MESOP STATISTICS : Attacks Up But Casualties Remain Stable In Iraq Dec 8-14, 2014 – Joel Wing

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18 Dec 2014 – Musings on Iraq – Violence in Iraq saw a slight increase in the second week of December 2014 due to fighting in Anbar. There the Islamic State continued its siege of Ramadi while the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and tribes launched an attempt to retake Hit. IS also succeeded in taking two small towns in Salahaddin and started attacking Muqtadiya in Diyala. Otherwise, the country saw some of the lowest casualty figures of the year. In the second week of December there was a slight increase in the number of attacks reported in the press. From December 8-14 there were 156 security incidents. That broke a trend of four full weeks of between 120-130 attacks. The previous week for instance there was 137 incidents. The main reason why there was more violence was the fighting in Anbar. There the number of incidents went from 19 the first week of December to 38 the next. Overall, Salahaddin had the most attacks with 40, then Anbar and Baghdad had 38 each, Diyala had 18, Kirkuk had 9, Ninewa 8, Babil and Karbala two each, and there was one incident in Basra. While attacks might be up casualties remained extremely low.

There were 233 killed for the second week of December. That was made up of 56 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 1 sahwa, 1 peshmerga, and 175 civilians. That was the lowest amount of deaths for the year surpassing the 246 seen from May 1-7. Anbar had the most deaths with 79, followed by 69 in Salahaddin, 49 in Baghdad, 18 in Diyala, seven each in Ninewa and Kirkuk, three in Babil, and one in Karbala. From the first to second week of the month fatalities went down in every province except Diyala. There were another 444 people wounded consisting of 72 ISF, 3 peshmerga, and 369 civilians. That was the second lowest figure of the year, and roughly the same as last week’s 476. Additionally the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) released figures for its losses since June, which amounted to 727 killed and 3,564 wounded amongst its fighting forces. Compared to numbers already reported in the press that was an additional 166 deaths and 1,113 wounded. For the year that brings the totals to 9,824 attacks, 23,529 killed, and 36,588 wounded.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2014

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	244	363	733
Jan 8-14	272	364	676
Jan 15-21	205	358	616
Jan 22-28	236	305	618
Jan 29-31	57	93	237
JAN	1,014	1,483	2,890
Feb 1-7	211	306	706
Feb 8-14	229	258	505
Feb 15-21	264	347	703
Feb 22-28	251	374	617
FEB	955	1,285	2,531
Mar 1-7	252	412	702
Mar 8-14	205	323	610
Mar 15-21	216	423	736
Mar 22-27	211	279	580
Mar 28-31	108	169	261
MAR	992	1,606	2,889
Apr 1-7	238	259	550
Apr 8-14	224	362	646
Apr 15-21	241	406	805
Apr 22-28	226	347	744
Apr 29-30	61	82	179
APR	990	1,456	2,924
May 1-7	198	246	483
May 8-14	257	466	752
May 15-21	183	256	426
May 22-28	203	403	810
May 29-31	64	91	131
MAY	905	1,462	2,602
Jun 1-7	228	612	1,020
Jun 8-14	234	1,889	890
Jun 15-21	179	803	759
Jun 22-28	203	733	777
Jun 29-30	59	127	236
JUN	901	4,172	3,701
Jul 1-7	203	526	651
Jul 8-14	214	577	628
Jul 15-21	230	444	1,009
Jul 22-28	224	589	801
Jul 29-31	66	163	230
JUL	937	2,299	3,319
Aug 1-8	269	1,122	885
Aug 9-14	179	710	1,152
Aug 15-21	150	354	499
Aug 22-28	156	523	798
Aug 29-31	59	125	289
AUG	813	2,834	3,623
Sep 1-7	168	616	751
Sep 8-14	156	433	722
Sep 15-21	166	620	749
Sep 22-28	153	395	573
Sep 29-30	47	112	252
SEP	690	2,176	3,047
Oct 1-7	170	451	687
Oct 8-14	188	532	875
Oct 15-21	156	449	770
Oct 22-28	159	345	592 + 1,230
Oct 29-31	68	570	227
OCT	741	2,347	3,151 + 1,230
Nov 1-7	153	601	828
Nov 8-14	128	420	593
Nov 15-21	134	283	464
Nov 22-28	138	321	640
Nov 29-30	40	62	123
NOV	593	1,687	2,648
Dec 1-7	137	323	476
Dec 8-14	156	233 + 166	444 + 1,113
2014	9,824	23,529	36,588

