MESOP NEWS : Wird sich Erdogans afghanischer Schachzug in Washington auszahlen?
Der allgemeine Eindruck ist, dass Ankaras Engagement für den Schutz des Flughafens Kabul nur darauf abzielt, die Gunst Washingtons zu gewinnen.
Semih Idiz Juli 30, 2021 AL MONITOR – Viele Türken sind zutiefst besorgt über die Bereitschaft von Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdogan, türkische Streitkräfte nach dem Abzug der US-Streitkräfte aus diesem Land zur Sicherheit am Flughafen von Kabul einzusetzen – trotz der inhärenten Gefahren einer solchen Mission.
Die Frage wird auch mit der frage nach dem dramatischen Anstieg der Zahl der afghanischen Flüchtlinge vermischt, die derzeit in die Türkei reisen, nachdem US-Präsident Joe Biden beschlossen hat, die US-Streitkräfte aus Afghanistan abzuziehen.
Das Thema verursacht eine zunehmend hässliche politische innenpolitische Debatte zwischen der Erdogan-Regierung und der Opposition und schürt auch rassistische Gefühle unter Türken gegen Araber und Afghanen.
Für die meisten erfahrenen türkischen Diplomaten ist Erdogans Bereitschaft, die Aufgabe des Schutzes des Flughafens von Kabul zu übernehmen, einfach eines seiner schlecht durchdachten Projekte.
“Zunächst einmal weiß niemand genau, ob dies Ankaras Angebot oder Washingtons Vorschlag war”, schrieb der pensionierte Botschafter Ali Tuygan in seinem Blog Diplomatic Opinion.
“Aber der allgemeine Eindruck ist, dass dies ein Angebot der türkischen Regierung war, Washington zu einer verständnisvolleren Haltung gegenüber türkisch-amerikanischen Differenzen zu bringen, indem sie türkische Truppen in Gefahr brachte”, fuhr er fort.
Turkish-American ties have been clouded for quite some time with multiple issues, including the question of Ankara’s purchase of Russian-made S-400 anti-missile defense systems that has resulted in US sanctions and other punitive measures being slapped on Turkey.
This has also contributed significantly to the serious downturn of the Turkish economy, as a result of which Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party are said to be losing domestic credibility.
The expectation in government circles appears to be that any improvement in Turkish-US ties will also help the Turkish economy, thus shoring up Erdogan’s domestic support.
Ankara has also been seeking means to improve ties with Israel in order to facilitate better ties with Washington.
Retired Ambassador Suha Umar believes that Erdogan’s decision to take on the security of Kabul airport is a sign of desperation.
“This is an act that is based more on necessity than anything else,” he told Al Monitor, pointing at Turkey’s economic crisis as well as Ankara’s weakened hand on the international stage.
“For a country in this situation to undertake such a mission that is fraught with uncertainty — and which will require resources in every respect — does not appear sensible,” Umar said. “All that is left is a situation that reflects desperation.”
Few believe that Turkey’s involvement in Afghanistan after the departure of US forces will provide any benefits for Ankara. Many recall that Turkey’s involvement in Syria and Libya also fell short of achieving their ultimate objectives.
The end result, it is feared, will be that Turkish forces will be placed at risk while Erdogan’s adventurism drags the country into a quagmire.
“Would this put Turkish troops in harm’s way? Yes, definitely. Because the Taliban does not have to take over Kabul to disrupt the functioning of the airport, it has many other means at its disposal,” Tuygan wrote.
Meanwhile, Erdogan’s approach to the whole question also appears to be deeply confused and riddled with contradictions.
Erdogan is trying to reach out to the Taliban, on the one hand, by using Islamic rhetoric and castigating “imperial powers” that he accuses of having meddled in that country for decades.
On the other hand, he is calling on the principal target of his anti-imperial rhetoric, namely the United States, to provide financial and logistical support for the Turkish military mission at Kabul airport.
How he expects the Taliban not to see through this glaring contradiction is anyone’s guess.
The Taliban clearly sees Turkish forces in Afghanistan as an extension of the US-led NATO mission in that country and has already used threatening language in calling on Turkey to also withdraw its troops.
Erdogan, nevertheless, appears to be relying on Sunni Islam as the lowest common denominator that will facilitate talks between Ankara and the Taliban.
“Turkey and the Taliban should be able to conduct these talks easily since there is nothing out of keeping with Turkey’s beliefs and their beliefs,” Erdogan told reporters recently during a visit to northern Cyprus.
Not surprisingly, these remarks created uproar among secular Turks who are castigating Erdogan for placing Turkey and the Taliban in the same category.
Even some of Erdogan’s staunchest supporters like Hurriyet columnist Ahmet Hakan have rejected the notion of any equivalence between the practice of Islam in Turkey and the radical Islamic outlook of the Taliban.
Hakan nevertheless argued that Turkey’s Islamic character could facilitate a dialogue with the Taliban.
In criticizing Erdogan’s remark, liberal commentator Taha Akyol, however, stressed Turkey’s democratic and secular character as a social state based on the rule of law.
“Are we not going to remain [in Afghanistan] under NATO’s umbrella?” Akyol also asked in his column for Karar daily. “It is wrong to look at the matter from the perspective of faith and to think that there is nothing out of keeping [between Turkey and the outlook of the] Taliban.”
Erdogan’s notion that Islam will bring Turkey and the Arab world closer also turned out to be a fallacy. This is clearly evident in the minimal support Ankara is getting from the Arab world over its involvements in Syria and Libya.
Umar pointed out that Ankara may be expecting the decision to take on the security of Kabul airport to improve ties with Washington, but stressed that the conditions for securing such an improvement are very different.
“If it could fulfill these conditions there would be no need for Turkey to take on any extra risks,” he said. He noted that taking on such extra risks is unlikely to improve ties with the United States.
Trying to appease the Taliban by claiming that Turkey and the Taliban share similar outlooks with regard to faith is also likely to stoke American suspicions regarding Turkish intentions.
“Was das für den Westen bedeutet, ist folgendes: ‘Wir teilen die gleiche Sichtweise wie eure Feinde.’ Es ist sehr schwer zu verstehen, welche Art von Argumentation oder Politik dies darstellt”, sagte Umar.
“Man muss die Zuverlässigkeit eines Verehrten in Frage stellen, der letzte Woche zugegeben hat, dass die Türkei ‘keine widersprüchlichen Probleme mit [den] Überzeugungen [der Taliban] hat'”, schrieb Aykan Erdemir von der Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“Diese Kommentare sollten als rote Fahnen inmitten der laufenden Verhandlungen zwischen Ankara und Washington über Erdogans Angebot dienen, türkische Truppen zur Bewachung des internationalen Flughafens von Kabul nach dem Abzug der USA einzusetzen”, fuhr Erdemir in einem Meinungsbeitrag für Newsweek fort.
Mit so vielen offenen Fragen, die unbeantwortet bleiben, wird die innenpolitische Debatte in der Türkei – gespickt mit viel Wut und Schuldzuweisungen – in den kommenden Tagen nur noch wachsen und könnte Erdogan viel weniger in der Hand lassen, als er mit seinem afghanischen Schachzug erwartet hatte.