MESOP MIDEAST WATCH : Iran should be catalyst for Israel-Saudi normalization

AL MONITOR –  29.7.23 The Biden administration has labelled Israel’s judicial reform bill “unfortunate” and is now pressing ahead with Israel-Saudi normalization which, if successful, would re-set the strategic landscape in the Middle East.

Normalization is more than an aspirational legacy issue for US President Joe Biden and his Saudi and Israeli interlocutors. A Saudi-Israel peace deal has a logic and urgency, given the possible collapse of the Palestinian Authority; the prospects of another Palestinian uprising; and especially the need for an even more robust deterrent posture relative to Iran.

Biden’s tough love on judicial reform

Let’s start with the reform bill, which sparked a political earthquake in Israel. Half of the country, it seems, is on the streets to protest a law that limits the power of Israel’s Supreme Court to challenge government rulings and laws. As a sign of protest, some Israeli reservists have given notice they may not serve, as Ben Caspit reports.

For the other roughly half of Israel that backs Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition, the legislation is an overdue check on the court’s application of a “reasonableness” standard used to undercut government laws and decrees.

Biden took up the cause of those concerned about the consequences of the legislation for Israeli democracy, but it’s a tricky one for US diplomacy at any level. Netanyahu’s government was democratically elected and holds the majority in the Knesset, or parliament. No US aid or assistance is contingent on a US interpretation or standard of Israeli democratic governance or judicial practice.

Biden’s willingness to press the case probably comes from a heartfelt belief in the “shared democratic vales” that underpin and animate the US-Israel relationship — and that he believes are challenged by the legislation.

There will be subsequent Israeli legislation in the fall, and perhaps a “broader consensus through political dialogue,” as the White House has advised, can be formed before then, facilitated by US mediation.

Daoud Kuttab meanwhile reports disappointment in the West Bank and Gaza that Israel’s pro-democracy movement has found little common ground with the Palestinians.

Iran may be wild card for Saudi-Israel normalization

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and White House Special Middle East Coordinator Brett McGurk met with Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud on Thursday to advance talks on Israel-Saudi normalization, among other regional issues.

If successful, normalization could rival the Egypt-Israel peace agreement and the Camp David accords in resetting the strategic landscape in the Middle East.

All three parties — Washington, Riyadh and Tel Aviv — may want the result, but the outcome is not assured.

Saudi Arabia’s terms are steep: a defense pact with the United States; support for its civilian nuclear program; and access to the most advanced US weapons systems. The US, for its part, wants an end to the Yemen war and a massive Saudi investment in the Palestinian Authority, which is on the verge of collapse. Netanyahu considers Saudi normalization a legacy issue, as it would be for all three leaders. But Bibi will have a tough sell with his right-wing coalition partners if any accommodation with the Palestinians is part of the deal.

Biden is weighing the options, according to the New York Times’ Tom Friedman. All of these asks would also require congressional buy-in, and that wouldn’t come easily.

But Biden is right to press ahead with what would likely be long and difficult negotiations.

Perhaps more than any other single initiative, Israel-Saudi normalization could provide both a lifeline for a two-state solution and an enhanced deterrent posture toward Iran, in addition to the potential for trade and investment.

Let’s start with the near-dead two-state solution. The Palestinian Authority is collapsing in a crisis of authority and legitimacy, and a new Palestinian uprising appears likely, anchored by increasingly militant armed groups in the West Bank towns of Jenin and Nablus.

And the problem is not just with the PA. It takes two. Netanyahu would need to enact his own turnaround toward the Palestinians by reining in his radical right ministers, including Itamar Ben-Gvir, who visited the Temple Mount, Haram al-Sharif, on Thursday, eliciting protests and condemnation throughout the region, as well as a statement of “concern” from Washington.

Maybe such turnarounds are impossible under current leadership in Tel Aviv and Ramallah. But there is recent precedent for this conditionality in peace-making. The UAE normalized with Israel in 2020 only after getting assurances that Netanyahu would not annex parts of the West Bank.

A Saudi-Israel peace deal would also boost the US and regional deterrent posture toward Iran. Absent the more intrusive inspections and monitoring required in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran will remain a nuclear weapons threshold state, requiring heightened vigilance. In October 2023, the JCPOA calls for lifting UN restrictions on Iran’s import and export of missile- and drone-related technology. Last week Iran bragged about its development of a new ballistic missile employing AI technology.

In the long game of diplomacy and deterrence with Iran, you can’t have enough deterrence, especially given Iranian interests and influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza. US and regional security interests are, simply put, better served with Israel and Saudi Arabia aligned. No diplomatic outcome is ever assured, but this one is worth the effort.

