MESOP MIDEAST INTEL BY MEIR AMIT CENTER / ISRAEL – Spotlight on Iran

May 26, 2022 – June 9, 2022 Editor: Dr. Raz Zimmtlinkedin
Overview
  • The chairman of the Majlis’ National Security Committee denied the reports concerning the withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria and their substitution by Iranian-backed forces. In an interview, the senior Iranian official stated that Russia and Iran are maintaining their presence in Syria based on an invitation of Syria’s recognized government, and none of the two is taking the place of the other.
  • Iranian media and senior officials in Tehran warned of a possible Turkish military operation in northern Syria. The spokesman of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared that Iran opposes any military action in Syria and Iraq that violates the sovereignty and territorial integrity of those counties.
  • A Syrian pro-opposition outlet reported about the reinforcement of pro-Iranian militias along the Jordan-Syrian border, aiming to secure the drug and weapon smuggling routes from Syria to Jordan. The report was published following clashes between Jordanian security services and smugglers of drugs and weaponry attempting to cross from Syria.
  • The chairman of the Joint Iranian-Syrian Chamber of Commerce reported at the start of a conference concerning economic development and cooperation between the two countries, that the volume of Iranian exports to Syria has doubled over the past year. Meanwhile, the secretary of the Iranian Supreme Committee for Free Trade Zones announced that Iran and Syria intent to establish a joint free trade zone of the two countries.
  • The Iranian president spoke on the phone with the prime minister of Iraq and welcomed the decision of the Iraqi parliament to ban normalization with Israel. He called on the Iraqi prime minister to accelerate the project of laying the railway connecting southwestern Iran to southern Iraq.
  • The Secretary General of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziad al-Nakhleh, stated in an interview on the occasion of the 33rd anniversary of the passing of the leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, that the Islamic Revolution changed the balance of power in the region, and gave the people of the region, and particularly the Palestinians, greater courage to resist the policies of the United States and Israel.
  • In mid-June, a delegation of the Iranian embassy to Kabul visited Kandahar Province in southern Afghanistan and met with Taliban officials based in the province. The two sides discussed bilateral relations and expanding trade ties. In addition, the delegation paid a visit to eastern Afghanistan, the first such visit since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan.
Iranian Involvement in Syria
  • The Chairman of the Majlis’ National Security Council, Vahid Jalalzadeh, stated in an interview to the Iranian Arabic-language TV station, al-Alam (June 1), that the reports concerning Iranian forces substituting Russian soldiers who had withdrawn from Syria following the war in Ukraine are baseless. He claimed that Russia and Iran are present in Syria at the invitation of its legitimate government, and that none of the two is taking the place of the other. He added that Iran came to the assistance of the “resistance front” and the government of Syria, and as long as Syria is interested in the Iranian presence, Iran welcomes this role. Addressing the visit of Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, to Tehran in May, Jalalzadeh stated that the visit was intended to secure the interests of both countries in all spheres, including the economic one, for example by addressing challenges facing the movement of goods from Iran to Syria through the ground route passing in Iraq.
  • On May 26, the Iranian Ambassador to Damascus, Mehdi Sobhani, met with the Syrian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Faisal Mekdad. In the meeting, the two officials discussed developments in the regional and international arenas, and bilateral cooperation (ILNA, May 26).
  • The Spokesman of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Saeed Khatibzadeh, condemned the ongoing Turkish military activity in the border areas of Syria and Iraq. In response to a question concerning Turkish military actions in northern Syria and Iraq, Khatibzadeh stated that Iran opposes all military actions and use of force in Syria and Iraq, and sees them as a violation of those countries’ territorial integrity and national sovereignty. He added that Iran understands Turkey’s security concerns, but insists that the only way to solve them is through negotiations and abiding by agreements reached between Turkey and its neighbors, as well as agreements reached through the Astana negotiations process concerning the war in Syria (Tasnim, May 28). Meanwhile, the website Mashregh News, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), warned (May 30) of the consequences of expanding Turkish military action in northern Syria. The commentary argued that Turkey is using the presence of Kurdish militias in northern Syria as an excuse to continue occupying territories in Syria, to later use as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Syria concerning the settlement of the war.
  • A Syrian pro-opposition website specializing in southern Syria reported that hundreds of Lebanese Hezbollah militants, Afghan Fatemiyoun Brigade fighters operating under IRGC control, and soldiers in the 4th Division of the Syrian Army, have deployed in recent days along the Syrian-Jordanian border. According to this report, the reinforcement of pro-Iranian forces is intended to secure the routes used for smuggling drugs and weapons from Syria to Jordan. Meanwhile, Jordan’s official news agency reported about clashes that erupted in recent days between Jordanian security services and smugglers attempting to bring in drugs and weapons into Jordan, during which one smuggler was killed (Tajamu’ Ahrar Horan, June 2).
  • On June 6, Saeed Mohammad, an adviser to the president of Iran, and the Secretary of the Iranian Supreme Council for Trade and Economic Free Zones, met in Tehran with the Executive Director of the Syrian Organization for Free Trade Zones, Iyad Kusa. The two officials discussed expanding economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. The Iranian official remarked that Tehran and Damascus intend to establish a shared free trade zone. The Syrian official declared that there is nothing preventing the establishment of a free trade zone, and that Syria is eager for any cooperation in this sphere (Mehr, June 6).
  •  On May 28, the Syrian Minister of Trade, Ziad Sabbagh, met with the Adviser to the Deputy President of Iran and the Secretary of the Office for Expanding Economic Ties between Syria and Iran, Abbas Akbari. The Syrian minister asserted that coordination between the two countries is crucial for winning the economic war waged against them and for overcoming the sanctions imposed on the “axis of resistance” countries. In the meeting, the two discussed promoting joint economic projects and the participation of Iranian companies in Syria’s reconstruction (Tasnim, May 28).
