MESOP ANALYSIS: Cease Fire Agreements in Syria & their Effectiveness

Executive Summary – Omran Center for Strategic Studies and the Syrian Center for Statistics and Research conducted a survey of close to 1000 respondents inside Syria (Damascus, Damascus Suburbs and Homs) on public opinion towards Cease-Fire Agreements (CFAs) with the regime of Bashar Assad during the summer of 2014. Results of the Survey indicate the following: While 69% of respondents show general support of CFAs, only 5% say that CFAs insure justice, freedom and dignity for people.

Respondents indicate that CFAs are temporary relief to the dire living conditions they have suffered.  Such conditions include surviving extended city-wide sieges and/or the dangers and insecurities of neighborhoods that have suffered worsening living conditions, i.e. increased crime and illness.

Residents had little participation in drafting or adopting CFAs and were pressured by the conditions of siege, i.e. lack of access to food, medical supplies, electricity, etc. 64% of respondents affirmed the siege of their areas played a primary role in pushing residents to accept CFAs.

The position of respondents has not changed towards the anti-regime opposition, 69% indicated no change in their opposition to the regime and 8% shifted from supporting the regime to supporting the opposition. Furthermore, 86% of respondents do not support a return to the uncontested rule of Assad, with only 14% of respondents approving a re-instatement of Assad rule.

Data show that public services and living conditions did not improve – and worsened in some areas – as a result of CFAs, hence implying, upon agreement, that CFAs alleviated hostilities but did not facilitate improved social conditions. 

The level of trust in the Assad’s ability to fulfill CFAs is low, as 63% of respondents believed the regime will violate CFAs in the future.

CFA areas did not even achieve a sense of safety and security, as 60% of respondents affirmed they still lived in fear and insecurity of Assad. Additionally, 58% of those polled indicated regime forces still operated as before and 15% said regime forces got worse.

The polling data is significant for three reasons: First, it is unprecedented direct access to Syrian residents and their political attitudes to the ongoing turmoil in the region. Second, the results outline characteristics of the protracted conflict between the military regime of Bashar Assad and the civilian based opposition. Lastly, the data shed some light – however limited – regarding the viability of an Assad-led state.

Click here to download the full paper: http://www.omrandirasat.org/sites/default/files/cease%20fire%20poll%20analysis_0.pdf#overlay-context=node/86