MESOP : RECEP TAYYIP’S MIS-CALCULATIONS ? Analysts Predict HDP Will Retain Share of Vote in Fresh Turkish Elections – Polling company reports no significant change likely

Basnews | Luke Coleman – 16.08.2015 – ANKARA – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is widely expected to call a snap election in the next week, as parties in Ankara have failed in attempts to form a coalition.

Pro-Kurdish commenters have claimed that Erdoğan has in fact been blocking progress as he seeks to push his Justice and Development Party (AKP) over the 50% threshold in fresh polls. In the June election the party took less than 41% of the vote, a surprising result that thwarted Erdoğan’s ambitions to move the government towards a presidential system.Much of the AKP share of the vote was given to the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP), which polled well across the country with its leftist manifesto.

The Turkish government has recently made its first significant moves in the regional turmoil, opening up the İncirlik Air Base to the Americans and entering into what it describes as a two-pronged attack on terrorists – although so far the Turkish military has almost entirely concentrated its bombing missions on Kurdistan Workers’ Party positions in the mountains of Iraqi Kurdistan and south east Turkey. Islamic State (IS) militants have been left mostly unscathed in Turkey’s promised campaign against the jihadists.Erdoğan is thought to believe that by attacking the Kurdish rebels he will surf a wave of nationalistic fervour to victory in the predicted election.

According to analysts talking to Sundays Zaman, he can expect to be disappointed.

Professor of political science at Sabancı University Ersin Kalaycıoğlu told the newspaper that greater access to information and easier communication means that voters are wiser and less likely to lean towards the AKP in the face of violence. “Current figures show that voters will not react significantly and that there will be no serious change in the votes for political parties.”Kalaycıoğlu continues, “Those who were behind the start of this bloody period will be questioned more. Will the HDP’s calls for peace be effective? Will the public hold the HDP responsible for the bloodshed? No change [from the June 7 election results] has been observed.

“If the voters decide that this violence was manufactured, it will not put the blame on the HDP but on those who administered the country. We currently see no loss of support that may push the HDP below the threshold and that the public is not inclined to blame the HDP for the bloodshed.”Security analyst Sedat Laçiner believes that while the HDP is likely to lose some strategic votes, the damage won’t be enough to push the party below the 10% threshold required to take seats in the Grand National Assembly. “The HDP has not even lost the strategic votes it received on June 7. Turkish voters, conservatives and even some from Turkish nationalist circles also voted for the HDP in the June 7 election. “The recent deaths of soldiers and police officers will of course reduce the percentage of those strategic votes. People will not be able to vote for the HDP as easily as before. However, this will not create a situation that will push the HDP under the threshold.”The analysis is backed up by a survey conducted by the Gezici Research Company, which has been the subject of repeated “tax inspections” when publishing polls seen as unfavourable by the AKP.

When voters were asked which party they would vote for if a snap election was held, 41.9% chose the AK Party, and 12.3% the HDP.