MESOP MIDEAST WATCH : BLINKEN’S VISIT TO TURKEY WITHOUT ERDOGAN

Did Erdogan snub Blinken?

Unlike his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who visited Ankara last week, Blinken’s itinerary did not include a meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a move many considered a snub by the Turkish leader.

State of play 

Blinken’s visit came amid growing differences between Ankara and Western capitals regarding the Israel-Hamas war. US-Turkey ties in particular have deteriorated in recent years as a result of the US alliance with Syrian Kurdish rebels, the US Congress’ objections to a Turkish bid to purchase new F-16 fighter jets, and more recently, Turkey’s delay of Sweden’s NATO ratification.

Just a day before Blinken’s visit, the Turkish Foreign Ministry announced that it was recalling its ambassador to Israel for consultations, citing the Jewish state’s refusal of a cease-fire in Gaza.

Meanwhile, Erdogan’s public statements chastising Israel and Western capitals, particularly Washington, have lessened since Blinken’s visit. A more than two-hour meeting between Blinken and his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, signaled both sides’ efforts to decrease tensions and seek areas of cooperation.

According to Serhat Guvenc, professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Kadir Has University, Erdogan’s snub was not just sending a message to the Biden administration but also to a domestic audience.

“Such gestures at least alleviate the public’s anger,” Guvenc told me, pointing out that Washington’s staunch support for Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza antagonized the Turkish public. Prior to Blinken’s arrival on Sunday, hundreds protested outside Incirlik air base, which houses US troops in Turkey’s southern province of Adana. Police were forced to use water cannons and tear gas to disperse the crowd as some individuals attempted to enter the compound.

“Nevertheless, I believe that the two and a half hour meeting held without an interpreter, through direct communication, is important,” Guvenc said. “Both sides most likely got their mutual grievances off their chests.”

According to Guvenc, the Israel-Hamas war forces the two capitals to set their differences aside — at least for a while — and work to prevent the regional expansion of the conflict via Iran or its proxies. “Neither Turkey nor the United States can afford that,” Guvenc said.

The unprecedented move came after the Constitutional Court last month ruled in favor of releasing a prominent rights activist and newly elected opposition lawmaker, Can Atalay, from jail on the grounds that his right to hold office and other freedoms were violated.

On Wednesday, the appeals court announced that it would not abide by the decision of the Constitutional Court, claiming that nine out of the 15-justice panel who voted for Atalay’s release violated the constitution.

Atalay has been behind bars for over a year, along with four other rights activists convicted of attempting to overthrow the government during the 2013 nationwide protests. Their trials have been widely slammed as politically motivated and aimed at silencing dissent. Among the convicts is prominent Turkish philanthropist Osman Kavala, who has been locked up for six years.

Friction between the two courts has exacerbated concerns over the country’s judicial independence, which government critics argue has largely eroded under Erdogan’s presidency.

Releasing its annual report this week on Turkey, whose bid to join the European Union has been frozen since 2018, the European Commission  expressed serious concerns over “the continued deterioration of democratic standards, the rule of law, the independence of the judiciary and respect for fundamental rights.”

On Thursday, Nacho Sanchez Amor, the European Parliament’s rapporteur on Turkey, described the clash between the two courts as “surreal,” saying, “It opens an unprecedented institutional crisis and confirms all concerns about Turkey’s judiciary expressed for years.”

Opposition parties also slammed the top appeals court’s move as a “judicial coup” attempt against the parliament. In its ruling on Wednesday, the top appeals court also said it would instruct parliament to strip Atalay of his parliamentary membership.

Ozgur Ozel, the new leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) called for an emergency meeting to discuss the matter. Afterward, CHP and some other opposition lawmakers staged a sit-in at the parliament’s general assembly, protesting “the judicial crisis and the coup attempt.”

Many believe the clash reflects the deep-running power struggle within the Turkish judiciary between those who are close to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and those who are close to its ally the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) .

Although Erdogan hasn’t commented on the issue as of this writing, his close aides already rallied behind the top appeals court. Mehmet Ucum, Erdogan’s chief advisor, defended the top appeals court, accusing the Constitutional Court of engaging in “judicial activism.”

“Turkey will defend its national judiciary against pro-Western and neo-liberal judicial approaches to the end,” he said.

Yet, the Constitutional Court’s pro-Western stance is questionable given a series of rulings that clash with Western democratic standards. Just this week, the court upheld a controversial “disinformation” law that has led to the prosecution of dozens of journalists.

According to Gokcer Tahincioglu, a veteran justice reporter, the mixed signals coming from the AKP camp also indicate internal differences within the ruling party.

“There has been a tendency for local courts not to comply with the rulings of the Constitutional Court on critical issues for a long time,” Tahincioglu said. But now, “for the first time, a high court, the top appeals court, openly declared that it wouldn’t abide by the ruling. They also filed a criminal complaint against its members.”

Still, the Constitutional Court’s launching of an investigation against its own members seems effectively impossible as such a step would require at least 10 justices, Tahincioglu noted.