MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: ERDOGAN FOREVER ! – USA bereiten sich auf eine weitere Erdogan-Ära in der Türkei vor

 

Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdogan ist der Favorit auf den Sieg in der heiß umkämpften Stichwahl in der Türkei, die Auswirkungen auf die Beziehungen zu Washington haben wird.Elisabeth Hagedorn AL MONITOR – 17. Mai 2023

WASHINGTON — Die türkischen Wähler werden noch in diesem Monat in einer hitzigen Stichwahl an die Urnen zurückkehren, die von den Vereinigten Staaten genau beobachtet wird.

Die Biden-Regierung bereitet sich auf weitere fünf Jahre mit Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdogan an der Macht vor, nachdem der dienstälteste Staatschef der Türkei die Wahlen am 14. Mai mit einem Vorsprung von mehr als vier Punkten beendet hatte. Da weder Erdogan noch sein wichtigster Herausforderer Kemal Kilicdaroglu eine einfache Mehrheit erhielten, wird das Land am 28. Mai in einer Stichwahl den nächsten Präsidenten der Türkei bestimmen.

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MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: Der nationalistische Kandidat der Türkei sonnt sich vor der Stichwahl zwischen Erdogan und Kilicdaroglu im Ruhm

 

Der amtierende Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdogan und sein säkularistischer Herausforderer Kemal Kilicdaroglu planen ihre Strategie hinter verschlossenen Türen, während der nationalistische Kandidat Sinan Ogan darüber nachdenkt, wen er unterstützen soll.

Sinan Ogan, türkischer Akademiker und Präsidentschaftskandidat, spricht am 16. Mai 2023 während eines Interviews mit Agence France-Presse in seinem Büro in Ankara. – Nazlan Ertan AL MONITOR  – 16. Mai 2023

IZMIR, Türkei – Die Präsidentschaftsrivalen der Türkei planten am Dienstag hinter verschlossenen Türen ihre Stichwahlstrategie, während Sinan Ogan, der nationalistische Kandidat, der in der ersten Runde unerwartet 3 Millionen Stimmen erhielt, sich im Ruhm sonnte und es genoss, als Königsmacher bezeichnet zu werden.

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MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: FINALE ANALYSE & FAKTEN ZUR WAHL IN DER TÜRKEI

Die Wahlergebnisse vom Sonntag lieferten unerwartete Ergebnisse. Im Gegensatz zu einigen Umfragen vor den Wahlen ging der amtierende Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdoğan als Spitzenreiter aus dem Präsidentschaftsrennen hervor, während ein erwarteter Sieg oder ein möglicher K.o.-Sieg in der ersten Runde durch den Hauptkonkurrenten Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu nicht zustande kam. BIANET  17.5.23

Neben den überraschenden Präsidentschaftsergebnissen sorgten die Parlamentswahlen in der Türkei auch für Überraschungen, indem sie neue Persönlichkeiten und politische Parteien einführten, was zu einer der nationalistischsten und konservativsten Zusammensetzungen des Parlaments in der 100-jährigen Geschichte des Landes führte.

Unvorhergesehene Ergebnisse für das Regierungsbündnis

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MESOP NEWS VON DER OSTEN BIS WESTEN : ALLE TÜRKEI ASTROLOGEN LAGEN FALSCH (UND KORRIGIEREN SICH NUN RASCH!)

Ein weiterer ungenügender Versuch ist dieser von Frau BÖGE von der FAZ:

Vor Stichwahl in Türkei : „Auch im zweiten Wahlgang wird Erdogan gewinnen“

Die Wirtschaftslage in der Türkei ist so schlecht wie seit mehreren Jahrzehnten nicht mehr. Der Demoskop Özer Sencar erklärt im F.A.Z.-Interview, warum die AKP-Wähler Präsident Erdogan trotzdem die Treue halten.

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MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: ELECTIONS MIGHT REFOCUS TÜRKIYE’S POLICIES