  • Speaking at a conference for economic developments and cooperation in Iran and Syria held in Tehran, Kivan Kashefi, the Chairman of the Joint Iranian-Syrian Chamber of Commerce, reported that the volume of Iranian exports to Syria doubled over the past year. The Syrian Ambassador to Iran, Shafiq Dayoub, declared during the conference that the Syrian government is interested in bolstering economic cooperation with Iran, and is willing to remove any obstacles facing the Iranian private sector in their business dealings in Syria. He remarked that although the volume of trade between the two countries doubled in the past year, it has not yet achieved the desired target (IRNA, May 30).
  • On May 29, the Iranian Ambassador to Syria, Mehdi Sobhani, visited a flour mill in the town of Salhab, northwest of Hama, which is being constructed by an Iranian company. The statement of the Iranian embassy stated that the mill will be able to produce 300 tonnes of flour daily, and that 90 percent of the construction process has been completed (IRNA, May 29).
Iranian Involvement in Iraq
  • On May 29, the President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, spoke on the phone with the Prime Minister of Iraq, Mustafa al-Kazimi. Raisi called for the speedy formation of a new government in Baghdad and praised the decision of the Iraqi parliament to ban normalization with Israel. In addition, the two officials discussed the unusually frequent sandstorms that have hit Iran and Iraq recently, and the need for bilateral cooperation on this matter. Raisi also stressed the need to accelerate the project of laying the railway connecting Shalamcheh in southwestern Iran with Basra in southern Iraq, and asked the Iraqi prime minister to facilitate the visit of Iranian pilgrims to Karbala on the occasion of Arbaeen, marking the end of the 40 days of mourning over the death of the Shia Imam Hussein Bin Ali (ISNA, May 29).
  • Mohammad Kazem Al-e Sadegh, the Iranian Ambassador to Baghdad, welcomed the decision of the Iraqi parliament banning normalization with Israel or maintaining any ties with is. On his Twitter account, the ambassador wrote (May 26) that he congratulates the members of parliament for passing this law, which according to him, represents a new and dignified link in the chain of proud and brave decisions of the Iraqi people concerning crucial matters facing the Islamic nation.
  • On June 1, the Iranian Ambassador to Baghdad, Mohammad Kazem Al-e Sadegh met with the Iraqi Minister of Industry, Manhal al-Khabbaz. In the meeting, the two discussed bilateral relations and the possibility of expanding industrial ties between the two nations (ISNA, June 1).
  •  On June 6, the Iranian Ambassador to Iraq, Mohammad Kazem Al-e Sadegh met with the Governor of the Iraqi Central Bank, Mustafa Ghaleb, and discussed cooperation between the two nations in the banking sectors, the matter of the Iraqi debt to Iran for purchased electricity and gas, challenges facing Iranian companies exporting technical and engineering services to Iraq, and the operation of branches of Iranian banks in Iraq (ISNA, June 6).
Iranian Involvement in the Palestinian Arena
  • The Spokesman of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Saeed Khatibzadeh, addressed the events of Jerusalem Day held on May 29 and condemned the “defiling of the holiness of the al-Aqsa Mosque by the racist Zionists and the attack of the occupiers of Jerusalem on the residents and defenders of Jerusalem.” Khatibzadeh praised the “resilient stance and resistance” of the Palestinians, warned of “provocations by the Zionists,” and called on Muslim countries to unite in defending Jerusalem and the struggle against the “Zionist Apartheid regime.” Additionally, the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs called on international organizations to fulfil their legal obligation to prevent the ongoing Israeli aggression against the Palestinian people. He declared that the “resistance front” will not fail in defending the al-Aqsa Mosque and in the struggle against the “terrorist actions of the fake regime of Israel.” (ISNA, May 30)
  • The Secretary General of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziad al-Nakhleh, declared in a speech marking the 33rd anniversary of the death of the leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, that the Islamic Republic of Iran has always supported the resistance of the Palestinian people. He averred that the Islamic Revolution in Iran upended the regional balance of power and gave the people of the region, and particularly the Palestinians, greater courage to resist the policies of the United States and the “occupier Zionist regime,” which is the central enemy of the Islamic and Arab nation (Mehr, June 3).
  •  In an interview to the Iranian news website Jamaran (June 2), the Representative of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Iran, Nasser Abu Sharif, stated that the Islamic Revolution in Iran has had a great and deep impact on the entire region, particularly on the Palestinian cause. In an interview on the occasion of the anniversary of the passing of the leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, Abu Sharif argued that Khomeini’s goal was for all the people of the region and the Islamic nation to understand that the Zionists and Israel are the enemies of the region and the nation who want to steal the resources of the area and prevent it from progressing. Therefore, they are not merely enemies of Palestine, but of Iran, the Arab world and the Islamic one as well. He remarked that the current Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, is continuing in the path of the leader of the Islamic Revolution.
Iranian Involvement in Afghanistan
  • On May 29, the Deputy Iranian Ambassador to Kabul, Seyyed Hassan Mortazavi, met with the Minister on Refugee Affairs of the Taliban government, Khalil al-Rahman Haqqani, and discussed the visit of a Taliban delegation to Tehran to discuss the problems facing Afghan refugees in Iran. The Iranian deputy ambassador remarked that in light of the conditions affecting Afghanistan in recent months, Iran has had to absorb a large number of Afghan refugees, and that this necessitates coordination with the Taliban government to address the problems of those refugees (Fars, May 30).
  • A delegation of the Iranian embassy in Kabul headed by the Deputy Ambassador, Seyyed Hassan Mortazevi, and the Iranian Consul General to Kandahar, Alireza Hajizadeh, visited Kandahar in southern Afghanistan and met with the Governor of the Province, Haji Mohammad Yousif Wafa, and the official in charge of foreign relations in the province, Maulavi Abdul Shukor Haqqani. The members of the delegation stressed Iran’s ongoing support for Afghanistan and discussed with the provincial Taliban officials the expansion of trade and economic ties between the two countries. The Iranian deputy ambassador remarked that Afghanistan’s security serves Iranian national security, and that Tehran supports maintaining peace and stability in the country (Fars, June 5).
  • Additionally, an Iranian diplomatic delegation headed by the deputy ambassador to Kabul paid a visit to Khost Province in eastern Afghanistan. This is the first visit of an Iranian delegation to eastern Afghanistan since the Taliban’s takeover of the country. The Tasnim news agency reported that the visit to Khost was conducted despite the fact that eastern Afghanistan is not of great importance to Iran, thus, this points to Tehran adopting a more serious and comprehensive approach with regards to Afghanistan (Tasnim, June 6).

MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: IRAN BATTLES ON MULTIPLE FRONTS
Bottom Line Up Front: 8.6.22
  • A new cycle of attacks and responses between Iran and its adversaries threatens regional stability and the potential revival of the 2015 multilateral Iran nuclear agreement.
  • Israel has demonstrated a remarkable ability to execute operations targeting Iranian officials within Iran.
  • Iranian leaders appear to have decided to retaliate against the U.S. as a response to American efforts to enforce sanctions against Iran.
  • Iran continues to support attacks on U.S. personnel in Iraq to try to reduce U.S. influence there.
A year of dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and a spring-summer ceasefire in Yemen, raised hopes in the international community that a repeat of past cycles of Iran-related violence in the Persian Gulf region could be avoided. As of early June, however, sparring between Iran and its rivals has picked up, further destabilizing already unsettled global energy markets and harming prospects for dialogue and negotiation on regional flashpoints, like the conflict in Yemen. There does not appear to be any connection between the recent hostilities and the ongoing protests inside Iran. For weeks, Iranian officials have been reacting to protests linked to economic conditions and, most recently, the collapse of a tower in Abadan, in southwestern Iran, which killed more than 40 people.

Perhaps the most significant threat to regional stability comes in the form of a series of apparent Israeli special operations inside Iran, directed against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iranian military projects in Iran. On May 22, Hassan Sayad Khodayari, an officer of the IRGC’s Qods Force, which arms and trains pro-Iranian movements in the region, was assassinated in Tehran, the IRGC announced. Tehran acknowledged that he was part of the Qods Force contingent operating in Syria in support of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The attack was reminiscent of a November 2020 attack on an Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. On May 25, in a more ambitious operation also attributed to Israel, short-range quadcopter drones launched from well within Iran’s borders struck the sprawling Parchin facility, which is linked to Iran’s armed drone program. Israel and the United States suspect Iran of having conducted nuclear weapons research at Parchin. Iranian officials have consistently denied this, arguing that it is a non-nuclear military facility, and therefore off-limits to the International Atomic Energy Agency inspections process established by the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The attacks demonstrate Israel’s significant capacity to recruit and deploy agents within Iran to carry out sophisticated attacks inside the country. However, because of Iran’s sensitivity about international access to Parchin, the May strike will certainly further complicate the stalled multilateral talks to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement. Israeli leaders have long argued that, even if the nuclear agreement is revived, Iran has nuclear ambitions over the long term and that the international community should be prepared to use any means necessary to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.

At the end of May, Iranian leaders evidently decided to demonstrate that the country is positioned to project power and defend its interests, even if they did not directly retaliate against Israel. On May 27, the IRGC stated that is naval forces had seized two Greek oil tankers off of Iran’s Persian Gulf coast. The capture was characterized as a direct response to Greece’s role in the U.S. seizure of crude oil from Iranian-flagged tanker Lana (formerly Pegas) in April. The Lana was among five vessels designated by Washington, two days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for sanctions against Promsvyazbank—a bank viewed as critical to Russia’s defense sector. The Greek seizure of the Lana appeared to be an effort to enforce multilateral sanctions against Russia—and not specifically enforcement of U.S.-led sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. Iran-related energy sanctions have generally been enforced by financial and trade penalties, rather than through seizures of ships or their cargo. Still, the Iranian capture of the Greek ships—and Tehran’s confiscation of their oil cargo—appear to represent an escalation by Tehran against U.S. economic pressure. Tehran evidently calculates that its actions can deter the United States from more aggressively enforcing sanctions against Iran should negotiations to restore the 2015 multilateral nuclear deal break down entirely.

Tehran sought to reinforce its message to the United States by following up the tanker seizure with the latest in a series of attacks targeting U.S. personnel in Iraq. Iranian leaders have never wavered from their vow to avenge the January 2020 killing of legendary Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani by driving all U.S. military personnel out of Iraq. On May 30, an Iraqi group calling itself the “International Resistance” (almost certainly an offshoot of Iran’s main Iraqi proxy, Kata’ib Hezbollah) fired five Grad rockets at Ain al-Asad airbase in Iraq’s western Anbar province. Although the rockets impacted close to where U.S. servicemembers are housed, only minor damage was reported, and no casualties occurred. Many of the 2,500 U.S. forces still in Iraq are deployed at al-Asad, which was the epicenter of the January 2020 Iranian long-range ballistic missile strike that represented Tehran’s retaliation for the Soleimani killing. Iranian-backed Shia militia groups have also attacked Iraqi politicians, including incumbent Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who want U.S. troops to remain in Iraq advising government forces in the fight against Islamic State. Recent Iranian provocations have not directly accomplished any clear strategic goals; however, Tehran’s willingness to take aggressive action has caused the United States, Israel, and the Gulf states to reconsider how they seek to apply pressure to the Iranian regime. Deterring Iran’s adversaries appears to be a goal that Iranian leaders see as attainable.

 

MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: UN Nuclear Agency Weighs Censure of Iran for Undeclared Uranium Sites
The United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (UK) submitted a draft resolution (Reuters) condemning Iran’s lack of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the organization’s board. The board will vote on the resolution this week as it meets in Austria.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said Iran has not provided “technically credible” explanations (CNN) for nuclear activities at three undeclared sites and is weeks away from having a “significant quantity of enriched uranium.” Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign ministry said anyone pushing for a censure would “be responsible for the consequences.” Talks on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal have not been held since March.

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MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: Irans Intelligence Minister: Enemies Focus on Popular Protests, Assassinations

6 June, 2022 – Asharq Al-Awsat

Iran’s Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib has said that his country is facing two enemy strategies centered around popular protests and assassinations.

