- On October 31, 2019, four days after the killing of ISIS leader Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIS’s new spokesman officially announced the appointment of a new Caliph, codenamed Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi (ISIS has refrained from revealing his real name, in the ITIC’s assessment, for security reasons). An audiotape released by ISIS’s new spokesman calls on Muslims around the world to pledge allegiance to ISIS’s new leader and to rally around him. In addition, the spokesman calls on ISIS operatives in all the provinces to avenge Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s death while threatening the US. He also calls for the release of ISIS prisoners from prisons (following Al-Baghdadi’s call in his last audiotape released on September 16, 2019) and to devote a great effort to the battle for hearts and minds.[1]
- Even after the killing of Al-Baghdadi, ISIS’s intensive activity in Syria continues, mainly attacks against the Kurdish military force (SDF). This week, there were attacks in the Euphrates Valley, most of which took the form of activating IEDs, shooting attacks and targeted killings. In the area of Al-Raqqah, an oil tanker convoy en route from the Kurdish-controlled areas to the areas controlled by the Syrian regime was attacked (for the second time in the past two months). ISIS has apparently identified the oil trade as an Achilles heel which, if disrupted, would compromise the Kurds’ ability to finance their military power and self-government. In southern Syria, a Syrian intelligence officer and a Hezbollah operative were eliminated in targeted killings. In Iraq, there was an unusually small number of claims of responsibility. In the ITIC’s assessment, this was due to technical problems with the media network.
- The “routine” attacks in ISIS’s other provinces around the world continued this week, albeit at a relatively low level of intensity. The most noteworthy was an attack by ISIS operatives against a Mali army base in the southeast of the country, in which dozens of soldiers were killed (a spokesman for the Mali government reported 49 fatalities; ISIS claimed 70 fatalities). At the same time, ISIS’s various provinces around the globe have begun to pledge allegiance to the new leader. The first to do so was the Sinai Province, followed by additional provinces and individual operatives. More pledges of allegiance are expected to be announced in the near future.
Idlib region
Overview
The unilateral ceasefire declared by the Syrian army in the Idlib region was generally maintained. However, there were local ground attacks as well as sporadic exchanges of fire between the Syrian army and the rebel organizations (accompanied by Syrian and Russian airstrikes). This week, once again, incidents centered on the northwestern Idlib region.
Local ground attacks
- On November 1, 2019, the rebel organizations attacked Syrian army positions in the Kurd Mountains, about 40 km southwest of Idlib. The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham claimed that over 30 Syrian soldiers had been killed, including nine officers. Over 50 soldiers were allegedly wounded (Ibaa, November 2, 2019).
- On November 1, 2019, operatives of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham halted a local ground attack by the Syrian army in the Kabanah area. Several Syrian soldiers were killed (Ibaa, November 2, 2019). On November 3, 2019, the Syrian army fired artillery at the Kabanah area (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, November 3, 2019).
Airstrikes
- On October 31, 2019, Russian fighter jets carried out an airstrike against an ammunition depot of the rebel organizations in a village about 20 km west of Idlib. Several civilians were wounded (Khotwa, October 31, 2019). A website affiliated with the Syrian regime documented the explosion of an ammunition depot of the rebel organizations after air-to-surface missiles had been launched at it by Russian fighter jets (Muraselon, October 31, 2019). On October 4, 2019, it was reported that Syrian fighter jets had carried out airstrikes in the area of the town of Jisr al-Shughur, 30 km southwest of Idlib, and Al-Bashiriyah, about 20 km southwest of Idlib (Idlib Media Center, November 4, 2019).
Right: Areas where Russian and Syrian airstrikes were carried out (Google Maps). Left: Explosion of an ammunition depot of the rebel organizations following a Russian airstrike (Muraselon, October 31, 2019)
- On November 5, 2019, Syrian fighter jets attacked targets in Jisr al-Shughur and the Kabanah area. In addition, Russian fighter jets carried out at least 15 airstrikes in the rural area south of Idlib (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, November 5, 2019).
