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The United States cannot stabilize—or safely deprioritize—the Middle East without first stabilizing Iraq. Regional powers treat Iraq as a battleground to carry out proxy conflicts that harm US interests and exacerbate instability through the region. Stability begets stability; strengthening the Iraqi state such that foreign proxy wars cannot easily take place within its borders would reduce tensions in the region. A more resilient Iraqi state will be better protected from future foreign interference like internationally sponsored militia activities, political influence, and jihadism. A stable and sovereign Iraq could provide a physical and political buffer between its heavyweight neighbors: Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, and between Iran and its projects in Syria and Lebanon. That buffer could help enable a desired pivot in US policy and security focus away from the Middle East and toward pressing concerns elsewhere in the world.
Iraq’s stability is, in many ways, outside its control; its difficult internal dynamics are likely to be overwhelmed by larger and more threatening regional ones. Iran, Saudi Arabia, other Gulf states, Israel, and Turkey each play out their conflicts on Iraqi territory, destabilizing Iraq and the broader Middle East. Of these conflicts, those involving Iran are the most dangerous and carry the highest risk for Iraq and the region. The United States must work to manage or suppress the most negative external conflicts, thereby creating room for Iraq’s domestic system to evolve into one that is stronger, less corrupt, and more representative.
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