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MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: Iranischer Wissenschaftler unter unklaren Umständen tot aufgefunden – Berichte

Ayoob Entezari sagte, er habe an der Entwicklung von Raketen und Drohnen im Forschungs- und Entwicklungszentrum gearbeitet, bevor er diese Woche starb, wobei einige sagten, dass eine Lebensmittelvergiftung die Ursache sei

TIMES OF ISRAEL  4.6.22

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MESOP MIDEAST WATCH MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 9994

Iranian TV Report About Top-Secret Underground UAV Base Showcases Drone Capabilities: In Today’s Hybrid Wars, Drones And Missiles Can Determine The Winner

On May 28, 2022, Channel 1 (Iran) aired a report about a “top-secret” UAV base reportedly located hundreds of meters underground somewhere in the Zagros Mountains.

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MESOP MIDEAST WATCH:Bennett bestätigt, dass klassifizierte IAEA-Dokumente vom Iran gestohlen wurden

LAHAV HARKOV JERUSALEM POST  MAI 31, 2022

Der Iran benutzte gestohlene Dokumente, um die Internationale Atomenergiebehörde zu täuschen, und belügt weiterhin die Welt, warnte Premierminister Naftali Bennett am Dienstag vor der Vorstandssitzung der UN-Atombehörde nächste Woche.

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MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: Suicide drones launched from inside Iran said to have hit Parchin military site

New York Times reports that Tehran views deadly incident as an attack, noting it fits pattern of alleged past Israeli strikes in Iran and Lebanon

TIMES OF ISRAEL 27 May 2022  Sat image of the military complex at Parchin, Iran.

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MESOP MIDEAST INTEL BY MEIR AMIT CENTER/ISRAEL – Spotlight on Iran