Violence In Iraq By Province Dec 2014

Province	Violence
Anbar	19 Incidents84 Killed: 16 ISF, 68 Civilians 58 Wounded: 6 ISF, 52 Civilians 11 Shootings 1 IED	38 Incidents79 Killed: 28 ISF, 51 Civilians 146 Wounded: 28 ISF, 118 Civilians 22 Shootings 1 IED 3 Mortar 5 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb
Babil	5 Incidents6 Killed: 2 ISF, 4 Civilians 20 Wounded: 4 ISF, 16 Civilians 4 IEDs 1 Car Bomb	2 Incidents3 Killed: 1 ISF, 2 Civilians 10 Wounded: 2 ISF, 8 Civilians 2 IEDs
Baghdad	44 Incidents97 Killed: 97 Civilians 262 Wounded: 7 ISF, 255 Civilians 11 Shootings 25 IEDs 1 Mortar 5 Sticky Bombs 2 Car Bombs	38 Incidents49 Killed: 2 ISF, 47 Civilians 135 Wounded: 16 ISF, 119 Civilians 11 Shootings 18 IEDs 4 Stick Bombs 1 Mortar 3 Rockets
Basra	1 Incident2 Stun Bombs	1 Incident
Diyala	8 Incidents8 Killed: 2 Peshmerga, 6 Civilians 10 Wounded: 6 ISF, 4 Civilians 6 Shootings 2 IEDs	18 Incidents18 Killed: 3 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 1 Peshmerga, 13 Civilians 28 Wounded: 1 ISF, 2 Peshmerga, 25 Civilians 6 Shootings 1 IED 1 Suicide Bomber 3 Mortar
Kirkuk	6 Incidents18 Killed: 18 Civilians 22 Wounded: 22 Civilians 1 Shooting 3 Mortar 1 Suicide Car Bomb	9 Incidents7 Killed: 7 Civilians 12 Wounded: 12 Civilians 3 Shootings 50 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Mortar
Ninewa	13 Incidents15 Killed: 1 ISF, 4 Peshmerga, 10 Civilians 6 Shootings 6 IEDs	8 Incidents7 Killed: 2 ISF, 5 Civilians 5 Wounded: 1 Peshmerga, 4 Civilians 3 Shootings 4 IEDs
Salahaddin	41 Incidents95 Killed: 22 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 72 Civilians 104 Wounded: 4 ISF, 100 Civilians 24 Shootings 31 IEDs 3 Mortar 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Suicide Car Bomb	40 Incidents69 Killed: 20 ISF, 49 Civilians 104 Wounded: 25 ISF, 79 Civilians 18 Shootings 11 IEDs 10 Mortar 3 Rockets 2 Suicide Car Bombs

Car Bomb Attacks In Iraq Dec 2014

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Dec 1
Dec 2	Mahmudiya, Babil		1
Dec 3
Dec 4	Shaab & Sadr City, BaghdadShorja, Kirkuk	39	97
Dec 5
Dec 6
Dec 7	Salman, Salahaddin	9	17
1st Wk Totals	5	48	115
Dec 8
Dec 9	Nikhaib, Anbar
Dec 10	Ramadi, Anbar	1	1
Dec 11	Ramadi, AnbarDijla & Mutasim, Salahaddin	12	25
Dec 12
Dec 13	Haditha & Ramadi, Anbar	15	33
Dec 14
2nd Wk Totals	7	28	59

One cause of the decline in casualties has been a decided decrease in the number of vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) deployed by the Islamic State. In the first week of December there were only five and no waves, the first time that had happened since April. There was one wave the second week from December 9 to 11 hitting Anbar and Salahaddin. Surprisingly there were no attacks upon Baghdad that week. Instead all of the car bombs were used as tactical weapons usually in conjunction with armed attacks on cities and towns such as Ramadi and Haditha in Anbar and Dijla and Mutasim in Salahaddin. In total, 28 people were killed and 59 wounded by VBIEDs December 8 to 14.