 
Bottom Line Up Front: THE SOUFAN CENTER  15-5-23
  • Neither President Recep Tayyip Erdogan nor his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, appear to have received enough votes (50%+) to avoid a runoff election on May 28.
  • Even if he prevails, the close contest might prompt Erdogan to alter at least some of his domestic policies in order to rebuild his support to earlier levels.
  • It remains unclear whether there will be enough support in the Turkish parliament – a 60% supermajority – to end Erdogan’s “executive presidency” and return to a parliamentary-based system of governance.
  • The United States and its European allies perceive that a defeat for Erdogan would lead to Turkish domestic and regional policies more aligned with those of the West, particularly regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine.
On May 14, Türkiye conducted a relatively peaceful and orderly election for president and the 600 members of the Grand National Assembly (parliament). Nearly 61 million Turkish citizens, including more than 3.4 million expatriates, were eligible to vote in the elections, and the turnout in Türkiye on election day reportedly exceeded the 88% in the previous general elections in 2018. Even voters in the country’s southeast, which was ravaged by a February 6 earthquake, were able to turn out in large numbers. Out-of-country voting, which began in late April, scored records with a turnout of 51% in 73 countries. In addition to the hundreds of thousands of election monitors deployed collectively by all the Turkish political parties, international observers were deployed across Türkiye. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) deployed a full monitoring mission of 350 members. Although the voting on election day was orderly, the May 12 announcement by the U.S.-based social media platform Twitter that it had blocked some content ahead of the election raised fears that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sought to shape the voting in his favor. Twitter justified the move as an effort to prevent the whole platform from being blocked by officials; the Erdogan government has previously blocked Twitter. The relatively smooth election – coupled with pledges by Erdogan to abide by the results – appears to have calmed global fears of post-election violence or instability or attempts by Erdogan to overturn adverse election results. However, Erdogan’s allies reportedly are questioning the results from some locations where he and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) are reported to have performed below expectations.

With the election completed without violence or major incident, the focus of Türkiye’s voters and politicians focuses on the races for president and for parliament. The main contest has been between Erdogan, who heads the AKP, and Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who heads the Republican People’s Party (CHP).  A third candidate, Sinan Ogun, finished far behind the other two, and a fourth candidate, Muharrem Ince, dropped out of the race on May 12 – a development that was expected to help Kilicdaroglu. As of late on May 14, with more than 90% of ballots counted, the contest appears to be close, with neither candidate apparently achieving the 50%+ majority to avoid a runoff. However, most sources placed Erdogan at about 49% of the vote, ahead of Kilicdaroglu by about 5%, but apparently still short of the total needed for a first-round victory. The election for Turkey’s 600-seat parliament was held concurrently, and the outcome of that vote could be crucial for Türkiye’s system of governance. If Kilicdaroglu becomes president, the six-party alliance that supports him would need a vote of 360 members (60% supermajority) to trigger an end to the executive presidency that Erdogan has established. Opponents have viewed his executive presidency as a cornerstone of Erdogan’s backsliding toward authoritarianism and away from democracy and freedom of expression. Returning to a parliamentary system has been a key plank of the CHP and Kilicdaroglu. The country’s pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party, which is running in a leftist alliance, also supports such a transition.

At the same time, even if Erdogan is re-elected, it can be argued that he might shift course, to some extent, on his domestic policies. During the campaign, he sought strenuously to rebut allegations by the opposition that he had undermined the independence of Türkiye’s judiciary. He refuted criticism that he had undermined democracy by repressing opposition-controlled and independent media and enacting laws to prosecute his political critics. The fact that the will of the voters threaten Erdogan’s grip on power could lead him to temper some of the authoritarian bent he has placed on domestic policy. He might also revise some aspects of the economic policies that the opposition cited as the cause of rampant inflation – nearly 50% according to official figures – and the sharp drop in the value of Türkiye’s currency, the lira. For example, in order to financially benefit his middle-class, conservative base, Erdogan has insisted on low interest rates – the opposite strategy advocated by professional economists who maintain that interest rates need to rise to reduce runaway inflation. Erdogan’s interest rate policy has demonstrated that the Central Bank and other economic institutions are not independent but instead are controlled by Erdogan’s presidential office.

A victory by Kilicdaroglu in a runoff would likely be welcomed in Washington and European capitals, particularly insofar as Kilicdaroglu advocates enacting new human rights and other laws that would further Türkiye’s attempts to obtain membership in the European Union. He also advocates a closer relationship with Türkiye’s other NATO partners, and he would likely drop the conditions Erdogan has placed on Sweden’s membership in the alliance. U.S. and European leaders had been hoping that an opposition victory in Türkiye would lead Ankara to shift decisively away from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Although any Turkish leader would need to engage with Russia as a Black Sea power and potential adversary, Washington and European capitals have criticized Erdogan for refusing to enforce Western sanctions against Russia imposed to try to cripple Moscow’s capacity to fund its war effort against Ukraine. A loss by Erdogan’s AKP would also presumably produce a reorientation in Turkish domestic and foreign policy back toward the secularism that underpinned the founding of the Turkish state. Erdogan and the AKP, which have governed for nearly two decades, have supported greater emphasis on Islam and Islamic tradition in Türkiye’s institutions and social life. Erdogan’s government has supported regional Islamist movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood and a Brotherhood affiliate, the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas – the latter of which is named a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) by the United States. Erdogan’s support for Islamist movements has hindered his efforts to improve relations with Israel over the past year, although Israel has been receptive to his overtures in the interest of reducing regional tensions.