May 12, 2022 – May 26, 2022Editor: Dr. Raz Zimmttwitterlinkedin
Overview
  • Senior Iranian officials implicitly accused Israel and the United States of assassinating the senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) office, Hassan Sayyad Khodaei, on May 22 in Tehran, and vowed revenge.
  • The spokesperson of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) exposed a route used to smuggle parts of advanced weaponry from Iran to Hezbollah, overseen by Seyyed Reda Safi al-Din, the son of Seyyed Hisham Safi al-Din, the Chairman of Hezbollah’s Executive Council.
  • Iranian responses to the outcome of the parliamentary elections in Lebanon clearly displayed an attempt to downplay the weakening of the pro-Hezbollah camp and bolstering of its Lebanese opponents. The spokesman of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared that Iran does not interfere in domestic Lebanese politics. Media outlets affiliated with the conservative faction in Iran rejected the analysis by Western media outlets that Hezbollah was dealt a major blow in the elections and stressed that the opponents of the organization also do not possess a majority to form a government.
  • The news website al-Araby al-Jadid reported on a new Iranian mediation initiative led by the incoming Iranian ambassador to Baghdad, aimed at facilitating the formation of a new government in Iraq. According to this report, Iranian officials are set to conduct meetings with the major political blocs in Iraq to advance an agreement between the Sadrist Current and the pro-Iranian Shia parties.
  • Economic and cultural Iranian activity in the Middle East: A senior Iranian energy official paid a visit to Syria and met with Syrian officials concerning expanding cooperation between the two countries in the sectors of energy and electricity; the Damascus Chamber of Industry and the Joint Iranian-Syrian Chamber of Commerce signed a memorandum of understanding concerning the expansion of cooperation in the sectors of industry and finance; the deputy minister of Islamic Guidance used the International Book Fair in Tehran to promote cultural and literary cooperation with Syria; and a memorandum of understanding was signed between the communication authorities of Iraq and Iran.
Israel – Iran
  • Iranian officials implicitly accused Israel and the United States of assassinating the senior IRGC officer, Hassan Sayyad Khodaei, on May 22 in Tehran, and vowed to avenge his death. The New York Times reported that Israel had confirmed to the United States that it was responsible for the assassination. According to the report he has been involved in the past two years in terrorist attacks against Israelis, Europeans and Americans around the world (The New York Times, May 25, 2022).
  • Upon his departure to a visit to Oman, the President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, declared that the vengeance for the blood of the senior Iranian official is inevitable. He remarked that the hands of “global arrogance” [a term used to describe the West, and particularly the United States] are behind the killing, and that those who were defeated by the defenders of the holy [Shia] shrines in Syria [implying, Israel and the United States] and they are demonstrating their desperation through such actions (Fars, May 23). The Spokesman of the IRGC, Ramazan Sharif, accused the intelligence services of “the global hegemonic Zionist regime” of carrying out the assassination, and declared that his killing will only increase the determination of the IRGC to defend the security and national might of Iran, and to struggle against its enemies, chief among them “the Zionist regime” and “the terrorist American regime” (Tasnim, May 23).
Iranian Involvement in Syria and Lebanon
  • On May 20, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesperson revealed a smuggling operation of advanced military components from Iran to Hezbollah overseen by Seyyed Reda Said al-Din, the son of Seyyed Hisham Safi al-Din, the Chairman of Hezbollah’s Executive Council. The son of the senior official is married to Zainab Soleimani, the daughter of the former Commander of the IRGC’s Qods Force, Qasem Soleimani, and has been exploiting Lebanese infrastructure to facilitate the smuggling of weaponry from Iran to Hezbollah. The IDF spokesperson added that Safi al-Din’s son is using his frequent visits to Iran to coordinate the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah, using Hezbollah militants, who bring the military components on board civilian flights from Tehran to a European country, and from there on civilian flights to Damascus or Beirut.
  • In a first official response following the announcement of results of the parliamentary elections in Lebanon, the Spokesman of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Saeed Khatibzadeh, claimed in his weekly press conference that Iran has always stood on the side of the Lebanese people and has not interfered in domestic Lebanese politics. He remarked that the Lebanese people are the ones who decide on issues related to their country, and that all countries ought to respect the people’s decision, and Iran too respects this decision (IRNA, May 16).
  • Iranian media outlets affiliated with the conservative camp rejected the analysis dominating Western media following the elections that Hezbollah had suffered a major blow. A commentary published by the newspaper Kayhan (May 18) claimed that Hezbollah’s political opponents failed in their efforts to harm the status of the “resistance” and its supporters. Hezbollah has been able to maintain its social and political power while currents affiliated with the West and Saudi Arabia, which supported the protests launched on October 17, 2019, failed to achieve significant achievements. The Mehr news agency reported about the “failure of the psychological campaign against Hezbollah in the elections.” A commentary published by the agency (May 18) argued that the “resistance” camp did lose the majority it enjoyed in parliament, but this does not mean that its opponents now have the majority required to form a government. Therefore, there is no basis for the claim concerning “Hezbollah’s electoral defeat,” although the elections’ results do complicate the situation in Lebanon, particularly in light of the growing strength of the Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea’s anti-Hezbollah party.
  • The website Nour News, which is associated with the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, claimed in a commentary published following the announcement of the election results (May 20) that none of the political currents in Lebanon has been able to gain a parliamentary majority and make decision on its own. The commentary assessed that the selection of a prime minister will encounter a great deal of difficulties, and that Lebanese is facing a new political crisis. According to the website “the American-Saudi axis” has been trying to use the election results to create an internal crisis within Hezbollah and sow discord within the “resistance” camp, which has become the most influential current in the Middle East in recent years.