IS continued its major push in Anbar. Its main target remained Ramadi where there was fighting throughout the week. Insurgents launched repeated attempts upon the city often coming form multiple directions, but they were repulsed each time. On December 8 for example, the government complex in the center of the city was attacked starting at 7am and lasting until the afternoon. A major attack was also launched upon the Hawouz district. Air strikes were called in, which blunted the offensive. IS was more successful seizing small towns in the middle of the province with 15 taken on December 12, along with Dulab and Wafa. On the other hand, the long awaited government attempt to retake Hit began on December 11. The ISF and tribes made little headway as IEDs held up their advance. The attacks on the surrounding towns was likely a way for the IS to draw away forces from Hit. The struggle for control of the province has been going on for months now. Insurgents have been quite successful there with a major victory every couple weeks to the point that they now control around 85% of Anbar. Still they have been fighting for Ramadi since January. While they have gained more ground in the city, it has yet to fall. The government has been able to hold onto other major cities such as Amiriya Fallujah as well despite months of assaults. Still the province is in a precarious situation, especially because the government is more focused upon other areas of the country. That has led the local government and tribes to feel that they are being neglected and left to largely fight on their own.

Babil is going in the exact opposite direction from Anbar. There IS has been completely disrupted after it lost its long time base in Jurf al-Sakhr. It is now attempting to regroup in the north, but attacks have taken a large drop as a result. For the week there were only two attacks consisting of an IED on Shiite pilgrims heading for Karbala on December 8 that killed two and wounded eight, and another IED on December 10 that left one soldier dead and two injured. The week before there were five incidents, nine November 22-28, six November 15-21, nine November 8-14, and eleven November 1-7. In comparison there were an average of 2.2 attacks per day in January. The clearing of Jurf al-Sakhr was a major victory for the government and it has paid dividends by disrupted IS operation not only in that province, but in the south as well as Babil was used as a staging area for attacks and especially car bombs into that region.

Diyala was the only province that saw an increase in attacks for the week going from eight to 18. The main target was Muqtadiya in the center of the governorate. From December 5-9 six people were kidnapped. December 8, 11 and 12 the city was hit by mortar fire, and that last day there was also a suicide bombing. The IS did face a setback recently when it lost Sadiya and Jalawla in the eastern part of the governorate. Now those two towns are part of a major dispute between the Kurds, local Arabs, militias, and the central government. Some local tribes are claiming that the peshmerga are not allowing them to return to their homes now that the insurgents have been expelled, while the Kurds claim they are IS supporters. There was also a report that the peshmerga was destroying Arab homes in the area to stop them from returning. The Kurds are also feuding with the militias over who will control Sadiya and Jalawla. The Kurds claim them as part of their disputed territories that were taken from them under Saddam, but the militias say they should be under the central government’s rule. The Kurds have been demanding that the militias either share power or withdraw, while the latter has refused. On December 14, a peshmerga commander said that the army could not return to Jalawla unless the Kurds were given joint administration of it and Sadiya. Finally, on December 9, the Tigris Operations Command announced the start of an operation to clear Arab Jabour north of Muqtadiya. The head of the command said that the area has been used as an IS base. Despite all this activity security in Diyala has improved recently. From 2013 to August Diyala was one of the most violent areas of the country, but attacks have dropped off since then. Whether that was due to the efforts of the security forces or IS sending their assets to other areas or a combination of both is unknown.

