The Islamic Republic Of Iran Will Collapse Only If Its Ethnic Minorities Are Supported
MESOP MIDEAST WATCH – MEMRI Daily Brief No. 428 – By: Himdad Mustafa Introduction 12-11-22
International media and most analysts observing Iran’s protests have so far focused on the anti-theocratic sentiments and economic factors that drive mass grievances, leaving out the ethnic dimension. However, understanding Iran’s periphery and the grievances of its ethnic minorities is essential in explaining the recent revolution in Iran and the government’s disproportionate use of force against ethnic minorities.
Iran’s population is estimated at around 87,000,000, roughly half of whom are ethnic Persians that predominantly live in central Iran, the rest being Kurds, Baluchis, Azeris, Arabs, Turkmen, Lurs, and Caspian ethnic groups. Although the successive regimes in Iran have succeeded in tackling ethnic uprisings, they lost the ideological and political war against minority ethno-nationalisms.
Since the foundation of modern Iran in 1925, there has been little support for the central government or its ideology and politics in the ethnic regions of the country. The state has therefore viewed ethnic minorities and their political struggle for survival as an existential threat to its integrity. Nevertheless, through their growing opposition to the regime’s minority policies and systematic discrimination, ethnic groups across Iran have become a crucial force turning minority politics and ethnic mobilization into an important space of resistance and movement for political change in the country.
Balochi Leader Calls For A Referendum On Self-Determination
Since the early 2000s there have been signs of rising ethno-nationalism and increased alienation among Iran’s ethnic and religious minorities, to the extent that some high Iranian officials have issued warnings. For instance, in late 2004, the minister of intelligence, Ali Younesi, reported that the nature of future crises in Iran will not necessarily be political but rather ethnic and social. The Islamic Majlis Center for Research, an Iranian government think tank, warned in a 2005 report that the country will face more serious internal unrest unless the government would better address the needs of its ethnic minorities.
In recent years, Tehran has faced serious security challenges in its border provinces as the ethnic minorities – particularly Kurds, Ahwazi Arabs, and Balochis – have engaged in direct armed clashes with the regime. Last year, Iran’s intelligence ministry stated that the regime destroyed 100 “terrorist groups” operating in the border regions in the southern, southeastern, and western parts of the country, which are inhabited predominantly by ethnic minorities.
In response to the regime’s brutal crackdown on Balochi people, Iran’s top Sunni cleric and the de facto leader of the Balochi nation Molavi Abdolhamid recently called on Iranian authorities to hold a referendum on self-determination. On November 4, during a Friday prayers sermon in the city of Zahedan, the provincial capital of Sistan-Baluchestan province, Abdolhamid said: “Hold a referendum with international observers. Officials, listen to the cry of the people. People have been [protesting] in the streets for 50 days now; you cannot push them back by killing and imprisoning them, because they have seen blood and they have had their own killed. Hold a referendum and see what the people of Iran want, and with what kind of change they will be happy.”