Latest Media Coverage of the New Report Series / “U.S. Grand Strategy: Destroying ISIS & Al Qaeda” Reports 1 & 2
By Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan, Katherine Zimmerman, Jennifer Cafarella, Harleen Gambhir, Christopher Kozak, and Hugo Spaulding
At an on-the record press breakfast, ISW and AEI’s Critical Threats Project laid out their first two reports (see below) in a new series titled: U.S. Grand Strategy: Destroying ISIS and Al Qaeda. Representatives of major broadcast, print, and online outlets met with the reports’ authors for a 90-minute discussion of the findings, their implications, and the next reports coming in this series. Of particular interest to the reporters was the fact that the al Qaeda affiliate in Syria — Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) — is actually benefiting from the focus on the anti-ISIS fight. As the West maintains its narrow attention on ISIS, al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate is working its way into Syrian opposition groups and society in a way that is more dangerous to Western interests than ISIS is now.Here’s some of the coverage so far and details about the reports below that.
“The possibility of a grand coalition: It concludes that any so-called grand coalition that includes the U.S., Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey is a “myth” and that a new, more pragmatic approach to working with other nations with different ultimate objectives is surely needed.”
“How can the U.S. make the best use of its brains and brawn against both IS and AQ in Iraq and Syria? The folks at the Institute for the Study of War have an idea or two, and they rolled them up in a new report, here. And while you’re at it, drop in on this new ISW report as well, which debunks the “myth of an anti-ISIS grand coalition.”
“The U.S. strategy against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is completely overlooking al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, the Nusra Front, and may be strengthening the affiliate….
“Another claim from the report is that ISIS is an existential threat to the U.S., despite contrary statements by the administration. The authors of the report argue that while Salafi-jihadist groups cannot militarily destroy the U.S., they can destroy the idea of the United States and the values it stands for.”
“Even more concerning, according to some analysts, is that U.S. policy is playing right into the group’s [JN’s] hands with its “excessive” focus on destroying Islamic State while at the same time providing only marginal support to moderate opposition groups….
“Jabhat al Nusra has weakened the moderate opposition and penetrated other Sunni opposition groups in Syria so thoroughly that it is poised to benefit most from the destruction of ISIS and the fall or transition of the Assad regime,” says the Institute for the Study of War in a report Wednesday. “The report goes on to warn that unless the U.S. finds a way to change course, the result could be exchanging one terrorist-led proto-state for another.”
********
This first report — Al Qaeda and ISIS: Existential Threats to the U.S. and Europe –examines America’s global grand strategic objectives as they relate to the threat from ISIS and al Qaeda. It considers the nature of those enemy groups in depth and in their global context.
This second report — Competing Visions for Syria and Iraq: The Myth of an Anti-ISIS Grand Coalition — will define American strategic objectives in Iraq and Syria, identify the minimum necessary conditions for ending the conflicts there, and compare U.S. objectives with those of Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia in order to understand actual convergences and divergences.
The key findings of the first report are:
- Salafi-jihadi military organizations, particularly ISIS and al Qaeda, are the greatest threat to the security and values of American and European citizens.
- Syrian al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al Nusra poses one of the most significant long-term threats of any Salafi-jihadi group.
- Current counter-ISIS and -al Qaeda policies do not ensure the safety of the American people or the homeland.
The key findings of the second report are:
- The U.S. must 1) destroy enemy groups; 2) end the communal, sectarian civil wars; 3) set conditions to prevent the reconstitution of enemy groups; and 4) extricate Iraq and Syria from regional and global conflicts.
- Ongoing international negotiations within the Vienna Framework are bypassing essential requirements for long-term success in Syria.
- The superficial convergence of Iranian, Russian, Turkish, and Saudi strategic objectives with those of the U.S. on ISIS as a threat masks significant divergences that will undermine U.S. security requirements.