  • The Iranian Ambassador to Syria, Mehdi Sobhani, called for expanding economic activity between Tehran and Damascus. He made the statement at the signing ceremony of a memorandum of understanding concerning the expansion of cooperation in the sectors of industry and finances, signed by the Damascus Chamber of Industry and the Iranian-Syrian Joint Chamber of Commerce. The memorandum of understanding concerned the expansion of exports of Syrian products to markets in Iran, planning for establishing permanent fairs displaying Syrian products in Iran, as well as holding conferences for industrialists from both countries. The Iranian ambassador expressed Tehran’s determination to expand its economic and trade ties with the Syrian private sector and remarked that the Iranian embassy in Syria is investing a great deal of effort in overcoming the challenges faced by industrialists from both countries. The Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Damascus Chamber of Industry, Samer al-Debs, called on Iranian traders to establish strategic industrial projects in Syria. The Chairman of the Joint Chamber of Commerce, Fahd Darwish, declared that the signed memorandum of understanding aims to expand cooperation between the two chambers and encourage traders, capitalists, and industrialists from both countries to carry out joint investments in various sectors. He announced that a trade and industrial delegation from Syria will soon visit Iran (ISNA, May 17).
  • In mid-May, the Executive Director of the Iranian Electrical Power Equipment Manufacturing and Provision Company (SATKAB), Mojtaba Akbari, arrived for a visit in Syria, representing the Iranian Ministry of Energy. He discussed with Syrian official the expansion of cooperation between the two countries in the sectors of energy and electricity. In the meeting with the Iranian Ambassador to Syria, Mehdi Sobhani, the two discussed the possibility of advancing Iranian projects in the sectors of energy, and the activity of Iranian companies in Syria in the sectors of water and electricity, and promotion of Iranian investments in Syria. In his meeting with the Syrian Minister of Electricity, Ghasan al-Zamil, Akbari stated that the shortage of energy, and specifically electricity, experienced by Syria, provides opportunities for state and private companies in Iran to provide the needs of Syria in this sphere. He invited the Syrian minister to visit Iranian factories manufacturing electrical equipment (ILNA, May 20).
  • On May 17, Yaser Ahmadvand, the Deputy Minister of Islamic Guidance who is also serving as the Director of the International Book Fair currently held in Tehran, met with the Director of the Arab Writers Association of Syria, Ibrahim Hourani, and with the Director of Publishers in Syria, Haytham al-Hafez, and called for bolstering Iran’s cultural presence in Syria. He claimed that the Iranian presence in Syria is “a cultural presence and not an economic or a military one” and that media exposure and cultural cooperation should be expanded between the two nations. The Iranian deputy minister added that there are many opportunities for cultural-literary cooperation between the two countries, and that Iran is interested in increasing the number of exchange visits of Syrian and Iranian publishers and authors, and also augment the number of Iranian authors published in Syria, which may serve as a bridge between Iran and the entire Arab world (IBNA, May 17).
Iranian Involvement in Iraq
  • On May 17, the incoming Iranian Ambassador to Iraq, Mohammad Kazem Al-e Sadegh, presented his letter of credence to the President of Iraq, Barham Salih. In his meeting with the Iraqi president, the ambassador stressed the need to expand political and economic ties between the two countries, and to bolster international and regional cooperation in the war on terror. On May 16, the incoming ambassador met with the Iraqi Minister of Foreign Affairs, Fuad Hussein, and discussed bilateral ties. The ambassador called for the Joint Political Committee of Iran and Iraq to hold a meeting in the near future at the level of deputy foreign ministers. Additionally, the ambassador asked Iraqi authorities to cooperate in organizing the pilgrimage of Iranians to Arbaeen, marking the end of the 40 days of mourning over the death of Shia Imam Hussein Ibn Ali. The ceremonies are set to be held in Karbala, Iraq, in September 2022 (IRNA, May 17).
  • The Qatari news website al-Araby al-Jadid reported (May 20) based on three Iraqi political sources, about a new Iranian mediation initiative led by the incoming Iranian Ambassador to Baghdad, Mohammad Al-e Sadegh, intended to reduce tensions between the various political currents in Iraq and facilitate the formation of a new government in Iraq. According to this report, as part of the new Iranian initiative, Iranian officials are set to meet separately with the leaders of the major political blocs in Iraq in an effort to restart talks between them concerning government formation, which came to a halt a few weeks ago. Through this initiative, Iran is hoping to further understandings between the Sadrist Current led by Muqtada Sadr and the Coordination Framework (the bloc of pro-Iranian Shia parties). According to the report, in recent days, the Iranian ambassador to Baghdad held a series of meetings and phone calls with senior Iraqi politicians (Shia, Sunni and Kurds), utilizing his command of the Arabic language, his diplomatic experience, and his ties with the Sadrist Current, which are better than those his predecessor, the departing Ambassador Iraj Masjedi, possessed with the largest bloc in the Iraqi parliament. A member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) assessed in an interview to al-Araby al-Jadeed that the chances of success of the Iranian mediation effort are close to zero, given the position of Muqtada al-Sadr, who rejects the participation of Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law party in the government, and the waning influence of Iran over Iraq’s political scene following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani.
  • On May 22, Ali Fahim Danesh, the Advisor to the President of Iran and Director for International Affairs at the Iranian Broadcasting Authority, signed a memorandum of understanding with the Executive Director of the Board of Governors of Iraq’s Communications Authority, Nabil Jasim Mohammad. According to the senior Iranian official, the memorandum aims to facilitate expanding the cooperation between the communication authorities in both countries in various media spheres, including production of TV series and movies, and technical cooperation (YJC.Ir, May 22).
Iranian Involvement in the Palestinian Arena
  • On May 15, the Spokesman of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Saeed Khatibzadeh, paid a visit to the Palestinian embassy in Tehran and signed a book of condolences, which was presented at the embassy to commemorate the Palestinian al-Jazeera journalist, Shirin Abou Aqleh, who was killed on May 11 in Jenin. Khatibzadeh condemned the killing, blamed Israel for it, and sent his condolences to her family and the Palestinian people (website of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, May 15).

MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: IRAN EXPANDS ITS DIPLOMATIC OPTIONS
Bottom Line Up Front: THE SOUFAN CENTER –  25.5.22
  • Iranian leaders are exchanging a wide range of visits with regional leaders to break Tehran out of its isolation.
  • Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s visit to Iran represents his attempt to consolidate outside support amid Russia’s distraction with its war against Ukraine.
  • Gulf state leaders are pressing Tehran to compromise on outstanding issues that are holding up a revival of the 2015 multilateral Iran nuclear agreement.
  • Oman is looking to Iran for new investment and gas supplies, as well as its cooperation in ending the war in neighboring Yemen.
The recent flurry of high-level visits between Iran and regional states indicates that Tehran is succeeding in its campaign to break out of its isolation, even though it has not assuaged widespread wariness of its ultimate ambitions. During the month of May, Syrian President Bashar Al Assad and Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar visited Tehran, respectively, to meet with Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i and Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, and Raisi visited the Sultanate of Oman to meet with Sultan Haythim bin Tariq Al Said. Qatar and Oman are longtime allies of the United States, and their exchanges with Iran reflect, at least in part, an intent to advance not only the interests of the Persian Gulf states but also those of the United States. Syria’s Assad, by contrast, is a U.S. adversary and a pillar of Iran’s “axis of resistance” to what Tehran asserts is an attempt by the United States and its key ally, Israel, to exert regional hegemony.

