MESOP TODAYS COMMENTARY BY : HAID HAID – PYD/PKK don’t go for Putin ! / What a partnership with Russia would mean for Syrian Kurds

(Haid Haid is a program manager at the German Heinrich Böll Stiftung’s office in Beirut)

7 Oct 2015 – Syrian Kurds have publically welcomed the recent Russian military intervention in Syria and have shown willingness to fight ISIS with them. In a private interview, Salih Muslim, co-president of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) — the dominant Kurdish actor on the ground in Syria — said: “We will fight alongside whoever fights Daesh [ISIS].” Sipan Hemo, general commander of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), also showed readiness to cooperate with Russia and asked for military support: “We want Russian air support against ISIS. We want weapons. We can work together with Russia against ISIS.”

While Russia’s priority in Syria is to protect the Assad regime, this doesn’t seem to concern the YPG, which is focusing on enhancing their power and extending their territory. The withdrawal of Syrian security forces in the summer of 2012 allowed them to rule their regions locally and become the main power there without a fight, and they are not interested in fighting Assad unless he attacks them and tries to take back territory they hold. Putin’s remark at the UN General Assembly about the positive role of Kurds also indicated that Russia might consider partnering with Syrian Kurds. The possibility of such cooperation raises many questions: How would it impact the American-Kurdish alliance? How will Turkey react? Would it change relations between Kurds and rebel groups?

Common interests

Syrian Kurds might be inclined toward Russian support since it’s unlikely that Moscow would show much consideration for Turkish interests. Russia considers the Kurdish-governed territories near its border a security threat. The Kurds also feel that the support they get from the US is insufficient in their fight against ISIS and they lay the blame for this on Turkish influence.

Syrian Kurds also view Russian intervention as a means by which to stop Turkey from attacking them in Syria. The PYD and YPG are affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been fighting Turkish authorities for more than 30 years. Tension between the PYD and Turkey has increased since Turkey started their recent attacks on the PKK in August 2015. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu threated to attack the YPG if they supported PKK attacks in Turkey, saying: “If there is any leakages from Syria like in Iraq [sic]. . . we would not hesitate to strike at any group that poses a threat to our national security.” However, Salih Muslim believes that the Russians will not allow that to happen, not so much to defend Kurds but to defend Syria’s border. “Russia has a joint defense agreement with Syria,” he said. “They will prevent Turkish intervention not to defend us [Kurds] but to defend Syria’s border.”

Russia could also use such a partnership to increase the popularity of its coalition against ISIS. Kurds are perceived internationally as a crucial and reliable group in the fight against ISIS. With air support from the American-led coalition Kurds were able to break the siege of Kobane and push ISIS out of around 11,000 square kilometers of territory in northern Syria in recent months. Winning them over to the Russian coalition, largely composed of actors fighting for Assad, could boost the coalition’s image.

Downsides

There are practical and strategic reasons for Syrian Kurds to think twice about this option. For one, fighting ISIS doesn’t seem to be Russia’s priority given that its airstrikes have mainly targeted other rebel groups, including CIA-supported rebels. If the Kurds were to be seen as pro-Assad forces, they would risk being targeted by rebel groups. Many groups, including the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood and the Syrian Islamic Council, have already issued fatwas condemning Russian forces in Syria as occupiers, which makes fighting them obligatory. A partnership with Russia would also raise concerns about the fate of the YPG’s alliance with the Free Syrian Army, and, of course, the future of Arab-Kurdish relations in Syria.

A public PYD alliance with Russia and Assad would likely increase Turkey’s long-standing distrust of the group, and Turkey could consequently take extreme measures to fight them. Turkey has strong alliances with rebels and Arab tribes in Syria that could be mobilized against the YPG. The significance of Syrian Kurds in the fight against ISIS might not outweigh Turkey’s importance to the United States, and as such the Americans could turn a blind eye to Turkish attacks on them, especially if they were perceived as a threat to Turkish national security.

US support for the YPG in their fight against ISIS played a crucial role in defeating the group locally. The YPG would most likely get less support from Russia since, unlike the US, Russia has other partners on the ground in Syria. Furthermore, YPG territories are insignificant to the Syrian regime’s survival, so protecting them is not at all likely to be a Russian priority. It’s not a certainty that partnering with Moscow would cause US support for the YPG to dry up, but the Obama administration might very well exercise more caution, potentially reducing their support if Kurdish forces came to be seen as invaders in areas where Arabs are the majority.

There are no clear indications that a Kurdish-Russian coalition would help give the YPG a better position against ISIS. On the contrary, it’s highly likely that it would increase Kurdish-Turkish tensions and negatively impact the efforts of Syrians in general — both Arabs and Kurds — to build an inclusive country for all.

Haid Haid is a program manager at the Heinrich Böll Stiftung’s office in Beirut. He tweets @HaidHaid22