MESOP DEBATE SUMMARY / TOP OF THE AGENDA : U.S. DIPLOMATS CONTRA OBAMA – COMMENTARIES BY RFE/RL – MIDDLE EAST EYE – CNN – CFR – NEW YORK TIMES

Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter

TOP OF THE AGENDA

U.S. Officials Urge Strikes on Assad in Dissent Memo

More than fifty U.S. State Department officials signed a memo urging the United States to carry out air strikes against the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The memo, distributed through the department’s dissent channel (NYT), represents a sharp break with the U.S. administration’s policy in Syria, which has emphasized actions against the self-proclaimed Islamic State over the ouster of Assad. Washington and Moscow have publicly said they will work together to persuade the Syrian president to negotiate a settlement with his opponents (Middle East Eye). On Thursday, a U.S. defense official (Reuters) said Russian aircraft struck U.S.-supported rebels fighting the Islamic State in southern Syria. Russia’s foreign minister responded by saying that the United States may be relying on groups like the al-Qaeda offshoot Jabhat al-Nusra to oust Assad (RFE/RL).

ANALYSIS

“The memo says that neither Assad nor Russia have taken past ceasefires and negotiations seriously and suggests a more robust military approach was needed to force a transitional government in Syria. President Barack Obama has resisted wading deeper into the Syria conflict, but officials familiar with the memo said the State Department officials could be trying to force a policy debate in the upcoming elections. Hillary Clinton has promised a tougher policy toward Assad, while Donald Trump has promised to get tough on ISIS but would work with Russia,” writes Elise Labott for CNN.com.

“If the parties on the ground and key outside actors forgo overly ambitious political objectives and prioritize extending the ceasefire, humanitarian assistance, and local governance, there is at least a chance that the nightmare Syrians and their neighbors have been living for more than five years can be brought to an end,” write James Dobbins, CFR’s Philip Gordon, and Jeffrey Martini in a recent Rand report.

“Despite talk of a ‘regime’ and ‘opposition,’ Syria today is a mosaic of tiny fiefs. The government has ceded control of stretches of land to Iran, Russia and Hezbollah. Its opponents range from the apocalyptic Islamic State to a coterie of tiny insurgent groups led by local warlords reliant on foreign donors. On all sides of the conflict, warlords mark territory with armed checkpoints. These low-level bosses have tasted power; it’s hard to imagine they will readily submit to any national government,” writes Thanassis Cambanis for the New York Times.