TODAY’S MESOP OPINION : ABOUT KESSAB – A long term Victory for Assad
The takeover of the town of Kessab is a case in point. Two weeks ago the strategic coastal village was captured by rebel forces, prompting scores of predominantly Armenian-Christian residents to flee. Rebel groups including Jabhat al-Nusra – an affiliate of al-Qaida – took control of the town, and in doing so gained their first stronghold on the Mediterranean shore.
That event sparked a storm of anxious and emotional protest from the global Armenian community, channeled through a social media campaign to #SaveKessab (even Kim Kardashian piped in). Rumors of massacres, fueled by dubious photos and videos spread online, played into long-held Armenian traumas and a heightened sense of vulnerability. Rebel groups and opposition leaders tried to allay their fears, while Assad supporters stoked them, joining the chorus and amplifying the narrative of terrorists taking over a Christian town.
In this week’s melee, facts were hard to find and fear was the overriding sentiment. On the ground, the invasion and disrupted life of a town created yet another ripple of displacement – a whole village population transposed into refugees.
In a bigger sense, Kessab served as snapshot of the raw nerves of Syria’s minorities: the product of a real sense of loss combined with the hysteria of imagined worst-case scenarios. As the events of war strike those sensitivities, they activate tribal links and survival instincts that polarize the Syrian people. In doing so, they further fragment the country.
So while Kessab is a tactical and strategic win for rebels on the battlefield, it may ultimately strengthen the hand of President Bashar al-Assad. Fear and desperation drive minorities to reach for what they know – a steady hand that can theoretically protect them. With Assad almost certainly running for re-election, that solidifies one more camp in his corner.