MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: Netanyahu within reach of comeback in Israeli election
Last polls before tomorrow’s elections predict that opposition head Benjamin Netanyahu is very close to achieving the 61-seat majority he needs in the Knesset to come back to power.Mazal Mualem AL MONITOR – October 31, 2022
TEL AVIV — Opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu decided to end his election campaign in the town of Or Yehuda, a midsized city near Tel Aviv, where he traditionally enjoys enormous popularity. However, in the last election in March 2021 some of his supporters there didn’t bother voting. They were already worn-out.
Over the past few weeks, Netanyahu held similar campaign events in dozens of bastions of support for him and his Likud party. Similarly to Or Yehuda, in these places as well voting rates have dropped in the most recent election round. Looking back, this was one of the major factors that led to Netanyahu’s defeat. In his meetings this time around, Netanyahu has been trying to reach out personally to those Likud supporters who had not voted. He even visited people at home, sometimes two or three Likud-supporting families in one evening.
At the same time, he also increased his media appearances. What was different this time was that he only gave interviews to right-wing outlets that supported him. He made a show of avoiding the studios of the big networks, even though he would have much more exposure there. Here, too, his goal was to focus on the more apathetic Likud voters.
According to the last polls authorized before election day, on Oct. 28, Netanyahu is very close to achieving his goal. The average results of all the polls give Netanyahu 60 seats, and a few extra votes, but still not the 61 he needs to get a Knesset majority. In other words, for the moment, the country is facing yet another stalemate.
As usual, Netanyahu is doing a good job playing with the hand he was dealt. He embraced ultranationalist Itamar Ben-Gvir, who happens to be the rising star in this election campaign. This morning, Netanayhu told the army radio station he “is not against” nominating Ben-Gvir public security minister in a future government, and that he himself has zealously maintained his alliance with the ultra-Orthodox. In a sense, he sees himself as the ultimate leader of all the right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties.
On Oct. 29, Netanyahu set out to Bnei Brak, the largest ultra-Orthodox city in Israel, to encourage the people there to vote. He did not call on them to vote for the Likud, but encouraged them to vote for the ultra-Orthodox parties, so as not to — allegedly — abandon the country to the left.
Netanyahu is admired by the ultra-Orthodox community. He has an inordinate amount of influence there, especially among the youth. In fact, he is more popular than ultra-Orthodox politicians. His decision to visit the heart of that community should encourage indifferent voters there to go to the polls as well.
In all the recent election campaigns, people said it would be Netanyahu’s last battle, and that because of his trial, he is really fighting for his freedom. The situation has proved that even though he did not manage to put together a government, he has never stepped off stage. No one in the Likud dared to challenge him as their leader.
In a rather supportive interview with the right-wing Channel 14 Oct. 30, Netanyahu was asked how he is doing. He answered that he was “very worried,” because of the deadlock in the polls. The image he used was borrowed from soccer: “We are very close to victory, but we still have to get the goal in the net.” He told his listeners that they are missing just one seat, and called on them to vote for the Likud.