MESOPOTAMIA NEWS ANALYSIS : INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES / ISRAEL
INSS Insight > The Changing of the Guard: Israel at the Outset of the Biden Era
- Nov 2020 – INSS – After a volatile and charged campaign marked by unexpected events and reversals, the American people chose Joe Biden, former Vice President, as their next President. The agenda of the President-elect, who will enter the White House on January 20, 2021, is replete with a host of urgent needs and challenges, but most share one feature: a change in policy, after four years of the Trump administration. What will the United States look like under Biden, and what are the implications of this new policy for Israel?
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In relation to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Biden administration can be expected to reaffirm principles of past Democratic administrations and reinstate the vision of two states for two peoples as the preferred resolution to the conflict; to reopen the PLO representative office in Washington; and to condemn unilateral Israeli measures, beside annexation initiatives, that have drawn no response from the Trump administration. These include settlement expansions and the demolition of Palestinian buildings, whether as an Israeli response to terrorism or to Palestinian construction in Area C. The administration can be expected to view this stance as contributing to the US ability to resume its role an acceptable mediator to the Palestinians, as well as to Israel.
The Iran issue will likely be the focus of the administration’s Middle East policy. In an opinion piece published during the campaign, Biden outlined his commitment to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons and to return the United States to the JCPOA if Iran fulfills its obligations, as outlined in the agreement. All this, however, is a precursor to continued negotiations – together with European partners – to extend the limits stipulated in the deal, and address regional tensions in a revised agreement. Biden has been opaque on the Iranian demand, presented as a precondition for entering negotiations, that all sanctions are lifted and compensation is made for the consequences of the re-imposed US sanctions. In any scenario, whether negotiations are renewed or Iran takes further escalatory steps, Israel should anticipate gaps between its interests and those of the United States.