Summary of the losses since the beginning of the Syrian army’s ground attack
- Since the beginning of the Syrian army’s ground attack in early May 2019, a total of 4,355 people have been killed in the Idlib region. Fatalities included 1,746 rebel organization operatives, including 1,149 operatives of jihadi organizations [bearing the brunt of the fighting]. Fatalities also included 1,507 soldiers and operatives of the Syrian army and the forces supporting it, and 1,102 civilians (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, November 4, 2019).
The Euphrates Valley
Al-Raqqah area
Attack against oil tankers
The most prominent ISIS activity in the Al-Raqqah area was an attack against a convoy of oil tankers moving from areas controlled by the Kurds to areas controlled by the Syrian army, as part of the trade in oil products taking place between the Kurds and the Syrian regime. It should be recalled that about two months ago, ISIS carried out a similar attack. It appears that ISIS has identified the oil trade as an Achilles heel, considering that hitting it will compromise the Kurds’ ability to maintain their military power and self-government.
- On November 3, 2019, ISIS operatives fired machine guns at a convoy of oil tankers about 50 km east of Al-Raqqah. The tankers were en route to areas under Syrian army control. Several tankers caught fire. In another incident, a hand grenade was thrown at a tanker 5 km northwest of Al-Raqqah. The tanker caught fire. According to ISIS’s statement, the tankers which were attacked were owned by Syrian MP [Hussam] al-Qaterji who, along with his brother, commands a militia of the Homeland Defense Forces (Telegram, November 4, 2019).
- On September 9, 2019, it was reported that ISIS operatives mounted on motorcycles had attacked a convoy of eight oil tankers about 50 km northwest of Al-Raqqah. The drivers of the tankers were shot to death and the tankers were set on fire. According to a website affiliated with the rebel organizations, the Al-Qaterji company (the owner of the tankers) is the logistical arm responsible for transferring (crude) oil from oil wells controlled by the SDF to areas under Syrian army control. The oil is carried by a tanker fleet especially allocated for this purpose (Khotwa, affiliated with the rebel organizations, September 9, 2019).
The area of Deir ez-Zor, Al-Mayadeen, and Albukamal
ISIS continued its intensive activity in the Euphrates Valley, in the area between Deir ez-Zor and Albukamal. This week, ISIS’s activity mainly included the detonation of IEDs and the targeted killing of SDF fighters and those considered SDF intelligence operatives.
- Following are highlights of ISIS’s activity according to ISIS’s reports:
- On October 30, 2019, an SDF intelligence operative was targeted by machine gun fire in Hawaij, 4 km northeast of Al-Mayadeen. He was killed (Telegram, October 30, 2019).
- On October 31, 2019, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle in the Hajin area, 25 km north of Albukamal. Two SDF commanders were killed (Telegram, November 1, 2019).
- On October 31, 2019, a vehicle carrying SDF fighters was targeted by machine gun fire about 40 km northeast of Al-Mayadeen. SDF fighters were killed or wounded (Telegram, November 2, 2019).
- On November 1, 2019, two IEDs were activated against two houses of SDF fighters in Diban, 5 km east of Al-Mayadeen. Both buildings were destroyed (Telegram, November 2, 2019).
- On November 1, 2019, an IED was activated against the house of an SDF fighter in Al-Basira, 14 km north of Al-Mayadeen. He was wounded (Telegram, November 2, 2019).
- On November 3, 2019, an IED was activated against the building of the SDF local council in Diban, 5 km east of Al-Mayadeen. The building was completely destroyed (Telegram, November 3, 2019).
- On November 3, 2019, a Syrian army intelligence operative was targeted by machine gun fire about 20 km southeast of Al-Mayadeen. He was killed (Telegram, November 3, 2019).
- On November 3, 2019, several IEDs were activated against the house of an SDF commander in Abu Hardoub, about 20 km southeast of Al-Mayadeen. The house was destroyed (Telegram, November 4, 2019).
- On November 2, 2019, four IEDs were activated against a Syrian army vehicle on its supply route in the rural area east of Al-Mayadeen. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, November 4, 2019). The simultaneous activation of four IEDs is unusual.
- On November 3, 2019, an IED was activated against the house of an SDF fighter in the village of Hawaij, about 10 km north of Deir ez-Zor. The house was damaged (Telegram, November 5, 2019).