The Islamic State started targeting Hawija in eastern Kirkuk during the week. From December 8-13 47 houses belonging to members of the security forces and sahwa were blown up there with more in surrounding villages. December 13 17 people were kidnapped, and the next day a former candidate was executed by IS. Hawija was a long time insurgent base dating back to 2003. It was later a center for the Baathist Naqshibandi, but after the summer offensive it was forced out by IS. That change in control is seen by the fact that the Islamists are behind the recent spate of incidents.

In Ninewa, IS continued to try to take Mount Sinjar while there was talk of making an attempt upon Mosul by government forces sooner rather than later. On December 11 and 13 there were attacks upon Mount Sinjar. The area has remained surrounded for several weeks now with Kurdish forces taking some towns on the outskirts of the mountain every now and then with occasional IS assaults. With regards to Mosul, there is growing pressure to make a stab at retaking it by the government. On December 10 for instance, the Ninewa council said that the first shipment of weapons was sent to fighters who were preparing to attack Mosul. The U.S. is trying to temper Iraqi expectations, and want to build up Iraq’s forces before any assault is launched. Mosul is the most important city held by the Islamic State within Iraq, and it is also the second largest urban area in the country. Losing it would be the biggest setback IS could face so far. Because of its size however it would be a major undertaking for Baghdad as well, which is why the Americans are advising caution.

After facing several reversals the insurgents went back on the offensive in the second week of December in Salahaddin. On December 7 it seized the town of Mutasim. Fighting continued there the next day with seven Federal Police killed and 11 Wounded, and the municipal building and several homes belonging to members of the ISF being blown up. By December 9 the Defense Ministry claimed that it had cleared the town, but then on December 10 the Samarra Operations Command said that only 60% of the area was free. The presence of insurgents in Mutasim was confirmed by a suicide car bomb going off that day. December 11 there was another story that the town was freed, but December 12 the Interior Ministry launched Revenge of Mutasim Operation killing 33 insurgents in fighting there. Finally on December 13 militants shot down an ISF helicopter over the town. December 10 IS also took the town of Dijla beginning with a mortar barrage on an army base, followed by an assault on the camp and the village itself. That forced the local security forces to withdraw to the south of the town. Helicopters were then called in to attack the insurgents. There was also fighting in Ishaqi, Yathrib, Balad, and Tikrit showing the breadth of territory insurgents are still active in. On the other hand, the ISF said that it carried out successful operations in Albu Haswa in the Dujail area, and had complete control of Baiji. The province continues to be a main focus of the pro-government forces as well with Badr Organization head Hadi Ameri reportedly preparing another major offensive there. The back and forth between militants and government backed forces showed that Salahaddin, along with Anbar were the two main battlefronts in the country. Baghdad has had several successes and is attempting to build upon them, but IS and other armed groups are not willing to give up without a fight hence the attacks upon Mutasim and Dijla. Salahaddin is going to be an area of conflict for the foreseeable future.

SOURCES

Abdullah, Dalshad, “Baghdad preparing to liberate Mosul from ISIS: sources,” Asharq Al-Awsat, 12/10/14

AIN, “13 ISIL terrorists killed in Mutasim District,” 12/11/14

Alsumaria, “Daash executed former candidate for the elections southwest of Kirkuk,” 12/14/14

– “Daash organization kidnaps 17 civilians who refused to pledge allegiance in the south-west of Kirkuk,” 12/13/14

– “Policeman sacrifices himself to prevent suicide bomber storming Husseiniya northeast of Baquba,” 12/12/14

– “Salahuddin Council : Security forces in full control of Baiji,” 12/10/14

– “Security forces liberated the area south of Tikrit, killing 30 elements of Daash,” 12/10/14

– “Source: seven cases of kidnapping were registered during last four days in Muqdadiyah in Diyala,” 12/9/14

Al Arabiya, “Tribal chief: ISIS seizes 15 villages in Iraq’s Anbar,” 12/12/14

Associated Press “Attacks kill 15 in Iraq as country battles IS,” 12/10/14

Bas News, “Coalition Warplane Mistakenly Kills 16 Civilians in Iraqi Town,” 12/13/14