 

MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: DIE TÜRKEN STEHEN ZUM SULTAN ! – Vor Stichwahl in Türkei : „Auch im zweiten Wahlgang wird Erdogan gewinnen“

Von Friederike Böge, Ankara FAZ – -Aktualisiert am 15.05.2023

  • Der zurückliegende Oppositionskandidat Kemal Kilicdaroglu verlor bisher alle Wahlen, an denen er teilnahm.  

Die Wirtschaftslage in der Türkei ist so schlecht wie seit mehrere Jahrzehnten nicht mehr. Der Demoskop Özer Sencar erklärt im F.A.Z.-Interview, warum die AKP-Wähler Präsident Erdogan trotzdem die Treue halten.

In Ihrer letzten Umfrage vor den Wahlen hat Ihr Institut prognostiziert, dass Kemal Kilicdaroglu mit 49,1 Prozent die meisten Stimmen würde und Präsident Erdogan nur 46,9 Prozent. Das Ergebnis ist nun umgekehrt ausgefallen. Wie erklären Sie sich das?

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MESOP MIDEAST WATCH ANALYSIS : Turkey Briefing By AMBERIN ZAMAN – AL MONITOR

Erdogan victory would deal big blow to Turkey’s democracy, but will it be fatal?

 

13-5-23 – Millions of Turks will head to the polls on Sunday to cast their ballots for a new parliament and president. The twin elections are the most closely watched and consequential since the country voted for a new civilian government in 1983 after the generals decided to hand back power. Today, that picture has been turned on its head.

A democratically elected government led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has brought Turkey closer to the tightfisted rule of the junta than any of its predecessors in a downward spiral accelerated by the single-man system rammed in through a controversial referendum in 2017 that scrapped its parliamentary one.

The contest is being cast in apocalyptic terms as a fight between freedom and dictatorship, between recovery and economic ruin. As of today, some respectable pollsters show the main opposition’s presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leading Erdogan by as much as five percentage points. That is a broad enough margin to keep Erdogan from refusing to concede or resorting to fraud.

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MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: DIE KURDEN DER TÜRKEI HABEN VON DER WAHL WENIG ZU ERWARTEN!

Wahl ohne Alternative: „Die Kurden wählen nur das geringere Übel“

Bei den Türkei-Wahlen spielen die Kurden eine zentrale Rolle. Ihre Stimme könnte das Schicksal des Landes verändern. Expertin Dastan Jasim spricht von „Alternativlosigkeit“.

Von Dastan Jasim TAGESSPIEGEL  12.5.23

Am 2. Mai, anderthalb Wochen vor den Türkei-Wahlen, wurde der Straßenmusiker Cihan Aymaz, der häufig im Istanbuler Stadtteil Kadiköy auftrat, Opfer eines rassistischen Mordes. Ein Passant hatte Aymaz aufgefordert, das bekannte nationalistische Lied „Ölürüm Türkiye“ (Ich sterbe für dich, Türkei) zu singen. Eine offene Provokation, da Aymaz dafür bekannt war, häufig politische kurdische Lieder zu singen.

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MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: DIE NEUEN TÜRKISCHEN AKW´S SIND AN RUSSLAND FEST GEBUNDEN!

Wahlen in der Türkei: Kilicdaroglus Annäherung an die USA und die NATO wird durch Russland-Verbindungen behindert

Selbst wenn der Sieg der Opposition die Beziehungen der Türkei zur NATO wiederbelebt, gibt es nach Ansicht von Analysten keine Chance, dass Ankara die Beziehungen zu Russland abbricht. Jared Szuba 11. Mai 2023 AL MONITOR

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MESOP MIDEAST WATCH TURNING-POINTS: Beziehungen zwischen Saudi-Arabien und der Hamas: An einem Wendepunkt?

Die Beziehungen zwischen Saudi-Arabien und der Hamas verbessern sich, was durch den Besuch einer Hamas-Delegation im Königreich und die Freilassung der dort festgehaltenen Hamas-Gefangenen gekennzeichnet ist. Sollte dies für Israel ein Grund zur Sorge sein?

INSS Insight Nr. 1722, 11. Mai 2023 Yohanan Tzoreff   Yoel Guzansky  ISRAEL

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