Following Earthquake In Syria, Arab Rapprochement With Assad Regime Gains Momentum: ‘A Consensus Is Forming That Isolating Syria Is No Longer Helpful’
MESOP MIDEAST WATCH MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 1682
By: O. Peri MEMRI REPORTS Introduction 9.3.23
The earthquake that struck southeast Turkey and northwest Syria in early February 2023 accelerated the rapprochement which began several years ago between the Arab countries and the Assad regime, and appears to have provided the Arab leaders with an excellent opportunity to “unveil” their new and more lenient approach toward this regime. As part of this approach, in the weeks since the earthquake, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has received phone calls from many Arab leaders expressing their condolences over the disaster as well as their willingness to provide aid. In some cases, this was the first contact between the sides since the outbreak of the Syria crisis in 2011. Moreover, the foreign ministers of the UAE, Jordan, and Egypt, and officials from other Arab countries, visited Damascus after the quake. Assad himself made an official visit to Oman on February 20, and a visit to the UAE in the near future is reportedly on the cards as well.
Saudi Arabia, which throughout the war has been considered one of the chief opponents of the Assad regime, is also showing signs of a shift in attitude. For the first time since the start of the war, Saudi planes carrying aid landed at Syrian airports controlled by the regime. Furthermore, during the recent Security Conference in Munich, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan, who is reportedly scheduled to visit Damascus in the near future, made startling statements about the Syrian regime. He said that the Arabs are coming to a consensus that isolating Syria is not helpful, and that “there will have to be dialogue with the government in Damascus at some stage,” in order to resolve the main humanitarian problems attending the Syria crisis.
Additionally, in recent days there have been reports in the Arab press about an initiative to restore Syria’s relations with the Arab world. The initiative was conceived several months ago, but the quake apparently provided an opportunity to reveal and promote it. According to the reports, as part of this initiative the Arab states have presented the Syrian regime with a series of demands. These demands include Syria’s weakening of its relationship with Iran and working against the Iranian military presence in Syria, especially on the border with Jordan; launching serious negotiations with the Syrian opposition to reach a political solution for the crisis; and guaranteeing the safe return of the Syrian refugees to their homes. In return, the Arab countries are offering to strengthen their relations with the Syrian regime and to provide it with financial and humanitarian aid. Some reports also state that if the initiative proceeds as planned, Syria may participate in the next Arab League summit, slated to take place in Riyadh later this year, for the first time since its membership in this organization was suspended in 2011.
As noted, the rapprochement between Syria and the Arab countries began several months before the earthquake, with the prominent involvement of the UAE, which in December 2018 officially renewed its relations with the Assad regime. Jordan, Syria’s neighbor to the south, has also been conspicuously involved in the efforts to bring Syria back into the Arab fold, in the belief that stability in Syria and good Arab relations with it will help to secure Jordan’s border against the threat currently posed by the Iranian military presence in Syria. The UAE’s and Jordan’s contacts with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, with an eye to promoting this goal, were initially kept under the radar, but the earthquake, which necessitates the provision of aid to Syria, provided an opportunity to advance them more openly.
Amidst these developments, the one Arab country that is overtly maintaining its hostile stance toward the Syrian regime is Qatar, which is also the only Arab country still supporting the Syrian opposition and helping the residents of the Syrian provinces that are not under the regime’s control. Following the earthquake, Qatari Foreign Minister Majed Al-Ansari said that Qatar’s position regarding the Syrian regime had not changed and that the circumstances that led to Syria’s suspension from the Arab League still obtain. Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad said at the opening of the 5th United Nations Conference on the Least Developed Countries, on March 5, that it was “wrong to abuse the humanitarian aid [delivered to the earthquake victims] for political purposes,” in an oblique reference to the Assad regime.
The Syrian regime used the Arab openness toward it in order to spread propaganda that its isolation in the region and the world is ending, while the Syrian opposition strongly condemned the Arab rapprochement with the regime.
Another factor that apparently facilitated this rapprochement is the U.S. suspension, for a period of 180 days, any sanctions on the regime that affect the provision of humanitarian aid to the earthquake victims. Later, Britain and the EU also announced that following the earthquake they too would ease sanctions on Syria for a period of 180 days. European countries, too, renewed their contact with the Syrian regime after the quake in order to deliver aid. A plane sent by the Norwegian Red Cross, which arrived at the Damascus international airport on February 22, was the first European aircraft to land in Syria in 12 years. Syrian Red Crescent head Khaled Hboubati called this “the first step toward breaking the siege” on Syria. The next day, a plane sent by the German Red Cross arrived, and on February 26 a plane carrying aid from several EU countries also landed.
It should be noted that even prior to the earthquake, there were signs of rapprochement between Turkey and the Syrian regime; this peaked on December 28, 2022 with a Russia-sponsored meeting in Moscow between Syrian Defense Minister ‘Ali Mahmoud ‘Abbas and his Turkish and Russian counterparts Hulusi Akar and Sergei Shoigu. Following the meeting – the first of its kind since the severing of Syria-Turkey diplomatic relations in 2012 – Turkish and Russian officials expressed their hope that there would be subsequent meetings between the countries’ foreign ministers and even their presidents. However, due to significant disputes between Turkey and the Syrian regime, especially regarding Turkey’s military presence in northern Syria and its support for the Syrian rebels there, the warming of relations between the two countries was suspended.
This report reviews the recent warming of relations between the Arab countries and the Syrian regime.
Rapprochement Between Arab Countries And Assad Regime, Reports On Initiative To Bring Syria Back To Arab Fold
As stated, the earthquake that struck parts of Turkey and Syria on February 6 gave a boost to the process, already underway, of Arab rapprochement with the Syrian regime, leading Arab leaders to contact their Syrian counterparts for the first time following years of silence. On the day of the quake, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad spoke on the phone with the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin ‘Issa Al-Khalifa. This was the first phone call between them since the outbreak of the Syrian crisis, although Bahrain had already reopened its embassy in Syria in late 2018. On the same day, Assad also spoke on the phone with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed.
On February 7, Assad spoke with Egyptian President ‘Abd Al-Fattah Al-Sisi for the first time since the latter came to power in 2014. Two days later, on February 9, Tunisia announced that it would strengthen diplomatic ties with Syria. On February 12, UAE Foreign Minister ‘Abdullah bin Zayed visited Damascus and met with President Assad; on February 15, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Al-Safadi, who in the past maintained a hardline stance against the Syrian regime, made his first visit to Damascus since 2011 and met with Assad and with his foreign minister Al-Miqdad.
Several days later, on February 27, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry came to Damascus and met with Assad and Miqdad. This, too, was the first visit by an Egyptian official there since 2011. The online daily Raialyoum.com posited that Shoukry’s visit had been coordinated in advance with Saudi Arabia, and that Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan would also make a visit to Syria soon, to pave the way for Syria’s participation in the Arab League summit in Riyadh later this year. The editor of the Egyptian state daily Al-Ahram, Ashraf Al-‘Ashry, confirmed that Egypt had discussed Al-Shoukry’s visit to Damascus with several Arab and Gulf countries, with an eye to normalizing the Arabs’ relations with the Syrian regime and readmitting Syria to the Arab League, or at least obtaining recognition of the Syrian regime at the next Arab League summit. He stated that Shoukry had presented the Gulf States’ terms for welcoming Syria back to the Arab fold, chiefly a demand to weaken its relations with Iran.