Coles, Isabel, “Rivalries resurface in Iraqi town recaptured from Islamic State,” Reuters, 12/8/14

Al Forat, “ISF block terrorist attack in Bald district,” 12/10/14

– “ISF declares liberating Albo Haswa area of ISIL,” 12/10/14

– “Samarra OC assures liberating 60% of Mutasim area,” 12/10/14

Iraq Times, “Two suicide bombing targeting security forces in Samarra area,” 12/10/14

Al Jazeera, “ISIL fighters gain ground in Iraq’s Anbar,” 12/13/14

Al Mada, “Daash destroys dozens of homes of members of the security forces and the Awakening in areas south and west of Kirkuk,” 12/13/14

– “Defense announces clearing of area around Samarra and the killing of 51 Daash elements,” 12/9/14

– “Killing and injuring ten people in forty bombing south of Baghdad,” 12/8/14

– “Killing and wounding 18 people in the fall of mortar shells on the Shiite shrine north east of Baquba,” 12/12/14

Al Masalah, “Badr: Ameri goes to lift the siege on Dhuluiya,” 12/11/14

Middle East Eye, “IS retakes al-Dolab district in Iraq’s Anbar province,” 12/12/14

NINA, “/15/ element of the IS killed in a military operation in the north east of Baquba,” 12/9/14

– “/33/ Elements of the IS killed in “ al-Mutassim First Revenge Operation,”” 12/12/14

– “A Civilian Killed In North East of Baquba,” 12/11/14

– “The imposition of a curfew in the western and northern areas of Ramadi,” 12/12/14

– “More than /40/ people killed and wounded in the aerial bombardment of the International Coalition on the center of Fallujah,” 12/9/14

– “One Soldier Killed, Two Others Injured In IED north of Hilla,” 12/10/14

– “Peshmerga forces repulse an attack by the IS on Sinjar Mount,” 12/11/14

Radio Free Iraq, “10 December 2014,” Daily Updates from Anbar, 12/10/14

– “13 December 2014,” Daily Updates from Anbar, 12/13/14

Radio Nawa, “Two people from the popular crowd killed and five injured in clashes with Daash south of Tikrit,” 12/9/14

Al Rayy, “Security forces and the popular brigades deter an attack by Daash burn two vehicles and kill two of them south of Tikrit,” 12/10/14

– “Tank explosion bomb on a road south of Anbar Nikhaib,” 12/9/14

Radio Free Iraq, “08 December 2014,” Daily Updates from Anbar, 12/8/14

– “10 December 2014,” Daily Updates from Anbar, 12/10/14

Rudaw, “Peshmerga commander lays down conditions for Iraqi army reentry to Jalawla,” 12/14/14

– “Peshmerga repulse ISIS attack on Shingal, kill four militants,” 12/14/14

Schmitt, Eric, “Despite U.S. Warnings, Iraqis Push for Winter Offensive in Mosul,” New York Times, 12/8/14

Shafaq News, “Mutassim proceeds: 18 casualties from the police,” 12/8/14

– “Tribal force of 3000 elements participate in liberating Hit district,” 12/11/14

Shafiq, Mohammed, “Daash blow up the municipal council building in Mutassim and 15 of its elements killed south of Samarra,” Alsumaria, 12/8/14

World Bulletin, “Iraqi forces launch operation against ISIL in Anbar –UPDATED,” 12/11/14

Xinhua, “17 killed in bombings, clashes with IS militants in Iraq’s Salahudin,” 12/10/14

– “Insurgents shoot down military helicopter in Iraq,” 12/13/14

– “Iraqi troops repel two IS attacks, killing 31 in key towns,” 12/8/14

– “Over 700 Iraqi Kurdish fighters killed since IS rise in June: report,” 12/10/14

Posted by Joel Wing at 7:15 AM