Assad’s early May visit to Tehran – he last visited in February 2019 – represents an attempt to ensure that, with Russia heavily engaged in Ukraine, he has enough outside support to keep armed rebels at bay. Iranian and Russian military intervention during 2013-2015 were key to Assad’s defeat of the rebellion, which is now largely cornered in Idlib Province. Russia reportedly has been redeploying some of its regular and contract (Wagner Group) forces from Syria and Libya to Ukraine to compensate for huge losses in Ukraine. Assad no doubt fears that the drawdown of Russian forces, and particularly combat aircraft, from Syria will embolden the armed opposition. Assad visited Tehran seeking to shore up Iran’s commitment to continue helping exhausted Syrian regular forces and Syria’s economy. Iran is a major supplier of credits, grants, and oil to Damascus, which is extensively sanctioned by the United States and the European Union (EU) countries; Tehran’s financial help has been a key to Assad’s survival. In the course of the Assad visit, Iranian leaders also discussed Iran’s expanding investments in various segments of Syria’s economy. The investments in Syria provide financial benefit to Iran, helping Iranian leaders assuage domestic opposition to the intervention in Syria.

The high-level visit exchanges between Iran, Qatar, and Oman sought to not only lower Gulf tensions but also advance the U.S. objective of restoring the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement. Tehran’s willingness to exchange visits with Omani and Qatari leaders demonstrates its eagerness to engage with even those regional leaders who are strategically aligned with the United States. And, Oman and Qatar could prove useful to Iran because both Gulf states are proven mediators between Washington and its regional adversaries, including Iran, the Taliban, and the Houthi movement in Yemen. In the course of their meetings with their Iranian counterparts, Emir Tamim of Qatar and Sultan Haythim of Oman urged Iran to resolve the few outstanding issues holding up the full restoration of the 2015 multilateral Iran nuclear deal that the Trump administration abrogated in 2018. Oman and Qatar see the restoration of that agreement, which will include the lifting of sanctions on Iran, as not only lowering Gulf tensions but also facilitating the implementation of long-stalled Iran-Gulf projects and other commerce. The Gulf-Iran leadership visits build on a year-long Baghdad-brokered Iran-Saudi dialogue, the core objective of which is to prevent Iranian and Iran-backed attacks on shipping in the Gulf and on Gulf state installations. In the course of its reporting on the May visits, Iranian media added that President Raisi was planning to visit the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a key Saudi ally, although the visit apparently has been delayed over Iran’s objections to the expanding ties between the UAE and Israel.

Ending the conflict in Yemen, in which Iran supports Houthi rebels who control much of northern Yemen, is a particular concern for Oman’s leaders. Oman shares a long and tense border with Yemen and worries about spillover from that war. Muscat hosts some Houthi leaders as a safe space for them to conduct talks with outside actors and mediators. Omani officials want Iran and Saudi Arabia, at the very least, to pressure their Yemeni allies to extend a two-month ceasefire, if not resolve the conflict entirely. Although the Yemen issue is high on Muscat’s agenda with Iran, Raisi’s visit to Muscat highlighted expanding economic ties between them. The two leaders, both seeking to attract additional foreign investment, signed several memoranda of understanding to expand trade in various fields. Iran is already a large investor in Oman’s efforts to develop a trading hub at Al Duqm port. Iran also agreed to revive a project for a pipeline to carry Iranian gas to Oman; the project has been stalled by U.S.-Iran tensions since it was first agreed between the two governments in 2013. The decision to revive that pipeline project appears to reflect Omani optimism that the Iran nuclear deal will be restored; the technology and financing requirements for the pipeline would be impossible to secure unless U.S. sanctions on Iran are lifted. Although the May exchanges of visits between Iran and two key Gulf states might fuel a sense of optimism for a more peaceful and economically prosperous Gulf, all of the Gulf states still share wariness about Iran’s support for regional armed factions. Iran has utilized its allies to project power against the Gulf states and would not hesitate to do so when its interests are served – exchanges of high level visits notwithstanding.

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