- On November 4, 2019, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle in the area of Diban, 5 km east of Al-Mayadeen. The passengers were wounded (Telegram, November 4, 2019).
- On November 4, 2019, an SDF intelligence operative was targeted by machine gun fire in Abu Hardoub, about 20 km southeast of Al-Mayadeen. He was killed (Telegram, November 5, 2019).
- On November 4, 2019, IEDs were activated against the building of the SDF local council in Al-Jaradi, 19 km southeast of Al-Mayadeen. The building was completely destroyed (Telegram, November 5, 2019).
- On November 5, 2019, an SDF fighter was targeted by machine gun fire in the village of Diban, 5 km east of Al-Mayadeen. He was killed (Telegram, November 5, 2019).
Northeastern Syria
Attacks inside the Kurdish control area
- ISIS continues its attacks inside the Kurdish control zone. This week, its attacks included the detonation of a motorcycle bomb, targeted killings, and the activation of IEDs. Following are the main activities (according to ISIS’s reports):
- On October 31, 2019, a parked motorcycle bomb exploded near two SDF vehicles in northwestern Al-Hasakah. Six SDF fighters were killed or wounded (Telegram, October 31, 2019).
- On November 3, 2019, an SDF fighter was shot and killed east of Al-Shadadi (about 50 km south of Al-Hasakah) (Telegram, November 3, 2019).
- On November 3, 2019, an IED was activated against two vehicles of the SDF intelligence on the oil route, about 60 km northeast of Al-Hasakah. Two SDF fighters were killed and several others were wounded (Telegram, November 3, 2019).
- On November 4, 2019, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle about 30 km south of Al-Hasakah. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, November 4, 2019).
- On November 3, 2019, an SDF fighter was shot and killed in Markada, about 80 km south of Al-Hasakah (Telegram, November 4, 2019).
- On November 5, 2019, an SDF fighter was shot and killed in southwestern Al-Hasakah (Telegram, November 5, 2019).
Southern Syria
- On November 3, 2019, a Syrian intelligence officer was shot and killed in the village of Ankhal, about 40 km north of Daraa (Telegram, November 4, 2019).
- On November 4, 2019, a Hezbollah operative was shot and killed in Al-Muzairib, about 10 km northwest of Daraa (Telegram, November 5, 2019).
ISIS operatives in the Hawran area (the Syrian Golan Heights) pledging allegiance to ISIS’s new leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi (Telegram, November 5, 2019). This was the first region in Syria which released a pledge of allegiance report.
Main events in Iraq
ISIS’s terrorist and guerrilla activity
- In the past week, there was a drop in the number of claims of responsibility issued by ISIS for attacks carried out by its operatives in Iraq. In the ITIC’s assessment, this is due to technical problems of ISIS’s media network[2]. Following are several of ISIS’s attacks (according to claims of responsibility):
- On October 28, 2019, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle east of Fallujah. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, October 30, 2019).
- On October 31, 2019, an Iraqi army soldier was shot and killed about 25 km north of Baghdad. Two more IEDs were activated against two Iraqi army vehicles that arrived at the scene to offer assistance. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, November 1, 2019).
- On November 1, 2019, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army foot patrol 7 km southeast of Mosul. Several soldiers were killed or wounded (Telegram, November 2, 2019).
Counterterrorist activities by the Iraqi security forces
- Although the main focus of the Iraqi regime’s attention is the wave of protests in Baghdad and the southern provinces, this week the Iraqi security forces continued their counterterrorism activities against ISIS in western and northern Iraq. The main activities were as follows:
- On October 31, 2019, a Popular Mobilization force, operating on the basis of intelligence, set up an ambush about 20 km southwest of Kirkuk. Three ISIS operatives were killed (al-hashed.net, October 31, 2019).
- On October 31, 2019, a Popular Mobilization force operating about 80 km northeast of Baqubah located three ISIS “guesthouses” (al-hashed.net, October 31, 2019).
- On November 3, 2019, Iraqi security forces located 10 IEDs and two rockets belonging to ISIS in an oil depot in Ramadi. The IEDs and rockets were neutralized (Iraqi News Agency, November 3, 2019).