MESOP MIDEAST WATCH : NO ISRAEL CONTROLLED MID EAST NATO ! – MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis Series No. 1645Failed Initiative To Establish Middle East NATO – Arab Countries Clarify: There Will Be No Regional Military Alliance Against Iran; We Seek To Improve Our Relations With It
By H. Varulkar, Y. Yehoshua, and Z. Harel* MEMRI 26-7-22
In the weeks preceding the visit of U.S. President Joe Biden to Saudi Arabia for the July 16, 2022 Jeddah Security and Development Summit, Arab and international media published numerous reports claiming that one of the main topics slated to be discussed at the summit – attended by Biden and the leaders of the nine Arab countries – was the establishment of a regional military alliance against Iran. According to the reports, this alliance was to include Israel alongside the moderate Arab countries, among them Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, and Jordan. Many were referring to this initiative as the establishment of a “regional NATO.” Remarks by Jordan’s King Abdullah II in a June 24 interview with an American channel, that he would be the first to join a regional NATO, intensified the debate around this issue even further, and the Arab and international press published numerous items about it.
However, as the Jeddah summit approached, Arab countries began to clarify – either officially and explicitly or via articles in the press – that they had no intention of joining a regional military alliance against Iran. For example, before he left for the summit, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi said that Iraq “is not party to any alliance or coalition in the region,” and that it “maintains a balanced policy toward its neighbors and its surroundings.” Anwar Gargash, an advisor to the UAE president, explained that his country would not join such an alliance and that it was in fact considering sending an ambassador to Iran. Reports indicate that in the days leading up to the Jeddah summit, Egypt and Jordan also conveyed secret messages of reassurance to Iran, via Iraq and Oman, in which they stressed that they would not join a regional alliance against it and that they were not interested in escalating the conflict with it.
Eventually, the Jeddah summit indeed concluded with no mention of a regional alliance, either with or without Israel. Moreover, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan declared at the close of the summit that “dialogue and diplomacy are the only way to deal with the Iranian nuclear [program]” and that Saudi Arabia extends its hand to Iran.
U.S. President Biden and Arab heads of state at Jeddah summit (Source: Al-Jazirah, Saudi Arabia, June 17, 2022)
It appears that, even if at some point several Arab countries had considered forming a regional alliance against Iran, a series of considerations and insights led them to discard the idea and to stress that they do not seek a military confrontation with this country. The main consideration is their understanding that the Biden administration is committed to achieving a nuclear agreement with Iran and that it views diplomacy as the best option, if not the only option, for contending with Iran’s nuclear program. Therefore, these countries assess that they cannot depend on the U.S. to protect them from Iran, and fear that the U.S. will not come to their aid in the event of a military confrontation with it, just as it did not come to the aid of Ukraine when it was attacked by Russia.
Moreover, Arab countries apparently fear that the U.S. will sign a new nuclear agreement with Iran which will not address their concerns regarding the conduct of Iran and its militias in the region, and have therefore deemed it prudent to open a direct channel of communication with Iran, rather than move toward military escalation with it. It appears that these countries have taken a strategic decision to maintain calm relations with Iran and seek dialogue with it. In fact, in recent months five rounds of talks, mediated by Iraq and Oman, have been held between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The UAE is likewise maintaining contacts and dialogue with this country, and, as mentioned, Egypt and Jordan have done the same in the recent weeks.
An editorial in the London-based Qatari Al-Quds Al-Arabi daily, titled “Did the ‘Arab NATO’ Initiative Fail?”, concluded that the initiative had “stopped in its tracks.” Al-Sharq Al-Awsat columnist Suleiman Jawda wrote, in a similar vein, that the idea of establishing an Arab NATO against Iran had been “stillborn.” According to him, it failed because it was a American initiative, and was therefore like a plant that had been “uprooted and replanted in foreign soil, so that it withered and died.” The Arab countries, he added, believe that the only way to deal with Iran is via dialogue, not confrontation, so Biden was forced to take his idea of an Arab NATO back to Washington with him.
This report reviews Arab countries’ messages of reassurance to Iran prior to and following the Jeddah summit, as well as their statements that they will not join an alliance against Iran.
UAE: We Won’t Be Part Of Any Alliance Against Iran; We Are Working To Improve Relations With It
The UAE no doubt still views Iran as a significant threat, as evident from statements by senior Emirati officials and from articles in the country’s press. At the same time, in the recent months it seems to be maintaining calm relations with Iran and even a steady dialogue with it. As stated, this appears to be the result of a strategic decision taken by the UAE in light of the Biden Administration’s ongoing pursuit of a nuclear agreement with Iran and rejection of a military confrontation with it, a position that could leave the UAE exposed to Iranian threat. The Emirati position was reflected in a June 19 telephone call between UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed and his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, during which the two diplomats emphasized the shared interests of their countries and the mutual desire to develop the relations and continue the dialogue between them. The Iranian foreign minister even invited his Emirati counterpart to visit Iran.
As Biden’s visit and the Jeddah summit drew near, and as reports about the possibility of an Arab NATO proliferated, Emirati officials began voicing reservations about the idea. For example, on June 26, after the Wall Street Journal reported about a secret meeting, initiated by the U.S., that had been held in March in Sharm Al-Sheikh between high-ranking military commanders from Israel and Arab countries, including the UAE, to discuss cooperation against areal threats from Iran, the UAE issued a clarification. It stated that “The UAE is not party to any regional military alliance or cooperation targeting any specific country… nor is it aware of any formal discussions relating to any such regional military alliance.”