illustrate why Israel should strive for a stable long term settlement in Gaza that is not based on blackmail and actual strengthening of Hamas, but on strengthening the Palestinian Authority. In Gaza, dependence on Qatari money has been shown not to be a stable long-term solution. It is better to find other tools to restrain Hamas and allow normal life for the population of Gaza Strip. |