AL MONITOR –  29.7.23 The Biden administration has labelled Israel’s judicial reform bill “unfortunate” and is now pressing ahead with Israel-Saudi normalization which, if successful, would re-set the strategic landscape in the Middle East.

Normalization is more than an aspirational legacy issue for US President Joe Biden and his Saudi and Israeli interlocutors. A Saudi-Israel peace deal has a logic and urgency, given the possible collapse of the Palestinian Authority; the prospects of another Palestinian uprising; and especially the need for an even more robust deterrent posture relative to Iran.

Biden’s tough love on judicial reform

Let’s start with the reform bill, which sparked a political earthquake in Israel. Half of the country, it seems, is on the streets to protest a law that limits the power of Israel’s Supreme Court to challenge government rulings and laws. As a sign of protest, some Israeli reservists have given notice they may not serve, as Ben Caspit reports.

For the other roughly half of Israel that backs Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition, the legislation is an overdue check on the court’s application of a “reasonableness” standard used to undercut government laws and decrees.

Biden took up the cause of those concerned about the consequences of the legislation for Israeli democracy, but it’s a tricky one for US diplomacy at any level. Netanyahu’s government was democratically elected and holds the majority in the Knesset, or parliament. No US aid or assistance is contingent on a US interpretation or standard of Israeli democratic governance or judicial practice.

Biden’s willingness to press the case probably comes from a heartfelt belief in the “shared democratic vales” that underpin and animate the US-Israel relationship — and that he believes are challenged by the legislation.

There will be subsequent Israeli legislation in the fall, and perhaps a “broader consensus through political dialogue,” as the White House has advised, can be formed before then, facilitated by US mediation.

Daoud Kuttab meanwhile reports disappointment in the West Bank and Gaza that Israel’s pro-democracy movement has found little common ground with the Palestinians.

Iran may be wild card for Saudi-Israel normalization

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and White House Special Middle East Coordinator Brett McGurk met with Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud on Thursday to advance talks on Israel-Saudi normalization, among other regional issues.

If successful, normalization could rival the Egypt-Israel peace agreement and the Camp David accords in resetting the strategic landscape in the Middle East.

All three parties — Washington, Riyadh and Tel Aviv — may want the result, but the outcome is not assured.

Saudi Arabia’s terms are steep: a defense pact with the United States; support for its civilian nuclear program; and access to the most advanced US weapons systems. The US, for its part, wants an end to the Yemen war and a massive Saudi investment in the Palestinian Authority, which is on the verge of collapse. Netanyahu considers Saudi normalization a legacy issue, as it would be for all three leaders. But Bibi will have a tough sell with his right-wing coalition partners if any accommodation with the Palestinians is part of the deal.

Biden is weighing the options, according to the New York Times’ Tom Friedman. All of these asks would also require congressional buy-in, and that wouldn’t come easily.

But Biden is right to press ahead with what would likely be long and difficult negotiations.

Perhaps more than any other single initiative, Israel-Saudi normalization could provide both a lifeline for a two-state solution and an enhanced deterrent posture toward Iran, in addition to the potential for trade and investment.

Let’s start with the near-dead two-state solution. The Palestinian Authority is collapsing in a crisis of authority and legitimacy, and a new Palestinian uprising appears likely, anchored by increasingly militant armed groups in the West Bank towns of Jenin and Nablus.

And the problem is not just with the PA. It takes two. Netanyahu would need to enact his own turnaround toward the Palestinians by reining in his radical right ministers, including Itamar Ben-Gvir, who visited the Temple Mount, Haram al-Sharif, on Thursday, eliciting protests and condemnation throughout the region, as well as a statement of “concern” from Washington.

Maybe such turnarounds are impossible under current leadership in Tel Aviv and Ramallah. But there is recent precedent for this conditionality in peace-making. The UAE normalized with Israel in 2020 only after getting assurances that Netanyahu would not annex parts of the West Bank.

A Saudi-Israel peace deal would also boost the US and regional deterrent posture toward Iran. Absent the more intrusive inspections and monitoring required in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran will remain a nuclear weapons threshold state, requiring heightened vigilance. In October 2023, the JCPOA calls for lifting UN restrictions on Iran’s import and export of missile- and drone-related technology. Last week Iran bragged about its development of a new ballistic missile employing AI technology.

In the long game of diplomacy and deterrence with Iran, you can’t have enough deterrence, especially given Iranian interests and influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza. US and regional security interests are, simply put, better served with Israel and Saudi Arabia aligned. No diplomatic outcome is ever assured, but this one is worth the effort.