MESOP MIDEAST WATCH : NETANYAHU VISIT YIELDS NO CLEAR GAZA ROADMAP  THE SOUFAN CENTER USA ANALYSIS  – 10-2-25

Bottom Line Up Front:

• Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s meetings in Washington last week did not produce an explicit agreement with the new Trump administration on how to end the war in Gaza permanently.
• Israel – Hamas negotiations to terminate the war remain complicated by fundamental differences in Hamas’ political and military position in postwar Gaza.
• It remains uncertain whether Israel will pursue the further phases of the agreed ceasefire with Hamas or turn attention to President Trump’s suggestions for displacement of the Gaza population.
• Regional and global leaders broadly denounced Trump’s ideas, including his call for a U.S. takeover of Gaza, as illegal and unrealistic, but some explained the suggestions as a call for wider international involvement in postwar Gaza.

Global and regional officials anticipated that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s visit to Washington last week, capped by a meeting with President Trump on February 4, would produce a clear roadmap toward a permanent end to the Israel-Hamas war, a release of all hostages, and a rebuilding of the devastated Gaza Strip. Toward the end of Netanyahu’s week-long visit, negotiators were converging on Qatar to resume negotiations to advance into phases two and three of the January conflict resolution accord, suggesting the existing truce plan remains intact. And, three more Israelis and 183 Palestinian prisoners were released, as expected, on Saturday. But, dramatic Trump proposals announced before and during the week – including displacing the Gaza population to facilitate rebuilding and a U.S. “takeover” of Gaza – seemed to upend the previously agreed way forward. Experts and global diplomats differ over whether Trump’s new proposals for Gaza represent a vetted U.S. government position or an effort to coerce regional leaders to assume responsibility for Gaza’s rebuilding and long-term stability.

Even before Trump unveiled his controversial plans for postwar Gaza, differences between Israel and the United States on the transition from a temporary ceasefire to a permanent settlement in Gaza were apparent. President Trump and his team have indicated a clear preference for Netanyahu to pursue the agreed truce roadmap to completion and avoid a return to the warfare that has caused vast destruction and more than 60,000 deaths in Gaza (civilians and Hamas militia fighters). During the Netanyahu visit, Trump clearly articulated that his administration, as did its predecessor, agrees with Israel’s interpretation of the ceasefire pact that Hamas will not remain in power after the war.

Netanyahu and his hardline allies have not, during his Washington trip or at any time, ruled out a return to conflict if Hamas seeks to remain the paramount political and military authority in Gaza. Hamas’ show of force inside Gaza in recent weeks, particularly during the releases of Israeli hostages that have taken place to date, as well as statements by its leaders, suggest the group intends to remain the paramount force in the enclave indefinitely. Apparently seeking to satisfy Trump’s intent that the Gaza war not flare again, during his visit, Netanyahu proposed various ideas to Trump aides that would meet Israel’s minimum requirements. U.S. officials told journalists that Netanyahu is proposing that, in exchange for Israel permanently ending its military campaign in Gaza, Hamas release the remaining hostages, relinquish power in the Gaza Strip, and senior leaders go into exile.

Regional sources indicate that Hamas has already agreed to give up civilian control of Gaza and to transfer responsibility for the reconstruction process to the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority or an independent committee of technocrats that would govern Gaza. However, Israeli officials report that Hamas is not willing to give up its military power or dismantle its military wing – an outcome that Israeli leaders consider unacceptable. One senior Israeli official told journalists the chances that Hamas senior leaders in Gaza will agree to go into exile are “extremely low.” As a result of the still wide gap between Israel and Hamas, it remained unclear, at the time of Netanyahu’s Saturday departure to return home, whether the Israel-Hamas war would flare anew after phase one of the truce concludes at the end of February.

Overlaying the complications in implementing the conflict resolution agreement reached in January were President Trump’s controversial suggestions for rebuilding and securing postwar Gaza. During the Netanyahu visit, Trump not only repeated his January call for the relocation of Gaza’s population to facilitate the rebuilding of Gaza, but added a new proposal that the U.S. “take over” Gaza and rebuild it as a modern “Riviera of the Middle East.” Trump initially left unexplained how a U.S. takeover of Gaza would be enacted, whether the use of force would be required, how two million Gaza Palestinians would be moved to other countries against their will, and who would finance the rebuilding. Reacting to domestic criticism that his suggestions, if adopted, imply a significant U.S. commitment of funds and troops to postwar Gaza, he clarified on February 6 through his Truth Social media account that Israel would “turn the Gaza Strip over to the United States” after the war with Hamas ends and “no soldiers by the U.S. would be needed!”

Trump’s allies, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, insisted any relocation of Gaza civilians would be temporary – as he and other senior aides sought to tamp down Arab and global officials’ immediate denunciation of the Trump suggestions as illegal forced displacement of the Gaza population and “ethnic cleansing.” The leaders of Egypt and Jordan had already rejected the idea of taking in Palestinians when Trump first raised the idea in January. Both assert that a major influx of Palestinians to their countries, even if temporary, would threaten their stability. King Abdullah of Jordan, a majority of whose population is of Palestinian origin, even went as far as threaten to abrogate Jordan’s 1994 peace treaty if Israel attempts to forcibly expel Palestinians into its territory, according to regional media outlet Middle East Eye. Abdullah is set to visit Washington this week, and Trump’s suggestions for post-war Gaza are certain to form a central focus of his discussions. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan said pointedly on Thursday: “Palestinians do not want to leave their land, and we’re not going to encourage them or force them to leave their land…and we are not going to work with anyone that has that agenda.” Also on Thursday, Hamas called on all Palestinian factions to unite against Trump’s proposed Gaza takeover.

Some Trump allies, in and out of government, defended his suggestions as an attempt to provoke a broader regional discussion of – and responsibility for – securing and rebuilding postwar Gaza. Some U.S. officials said the Trump suggestions spawned a new willingness on the part of some Arab states, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, to contribute to Gaza’s reconstruction – provided U.S. officials do not try to coerce them to host Gaza Palestinians. Others characterized Trump’s views as a belief that a permanent end to the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, and the Israeli-Palestinian dispute more broadly, will require direct and material U.S. involvement and a dramatic departure from existing policies. Some European and other observers said they saw some merit to Trump’s assertions, that it is logistically impossible to rebuild Gaza while the population remains there given the extent of the damage to Gaza’s infrastructure and the presence of unexploded munitions.

Israeli leaders’ reactions to Trump’s statements added to the regional uncertainty that Trump’s comments caused. Comments by some Israeli officials indicated Israel might follow his prescriptions rather than focus on implementing the existing ceasefire roadmap. During their joint news conference on Tuesday, Netanyahu responded positively to Trump’s call for a U.S. takeover of Gaza by saying to Trump: “You cut to the chase…You see things others refuse to see.” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly welcomed what he characterized as Trump’s “bold plan” for Gaza residents to leave the territory. Some regional leaders appeared concerned that Israeli hardliners, who have long advocated displacing Palestinians not only from Gaza but also the West Bank, would go beyond rhetorical support to translate Trump’s suggestions into actual policy. On Thursday, Katz said: “I have instructed the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) to prepare a plan to enable voluntary departure for Gaza residents.” He added they could go “to any country willing to accept them.” Katz said the plan “will include options for exit and land crossings as well as special arrangement for exit by sea and air.” Still, few, if any, regional or global leaders indicated they would welcome Palestinians forcibly or coercively displaced from Gaza, and few Gazans indicated to journalists they would leave their homeland at any price.