MESOPOTAMIA NEWS : AFTER THE STRIKE – WILL HAMAS RECOVER ? – INSS – The Institute for National Security Studies / TEL AVIV – ISRAEL  20 May 2021

The Israeli Strike on Hamas: Results and Significance

INSS senior researcher Dr. Kobi Michael writes:

Israel found itself embroiled in a campaign that it did not want at this time, although it had prepared for it in advance in an impressive and thorough manner. In recent years, intelligence, technological, and operational capabilities have been developed throughout the Israeli security establishment – the IDF, the ISA (Shin Bet), and the defense industries – and these enabled very serious damage to Hamas’s military infrastructures. Special emphasis was placed on the organization’s underground arrays, built by Hamas based on the lessons from Operation Protective Edge as a strategic capability, enabling offensive force against Israeli cities at long and close ranges, and defensive capabilities in case of ground entry by IDF forces into the Gaza Strip. Furthermore, the organization has invested enormous efforts in the development of aerial capabilities (drones and UAVs), a naval force (fighters, platforms, and weapons for the purpose of damaging infrastructure and navy ships), and cyber and intelligence capabilities. These capabilities were well concealed by the organization in highly populated areas and civilian facilities. By perfecting the ability to operate in the underground space, the organization was able to develop and operate a well-oiled and coordinated system with lethal potential.

Israel, implementing an orderly plan of action with patience and professionalism, managed to strike all components of the Hamas war machine, while inflicting real damage on the underground component, eliminating the naval capability, and with impressive success neutralizing most of Hamas’s air capability and the potential damage and lethality of the rockets. This impressive outcome is a result of the Iron Dome system, the discipline of the home front, and the destruction of rocket stockpiles and multi-barreled launchers, which allow the firing of heavy barrages, designed to obstruct the Iron Dome system and inflict greater damage.

In addition, Israel succeeded in eliminating an impressive number of active members at various command levels, and particularly impressive achievements were recorded in eliminating the chain of command in the development and production array of weapon systems. Based on the understanding that the homes of many Hamas commanders – who managed to separate themselves from the beleaguered population and build luxury residences for themselves – also serve as military headquarters or access points to the underground space, many of these houses were destroyed. This will weigh heavily on Hamas commanders who survive and return to the rubble.

Hamas has been hit hard militarily, and its impressive achievements at the beginning of the campaign on the various fronts and levels have been largely eroded. Hamas’s military reconstruction capability was also impaired. Although even at the end of the campaign, in its current format, Hamas will be left with military capabilities and the power to harm Israel, these will be limited and significantly reduced. In this sense, Hamas as a military terrorist organization was not destroyed, but it was led to a severe reality crisis, whose dimensions and consequences will be become clearer to the organization’s leadership in the days to come, and will require it to both conduct a serious self-examination and supply a series of explanations and excuses to the Palestinian public in the Gaza Strip and beyond.